Noman Melt Rate Tracking (2024)

Fallen London
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New year, new us (these ones are small and made of not-quite-snow). Here’s a thread to keep track of melt rates, as is tradition, and as is more interesting now that the melt formula has changed. See here for last year’s thread. When including melt information, kindly include the date and time to help us map it.

Two things worth noting. First, in previous years the Wicket was available until the 28th of January, but the wording seems to have changed to “The Last Friday of January” so I wouldn’t advise planning to purchase a snow friend after the 26th:
image

Second, we’ve been told the difficulty of the Tattoo in Gant and Memories of a Doubled Spring should be about the same, so the melt rates pre-Whitsun should not be wildly out of line with previous years, but all estimates are, necessarily, rough at this point.

The cost increases every day, and the values offered below assume it behaves the same as in previous years, capping out at 15 lacre and a Nodule of Pulsating Amber. The melt estimates were never based on the correct formula, and are now incorrectly copying an outdated formula, but should offer a vague suggestion of what kind of scale we’re operating on, at least. Please don’t depend upon these values, and always plan cautiously if you’re aiming for an achievement!

Seven Day Noman Cost Forecast (see the wiki for a full table):
Jan 26: CLOSED

Seven[ish] Day Melt Estimate (For entertainment only; not at all guaranteed):
Jan 28: 43-78
Jan 29: 45-80
Jan 30: 46-81
Jan 31: 48-82
Feb 01: 50-84
Feb 02: 52-86
Feb 03: 54-88
Feb 04: 56-90
Feb 05: 57-91
Feb 06: 59-93
Feb 07: 61-95
Feb 08: 62-95 Tattoo Day!

And finally, a quick poll: Are you building a noman this year? And how long do you plan it to last based on your preparations?

  • No noman for me, this year
  • I’m building a noman, but don’t plan for it to see the Feast of the Rose
  • I’m building a noman, but don’t plan for it to last beyond the Feast of the Rose
  • I’m building a noman, who’ll live beyond Feast of the Rose but not until Whitsun
  • I’m building a noman, and plan for it to see Whitsun
  • I’m building a noman, and plan for it to last beyond Whitsun

0 voters

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didont build up enough ToL, unfortunately(and assuming i’m understanding this correctly)-this is my first time ever getting to expirience the speciel events of fallen london, so i’ve just been Enjoying them at my leisure without any plans for anything. everyone of them that i expirinced so far has been excellent, btw-i particilarily enjoyed the fruits of the zee festivel, but hallowmas was without a doubt my favorite.

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As tempting as the second quality may be, I still can’t do it…! 1 year and the answer is still now. :slight_smile: But I love to have my white friend live an experience a lot!

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With the Weoseal, I wonder if Whitsun can be reached only via Pails and without any Tears.

A very high Notability enables you to grind Favourable Circumstances without looking at MW which can get you 8+ buckets per day (6 FC + 2 cards and some extra from Ama). After piling all the buckets, Woeseal get rids of multiple cards so you can feed your Noman all those buckets without fearing it will melt.

EDIT: I didn’t put any effort in this and the Noman which I got last night (~19h ago) already gulped 20 buckets. Only using Woeseal, but I have all Husbandry pets and few more extra cards in my deck.

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Ah, with my TtH on a Friday (yesterday) maybe I shouldn’t have acquired a Noman on Thursday (the day before yesterday)…

Anyway, yesterday Jan 5, 3:29PM US E-- You’ve lost 21 x Noman’s Friend (new total 79 - The Noman endures)

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7th January, ~08:00 UTC
Noman “Confit de Moi II” lost 14 x Noman’s Friend (new total 107/121).

Last year I ran 214 Pails / 31 Tears, and finished Noman construction on the 24th with a few days to spare (I also took at least one trip out to Mangrove College during the Noman period), so I think it’s quite possible (albeit demanding in terms of flipping Cards) even without a woesel to apply the 275 bucket equivalent. I still would recommend mixing in some Tears so you can spend some time not flipping Cards, but it’s obviously personal preference. This year I’m going 188 pails and 56 Tears which is pleasingly 2 Übergoats worth of snow and 1.5 Übergoats worth of Tears (ok, it’s actually 2.0064… and 1.4941… but that’s pretty close! It’s hard to get an exact number when your unit of currency is Goats)

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As an update, I recorded cards worth a frequency of 3460%. The 2 Woe cards occupy 2 slots, 1 can be a 5-deck lodging and 1 more standard frequency. We can get 3160% which means that 1 in ~6.3 cards is the Noman.

As for costs, I kept it chill this year too; only 7200 worth of NWs. But my all time costs of Nomans is close to 86k E!

I think I should look and see how much all my expensive achievements have ever cost me!

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Not running this year, but actively preparing for the next. Currently at 137 Tears, 131 NW, 578 Threnodies. Cheers to fighters against time and warmth.

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Hi Everybody!
So…
Mon Jan 8 20:02:51 GMT+0200
Noman MayBe lost 21 x Noman’s Friend (new total 538/559).

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12th January, ~03:45 UTC:
Noman “Escalope” lost 39 x Noman’s Friend (new total 61/100) [unlucky soul]
12th January, ~08:01 UTC:
Noman “BoucheAmuse II” lost 24 x Noman’s Friend (new total 76/100)
12th January, ~08:37 UTC:
Noman “Apéritif II” lost 23 x Noman’s Friend (new total 347/370)
12th January, ~14:22 UTC:
Noman “Déjeuneige III” lost 26 x Noman’s Friend (new total 1499/1525)

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12 January, 2:01 pm UTC. You’ve lost 24 x Noman’s Friend (new total 76).

I expect I’ll be able to pop him this weekend, next week at the latest. I don’t intend to get a second one, both to preserve my Quirks and also to keep my deck clear in anticipation of City in Silver.

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12th of January was very gentle with only 16 NF.

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…may I kindly ask what, exactly, is this “city in silver”, and whether it should concern me as one who did not engage in the Creation of a noman?

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City in Silver is the end of the railway plotline and releases on the 18th. I know you aren’t that far yet so don’t worry about it :) People are mostly worried about it to make progressing there quicker.

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O~kay, thank you very much oh great HexBeloved!

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Hahaha no problem! It’s always nice seeing you ask questions on here :)

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:)

(Why does this rule even exist?!)

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Mon Jan 15 20:02:51 GMT+0200
Noman MayBe lost 32 x Noman’s Friend (new total 1919/1951).

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Sun Jan 7: You’ve lost 19 x Noman’s Friend (new total 96 - The Noman endures)
Sun Jan 14: You’ve lost 45 x Noman’s Friend (new total 65 - A little time remains to the Noman)

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14th January, ~08:00 UTC
Noman “Confit de Moi II” lost 41 x Noman’s Friend (new total 66/121).