If you wait this long aren’t you limited by RNG? You do need the card to increase the progress or you have your deck trimmed and draw many/day?
If I wanted to get the tattoo, best would have been next Tuesday (4 TtH) or yesterday which may mean 5 visits from TtH? Trying to understand as much as I can in preparation for next year!
I wish you all good luck, I do![/quote]
You only need to access the wicket to buy the Noman. After that, you’ll draw the Noman card as long as it stays alive. The tricky part is the ToL. You always need a pail of snow for the first point (or three) before huffing tears, so all the feeding of the Noman has to be done before the snow melts. The alternative is to feed tears directly to the Noman, but that is less productive than the ToL method.
Yes, but you can use those options while Christmas Season is rolling, but this is from Wiki. In any case, my guess is that snow melts almost same time as the season is over.
So you just need to draw pails/2 Noman cards. Or what’s your strategy when increasing ToL back from 0 if, let’s say, the market closes(and you can’t use monocle, take air, monocle, Tears), but you still have pails and Noman?
After running the ToL count a few times, I realise that it’s a waste to take the air in the wicket. The idea is to maximise the ToL per pail as the Noman card is of abundant frequency. Taking the air gives me 2 ToL rather than 3 for the same pail, so it’s a bit of a waste unless you’re short of actions or rushing to get Noman’s friend up. I’ve found that for my circumstances, using NiteBrite’s method of 1 pail to 3 ToL and then huff tears to 11 is the best. Turns out that the veterans do know something after all ;)
I bought my Noman with at least a week to melting, so ample time to draw the card; and a base of 33 pails and 14 tears. Each pail will give 3 ToL, so it doesn’t matter whether to raise ToL using pails once or using them twice for each Noman card. I can always use up spare pails later using its own draw of the Noman card. Each tear gives a random number of ToL, so it’s best to use them up earlier in case you run out of pails. You need at least 1 ToL to huff tears. edited by navchaa on 1/18/2017
Ahaaaa! I finally understood it all now! Thanks!
So, worst case scenario, you use all your Tears and use only two pails/Noman card. This means that one needs to draw Noman cards equal to pails.
I don’t have my deck optimized at all and I managed to draw that card 60+ times in about 10-12 days so the card may not be an issue at all! I’m just curious to see now when the market closes; the options to increase ToL via buckets probably disappears after snow melts. Is this correct or you may end up with buckets and no possible way to use them?
Yes, it took me a while to figure it out, so glad to share! When the pails melt, you are left with nothing (except maybe real life surface tears for all the wasted resources!). So there’s no option to raise ToL after the melt. If there are spare tears, you can apply them directly to the Noman. But that’s a sub-optimal approach. I’d only do that if I manage to grind out more tears after the melt in a last bid to up Noman’s friend even further.
Of course there’s also the chance that the RNG throws a hissy fit and the Noman card is nowhere to be found (another good reason to huff tears to 11 first). So pray to the gods of the devilbone dice I guess? edited by navchaa on 1/18/2017
I wouldn’t say that applying Tears directly is a sub-optimal approach at all. It is simply a riskier approach.
The average ToL you get from one vial by warming it is 6, whereas the average ToL you get from one vial by feeding it is at least 13. So on average the latter is actually significantly better. What’s more the latter option works even if you’ve run out of pails.
The problem with the latter option is that it’s riskier. The best outcome is better but the worst outcome is worse. So it very much depends on your risk appetite.
[quote=genesis]I wouldn’t say that applying Tears directly is a sub-optimal approach at all. It is simply a riskier approach.
The average ToL you get from one vial by warming it is 6, whereas the average ToL you get from one vial by feeding it is at least 13. So on average the latter is actually significantly better. What’s more the latter option works even if you’ve run out of pails.
The problem with the latter option is that it’s riskier. The best outcome is better but the worst outcome is worse. So it very much depends on your risk appetite.[/quote]
Based on NiteBrite’s guide, applying tears directly gives you Noman’s friend, not ToL. One tear gives on average 6 ToL, which translates to 18 NF. Not sure how the numbers compute?
Applying Tears directly gives between 1-25 Noman’s Friend, at random. So consistently getting 18 per Tear on average via huffing is better than the 12ish per Tear via direct application.
Barselaar, I’m also available to help with your Notability grind - losing 5 Tears that way is terrible. I actually had one last year that provided 16 ToL by itself.
On the Skinnyman conversation, I’ve found that it’s pretty safe to assume you’ll get 5 Noman cards per day with reasonable flipping (I’ve had it range from 2 to 15, but mostly in the 5-8 range), so there’s not usually a problem burning all the Pails of So-Called Snow before the season ends and they melt as long as you’ve got a week.
I THINK last year I did 2 Pails with the Monocle, then used Tears to 11. Because some Tears didn’t disappear at 11 exactly, I eventually had to scale back to 1 Pail and then huff Tears to 11, but I had leftover tears still by the end.
Thank you all! I may well take you up on these offers, we’ll see. Luckily I was well prepared, and since those first attempts the RNG has been slightly kinder to me.
I also offer my assistance with regard to social actions to anyone here who might need it!
But consider that of the 51 huffs you listed, the 14 eventual failures mean a failure rate of 14 / 51 = 27.45%. Definitely not desirable and disappointing, but not really that far off from the expected result of 20%, especially in such a small sample.
(Or to put it another way: with those 51 attempts, you could have expected 10.2 failures on average, and instead failed 14 times.)
Thank you, dov! I wasn’t sure how to do the maths (or whether I even wanted to). That makes me feel better. I’m hoping to grind out a couple more tears before my next TTH hits, so that might just take me to my goal before the melt. Fingers crossed!
Noman’s friend loss for me was 36.
Wow, I’m so glad to see this many people attempting a run at the Noman tattoo! I know it’s a little late by now, but I wish you all the best of luck and hope to offer any help I can should you need it. edited by Sir Joseph Marlen on 1/19/2017