The IroNoman Marathon: Season 2

Fallen London
1

The Wicket is open and it seems like a reasonable time to open the new season of the IroNoman Marathon challenge. I am doing it a bit earlier this year than Erika did last year because there was some consternation last time about the changes to the process so I thought some additional lead-in time would not go amiss.

First a quick note to any new players who may not know what this is about. In Penstock’s Wicket you can buy a Noman. Every week your Noman will degrade на by a random amount and you can spend increasingly large amounts of resources to keep it alive. Any player can get a Noman and can get fun story out of it. In addition the Noman Storyline can grant a valuable item and hard to obtain Quirks. None of this requires keeping Noman alive for very long. However the truly dedicated can keep the Noman alive all the way until the next seasonal event - The Feast of the Rose. If they succeed they get a special tattoo, which is considered to be among the highest achievements of the game. WARNING: This is very much intended for endgame players. It is highly unlikely that you can achieve this unless you have prepared for this event with dedication.

This thread is intended to:[ul][li]Keep the list of those players who are participating[/li]
[li]Keep track of those players’ starting resources[/li]
[li]Keep track of the changing costs of the Noman and its rates of decay[/li]
[li]Discuss strategy and any changes to the content[/li][/ul]An important note about expectations. The rate of Noman’s decay is 1) random, 2) progressively increasing and 3) non-linear. We do not have the extact formula and Failbetter have explicitly stated the adjustments are made manually with regard to the previous year’s success. This is hard and is likely to be harder than last year. Any inferences we make from past data is speculative only and if you rely on it to plan your strategy you do so at your own risk! Failbetter have not made any promises or guarantees. You should only do this if you are prepared to run the risk of losing vast resources and not achieving your aim or if you are confident that you have over prepared (rather than merely prepared in line with historical data).

Secondly, last year there was some doubt as to whether a thread like this should exist at all. The suggestion was that somehow Failbetter was tracking our performance and then moving the goalposts in the process. This is not true.

All those caveats out of the way, here is some of the relevant info. Feel free to discuss and report your Noman decay rates.

Please report your Noman decay rates quoting the time/date of your TTH in GMT format (as that’s the Failbetter timezone)

Attempting
Genesis (SUCCESS) (50 pails + 2 ToL -> 556 NF; 375 NF at survival)
Barselaar (SUCCESS)
Gonen (SUCCESS)
idyl (SUCCESS)
James Sinclair (SUCCESS)
Scienceandponies (SUCCESS) (18 pails, 5 tears, 18 ToL)
navchaa (SUCCESS) (26 pails, 13 tears)
xenopus (SUCCESS)
hwoosh (SUCCESS)
CameoAppearance (SUCCESS)
Reshemin (SUCCESS
Flimflam (SUCCESS)
hellaGumshoe (SUCCESS)
alwaysmetara (SUCCESS)
Erika (SUCCESS)
Kaosu (SUCCESS)
Bootsy Fallens (SUCCESS)

Tattoo bearers (If I am missing anyone, please let me know)
NiteBrite
bjorntfh
Màiread
Sir Joseph Marlen
An Individual
colinsapherson
xenopus
Toran
LawrenceKeyworth
Erika
Mordaine Barimen
Kalix
Loiathal
hwoosh
CameoAppearance

Penstock’s Wicket opens - 06/01/17
Urchins stop selling pails - 23/01/17
One week Pail melt warning appears - 24/01/17 (or, possibly, 23/01/17)
Penstock’s Wicket closes - 01/02/17

Feast of the Exceptional Rose - 06/02/17
Lilac appears - 13/02/17

Noman price and decay rate watch

Prices (fixed cost: 1 Skyglass Knife, 3 Insights, 3 Lessons)

06.01 - 3 ToL, 1 x Deep Amber
07.01 - 3 ToL, 1 x Deep Amber
08.01 - 3 ToL, 1 x Deep Amber
09.01 - 5 ToL, 1 x Deep Amber
10.01 - 5 ToL, 1 x Deep Amber
11.01 - 5 ToL, 1 x Deep Amber
12.01 - 5 ToL, 1 x Deep Amber
13.01 - 7 ToL, 1 x Deep Amber, 1 x Warm Amber
14.01 - 7 ToL, 1 x Deep Amber, 1 x Warm Amber
15.01 - 9 ToL, 1 x Deep Amber, 1 x Warm Amber
16.01 - 9 ToL, 1 x Deep Amber, 1 x Warm Amber
17.01 - 9 ToL, 1 x Deep Amber, 1 x Warm Amber
18.01 - 9 ToL, 1 x Deep Amber, 1 x Warm Amber
19.01 - 9 ToL, 1 x Deep Amber, 1 x Warm Amber
20.01 - 12 ToL, 1 x Deep Amber, 1 x Warm Amber
21.01 - 12 ToL, 1 x Deep Amber, 1 x Warm Amber
22.01 - 12 ToL, 1 x Deep Amber, 1 x Warm Amber
23.01 - 15 ToL, 1 x Deep Amber, 1 x Pulsating Amber
24.01 - 15 ToL, 1 x Deep Amber, 1 x Pulsating Amber
25.01 - 15 ToL, 1 x Deep Amber, 1 x Pulsating Amber
26.01 - 15 ToL, 1 x Deep Amber, 1 x Pulsating Amber
27.01 - 15 ToL, 1 x Deep Amber, 1 x Pulsating Amber
28.01 - 15 ToL, 1 x Deep Amber, 1 x Pulsating Amber
29.01 - 15 ToL, 1 x Deep Amber, 1 x Pulsating Amber
30.01 - 15 ToL, 1 x Deep Amber, 1 x Pulsating Amber
31.01 - 15 ToL, 1 x Deep Amber, 1 x Pulsating Amber

