Noman Cost & Melt Rate Tracking (2023)

Fallen London
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It’s that magical time of year again, where we make new friends and, as thermodynamics demands, lose them. It’s a yearly tradition to track Noman Melts (see 2022, 2021, 2020, 2019, 2018, 2017, 2016 ) and this year is no exception. We expect the melt rates and costs will match last year’s formulas, but getting data and predicting patterns is only half the fun of making friends.

When posting your melt loss, the time may be relevant as we expect the costs and melts increase every day at 9:00 am UT. Best of luck and have fun! Please note the forecasts below (and on the wiki) are only meant to advise you and may not be completely accurate since:
(1) The future hasn’t happened yet
(2) These figures depend on the costs and melts behaving the same as last year, and
(3) The melt estimates are based on our own data and may be missing some outliers at either end. You may get a result slightly outside these bounds, but as a consolation prize you get to help correct our estimates!

Seven Day Noman Cost Forecast (see the wiki for a full table):

  • Jan 29: CLOSED

Seven Day Noman Loss Forecast (see the wiki for a calculator)

  • Feb 03: 54 - 87 ToL
  • Feb 04: 56 - 88 ToL
  • Feb 05: 57 - 90 ToL
  • Feb 06: 59 - 92 ToL
  • Feb 07: 61 - 94 ToL
  • Feb 08: 63 - 96 ToL
  • Feb 09: 64 - 98 ToL
  • Feb 10+: lots! But you can get your tattoo on the 9th, so why worry?
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6th January, ~8:01 UTC:
Noman “BoucheAmuse” lost 20 x Noman’s Friend (new total 80/100)

6th January, ~8:37 UTC:
Noman “Apéritif” lost 31 x Noman’s Friend (new total 74/105)

Rough start, but still within our range!

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Wow, I love it! :rofl:

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6th January, 13:00 UTC. You’ve lost 29 x Noman’s Friend (new total 71).

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6 January, 3:30 US Eastern (which is 8:30PM UTC? right?), You’ve lost 30 x Noman’s Friend (new total 70 - A little time remains to the Noman)

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8th January, ~8:35 UTC:
Noman “Confit de Moi” lost 21 x Noman’s Friend (new total 136/157)

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13th January, 14:00 GMT: You’ve lost 25 x Noman’s Friend.

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13th January, ~8:01 UTC:
Noman “BoucheAmuse” lost 17 x Noman’s Friend (new total 81/118)
13th January, ~8:37 UTC:
Noman “Apéritif” lost 32 x Noman’s Friend (new total 78/141)
13th January, ~14:21 UTC:
Noman “Déjeuneige” lost 22 x Noman’s Friend (new total 1626/1648)

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13th January, 14:01 UTC: You’ve lost 32 x Noman’s Friend (39 remains).

I seem to be rolling high numbers and certainly won’t last another week. Fortunately I don’t expect to need it; Noman Knows is already up to 12.

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11th January, lost 26 x Noman’s Friend (new total 74).

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Fri Jan 13 2023 00:04:40 GMT - lost 18 Friend

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Fri Jan 13, 3:30 US EST, You’ve lost 32 x Noman’s Friend (new total 38)

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11th January, 12:17 GMT, lost 24 x Noman’s Friend

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15th January, ~8:35 UTC:
Noman “Confit de Moi” lost 48 x Noman’s Friend (new total 88/157)

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18th January, 10:26 GMT, lost 52 x Noman’s Friend (new total 22).

Ouch.

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18th January, 13:42 CET, lost 53 x Noman’s Friend (new total 47).

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17th: Lost 28 friend
10th: lost 20 friend

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20th January, ~8:01 UTC:
Noman “BoucheAmuse” lost 49 x Noman’s Friend (new total 32/118)
20th January, ~8:37 UTC:
Noman “Apéritif” lost 57 x Noman’s Friend (new total 24/144)
20th January, ~14:21 UTC:
Noman “Déjeuneige” lost 46 x Noman’s Friend (new total 2222/2290)

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20th January: You’ve lost 31 x Noman’s Friend

Ah, yes, the phat Noman! I have a feeling that the Whitsun content will involve the hungry club! :expressionless: It is your duty to find out! Good luck!

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20th January, approx 8:30PM UTC-- You’ve lost 41 x Noman’s Friend (new total 7)

(Glad I slathered two buckets of lacre onto the little guy over the course of the week…!)

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