Noman Cost & Melt Rate Tracking (2022)

That time of year again, where we enviously look at our subterranean selves and their dwindling stock of &quotsnow&quot. With the advent of World Qualities, the costs seem to be changing more granularly, and who knows what the losses might do. So, post below for the benefit of all, and look below to get a sense of how bad things presently are whether you’re a would-be buyer, a noman worrier, or just morbidly curious.

Seven Day Noman Cost Forecast: Impossible until next Christmas, even if you locked yourself down in the Wicket

edited by elderfleur on 1/30/2022

9th January, ~10:00 UTC:
Noman &quotAphel&quot lost 10 x Noman’s Friend (new total 90).

Friday, 7 January 2:01 PM UTC

You’ve lost 35 x Noman’s Friend

Monday, 10 January 6:03 PM UTC

You’ve lost 39 x Noman’s Friend
edited by Nikito3 on 1/10/2022

Monday, January 10 18:16 EST:

“You’ve lost 31 x Noman’s Friend”

In case anyone is interested, here’s all of the Noman melt rate data for the last few years, gathered from this forum and the subreddit: Noman Info. I’m curious to see how this year might be different due to Word Qualities, etc.

Jan 11 2022 01:31:02 GMT-0800 (Pacific Standard Time): You’ve lost 15 x Noman’s Friend (new total 85 - The Noman endures).

Late, but-- Jan 7, 3:30PM US East: You’ve lost 17 x Noman’s Friend (new total 83 - The Noman endures)

A far cry from last year for me, if I remember correctly, when it was nearly the reverse…

Jan 7, 8:11 AM US central time (GMT-0600), lost 24 NF.

If I got a noman in the next few days, should it last until the Feast Of The Rose? From the spreadsheet I think it might, but I did get a bit lost.

[quote=Abzot Tralfaz]If I got a noman in the next few days, should it last until the Feast Of The Rose? From the spreadsheet I think it might, but I did get a bit lost.[/quote] If Melt Rate matches last year and Lilac opens up shop as predicted on the second Thursday of February, we’ve got 4 weeks of melt to contend with projected to eat up 265 - 385 Taste of Lacre (random range every week; you’re lucky or you’re not) so if you want to be safe you want to pump your Noman up to at least 380 Friend, or even higher. But if you wait so you only have 3 hits from Time the Healer, it’s 230 - 320, and if you can manage 2 hits, you only need 180 - 240.

But, you might get lucky and need less, or unlucky and need more. That’s sort of the fun, depending upon your tolerance for random chance. Get a Noman today with 400 Friend stored up and you’re almost certainly fine, but maybe 250 was all you needed. Probably wasn’t, but just maybe… Or maybe you get incredibly unlucky 4 times in a row and even 400 Friend isn’t enough to keep your Noman alive. Unlikely, but with enough players rolling those dice it’s always a possibility!

Jan 14, 2:01 PM UTC: You’ve lost 36 x Noman’s Friend.

Jan 14, 14:46 - lost 27 x Noman’s Friend

Jan 7, 14:25 UTC You’ve lost 28 x Noman’s Friend.

Jan 14, 14:25 UTC You’ve lost 32 x Noman’s Friend.

Jan 7: lost 12 × Noman’s Friend.

Jan 14: lost 26 × Noman’s Friend on my main, lost 23 × Noman’s Friend on my alt.

Edit: Corrected the wrong date, it was of course 14th. It’s just, you know what’s the Number…
edited by Sir Reginald Monteroy on 1/19/2022

Jan 14, 3:30PM UST-- lost 26 x Noman’s Friend.

Jan 14: lost 29 Noman’s Friend.

Sir Reginald, are you a time traveler?

16th January, ~10:00 UTC:
Noman &quotAphel&quot lost 27 x Noman’s Friend (new total 63)

[quote=idyl]In case anyone is interested, here’s all of the Noman melt rate data for the last few years, gathered from this forum and the subreddit: Noman Info. I’m curious to see how this year might be different due to Word Qualities, etc.[/quote] Will you use this thread’s date this year?

Time to start recording mine and this year I’m going for only ~100 buckets. On the 14th my white friend lost 43 NF. Let’s see if there will be any changes so Mr. Tears will plan accordingly.
edited by Skinnyman on 1/17/2022

Monday, 17 January 6:03 PM UTC

You’ve lost 39 x Noman’s Friend (yeah, the same amount…)