Decay rates (Reported ranges)

10.01 - 21-50
15.01 - 36-65
23.01 - 51-80
30.01 - 51-80
01.02 - 91-120

edited by genesis on 2/18/2017

2

I’ll be participating!
edited by Barselaar on 1/6/2017

3

I did the ‘Marathon des Neiges’ last year, so will just be cheering participants on from the sidelines. If you need anything, like lots of coffee invites to up your MW/Notability to force-draw more Urchins cards, just let me know.

4

Just want to say good luck to everyone contending with death this year. Even with all the shenanigans obtaining my tattoos was one of my most memorable (if not exactly enjoyable) FL experiences. Feel free to hit me up for waves (I’m a correspondent) or moral support if you need it.

Love is sacrifice, true, but love also wins.

ETA: Luck, for heaven’s sake, LUCK. Please don’t lick your noman.
edited by Màiread on 1/6/2017

5

Best of luck to all of you! It’ll be harder without notability donation (making FC easier to acquire). I’ll be happy to help with MW attempts as well (I’ll be a Midnighterly again soon)

6

Well done!
Was just about to open a question about this year’s marathon.
I’ll be trying to gain a tattoo.
edited by Gonen on 1/6/2017

7

I’ll be attempting this year as well. As for my materials… I see you say this:

[quote=genesis]Secondly, last year there was some doubt as to whether a thread like this should exist at all. The suggestion was that somehow Failbetter was tracking our performance and then moving the goalposts in the process. This is not true.[/quote]But I also see that one of the admins says:

[ul][li] [color=rgb(255, 153, 0)]Inevitably, as people gather more data and develop more efficient strategies, the achievement gets easier. We want to preserve its prestige, so each year we look at the data and increase the rate of Noman decay accordingly.[/color][/li][/ul]So, at this point I’m not going to state my supplies or plans, since to me it’s clear that they’re looking at what people are working with, to some degree. We already know it’s going to be more difficult this year compared to last, and I’m not looking to make it any tougher than it is. If you or anyone from FB want to clarify if the goalposts are still in the process of moving, that’d help. Otherwise, I’m going to assume that [color=rgb(255, 153, 0)]Fallen London is a living game[/color] and things will be changing on their whims.
edited by idyl on 1/6/2017

8

Idyl, I am not FBG so can’t speak authoritatively but what Chris meant, I believe, is that they readjust the decay rate based on the previous year’s data. But they do it in a planned manner (likely, deciding on the rate well before the season even starts) and not in response to the day-to-day activity during the current season.

The main point is that FL is a living game, as you say, and constantly changes but FBG does not move goal posts mid-game or grief players for griefing’s sake

9

The problem is if it’s adjusted too often then only those who’ve prepped and gridded to maximum efficiency can achieve it. Which certainly preserves prestige, but practically makes it a requirement to participate in the forums here and work with everyone to get the necessary data, which not every player can do or will think to do. Just because it’s doable for most end game players now doesn’t make it any less prestigious. Having Connected Masters at high levels is prestigious but that’s also doable for any end game player.

10

[quote=genesis] FBG does not move goal posts mid-game or grief players for griefing’s sake[/quote]Not saying they’re griefing for griefing’s sake at all. It’s just that I know they adjust according to how players use the information available to them, and that’s their right. I’m not sure what evidence you have to make you certain that they won’t adjust anything mid-season. And I know that they’re not out to mess with people just to do so, but I also know that they want to adjust and change things to make sure things like this are still prestigious.

Again, if there’s anybody saying for certain that they won’t change thing mid-season, I have no problem with it. After last year’s SNAFU, I’m just being more cautious. I’m still working toward getting a Noman tattoo, but I just think giving the material/resources information away at this point might not be prudent, considering the past.

11

[quote=idyl]
I’m not sure what evidence you have to make you certain that they won’t adjust anything mid-season. [/quote]

I don’t have any evidence that this won’t happen this year. I was saying that is not what happened last year. My personal view is that there is no rational basis to even suppose that might happen but, as you say, this is not backed by hard proof.

12

If I don’t already have tattoos is it worth trying to bring a Noman to the feast? “The Face In The Snow” seems lamer than than the special tattoo, but should I try anyway if I’m prepared?

13

I will also be attempting to get the Noman tattoo this year, and will post my weekly Noman’s Friend loss rate once I’ve created a Noman.

However, I too prefer not to post the amount of supplies I’ve gathered, for reasons that have already been stated in this thread. For those who share my hesitancy, perhaps it might be better for us to delay posting this information until after the Feast of the Exceptional Rose has started? Then, those who are interested can compare the supplies gathered vs. rates of Noman’s Friend loss, to better plan for next year.

14

I too will be making my first attempt at a Noman. I had been working off of historical data and was unaware until just now that the difficulty is being increased. I’m now worried that my 14 pails and 5 tears (with 18 TOL once I turn in this widow quest) might be woefully inadequate, and that I should have been burning notability all this time.

Addendum: Is anyone certain when exactly Penstock’s Wicket closes? All I know is &quotlate January&quot, but I’d rather not go to purchase the Noman (I’ve heard later is better) and end up a day too late.
edited by Scienceandponies on 1/7/2017
edited by Scienceandponies on 1/8/2017

15

I will be participating. Haven’t yet bought my Noman and have starting resources 10 ToL, 26 snow and 13 tears. Am a bit apprehensive given my lowish ToL and lack of resources to buy more snow. Am also somewhat reluctant to grind FC but I know my luck is bad when it comes to things that aren’t related to flipping large numbers of cards…

16

Any advice on the most optimal way to use my resources?

A) raise ToL to 15 using tears and the dreadful surmise - to buy Noman at the last week. Then raise Noman knows through pails and the remaining tears

B) buy Noman at ToL 9. Then have more buckets left to raise Noman knows.

The problem is that Noman price hikes and melt rates are both unknown parameters. What would you do? Anyone have calculations on what exactly the trade offs in terms of pails would be?

17

Regarding wicket closure, there are no guarantees but I believe the last day for Noman purchase last year was the 25th, the last price hike being on the 23rd. I made Peggy on the 20th, before the final hike, because of when my TTH fell. Personally I’d be disinclined to do too much brinkmanship with the wicket - after all your preparation it’d be a shame to miss out on the chance at victory for the sake of one TTH. Obviously the fewer hits you take from time the greater your chance of survival, so later is better, but you’ll probably only have around 48 hours from the maximum price to act.

18

[quote=navchaa]Any advice on the most optimal way to use my resources?

A) raise ToL to 15 using tears and the dreadful surmise - to buy Noman at the last week. Then raise Noman knows through pails and the remaining tears

B) buy Noman at ToL 9. Then have more buckets left to raise Noman knows.

The problem is that Noman price hikes and melt rates are both unknown parameters. What would you do? Anyone have calculations on what exactly the trade offs in terms of pails would be?[/quote]

The main thing here is how your TTH lines up with the wicket dates and how many weeks you need to survive until Lilac’s arrival.

Each level of ptpt is equal to 3 NMF, so buying at 9 rather than 15 saves you 18 potential NMF, or 2 pails plus whatever you lose feeding to the boar. If buying early means you will have to survive an additional visit from TTH, you’re bound to lose more than that from the extra week. So it partly depends on how many pails you waste getting to 15 and when time comes.

However, if your TTH is such that you’re going to have to survive an extra week anyway, you might as well buy at 9 and save the NMF. This was my situation last year.

ETA: The noman only costs 15 ptpt for the last couple of days, not a week. I reckon it’s only worth paying top price if your tth is going to come very shortly after the price hike but before the wicket shuts - if not, just buy at the cheaper rate as soon as time’s come, since you’ll be taking the extra hit anyway.
edited by Màiread on 1/7/2017
edited by Màiread on 1/7/2017

19

When does the pails melt, comparing to the closure of the Wicket? How much time do we have to boost the Noman once the Wicket closes?

20

I am thinking about going for a Noman this year. I have 3 Pails of Snow, 2 Tears of the Bazaar, and 21 Taste of Lacre. But I am unsure how best to balance the competing concerns. Is it better to pay more up front for the Noman, and have a shorter time span over which to keep it alive, or to conserve resources by buying the Noman early, and gamble on having enough Pails, Taste, and Tears to keep it alive 6 weeks?

As several commenters have said, much depends upon when the Pails will melt. I doubt that will be before the closing of the Wicket, but if one buys a Noman shortly before the Wicket closes, as I was thinking of doing, the Pails are likely to be lost.

Or, I can simply sit upon my Taste until next year! You do not lose the quality over the year (so I started with ToL at 11), and although you cannot use Pails to increase ToL over 15, Mr. Sacks could give me several points next year.

Any comments would be gratefully appreciated. If I decide to go for a Noman this year, I will comment again on this thread with the relevant information.

P.S. TtH comes for my main, the character I’m speaking of in this post, on Tuesdays about 4 p.m. EST (I’ll translate into GMT if I decide to participate). Mairead has nearly convinced me that if I wish to participate, waiting a week or two at least would be a good idea.
edited by cathyr19355 on 1/7/2017