I’ve been considering joining in the marathon, and am looking for some wise counsel.
I have 13 PtPT, 13 pails, 4 tears, and my TTH hits Thursday 3am GMT. (I also have two Vials - I saw someone mention theirs somewhere, but am not sure if that’s actually relevant.)
Nitebrite’s old guide says - if you’re lucky and only need 4 weeks - you can get by with 3 pails and 4 tears; whereas 8 pails and 11 tears guarantees survival for 5 weeks. Has the math on this changed?
[quote=Ginneon Thursday]
Has the math on this changed?[/quote]
Yes, most likely it has. Nitebrite’s guide was based on the old melting rate (from two years ago I believe?). FailBetter actually raised the melting rate last year, but there was a pretty loud crying out against it since they hadn’t given any warning. They toned it down and offered to give back some of the Noman’s Friend that had been lost due to the increased rate. This year, we’re all but guaranteed to have a higher melting rate. What it will be as the weeks go on, we don’t know yet.
edited by idyl on 1/15/2017
My guide is extremely dated, it was written at a time when only 2 people had even made it to FoTER with the noman ever. There wasn’t a lot of data (I worked hard to make sure we got so much data last year <3). I had made it on like 28ish tears and like 666 nomans friend, and the other person had used… like 60+? Yeah. We had 0 idea how much melt there was before that first year we made it through. My guide was the very first guide written to try and help others navigate the impossible and help bring it into reach of more folks. It was a ‘we dont know much, but here’s what we do if you think it might help’ type of guide. And it worked pretty well actually! A lot of people made it through last year. But with all the heartache that came with changes and surprises last year and just how strongly it affected everyone I realized I wouldn’t be able to make and maintain a truly accurate and always updated guide.
So it’s sort of left in a state of never updating again. Consider it there as a historical reference, and some good general advice. The total noman’s friend required for survival was actually in line with what would have been required if FBG -hadn’t- refunded the melt increase. This is because last year melted faster -but- over a fewer number of weeks. So I think it should still be a pretty good watermark for baseline amounts of preparation required, but it is by no means a guarantee of success.
edited by NiteBrite on 1/15/2017
FYI, in case anyone is keeping track:
The current (Jan 15th) cost for a Noman is (besides the fixed requirements of second chances and a knife):
edited by dov on 1/15/2017
Thank you, dov. I am tracking (it’s in the OP); was actually just about to update.
I haven’t been updating the decay rate because all the reported decays so far have been within the 21-50 range but will do so in a few days, I guess
Oh dear. This price hike is a lot faster than I’d hoped for, especially when my TTH falls on either Tuesday or Wednesday (can’t tell exactly when because of server issues). Any guesses on how long the price will stay at 9 ToL?
The price change times are different year to year but the differences are actually relatively minor. This year the change to 9 ToL is actually slower than last year - 10 days this year compared to 9 days last year.
The only guess we can make is based on past precedent. Last year 9 ToL lasted for 6 days. But, of course, you make assumptions based on past precedent at your own risk.
Navchaa, you’re probably at 9 still for Tuesday, but almost definitely not Wednesday. You should probably plan to pay 11 for safety.
In response to Nitebrite’s post, I didn’t have angst around last year’s changes. I saved slowly over a year and had a modest amount of tears and buckets. Ultimately I chose not to take the Nomans Friend refund.And he still lasted an extra two or three weeks. Failbetter is not here to screw anyone. But the goal for the Noman tattoo preparation is definitely not to aim for the minimum.
Similarly, Nitebrite’s guide is still useful for strategy and, probably, as an indicator of numbers to aim for at the high/safe end.
Thank you genesis and Toran. I may have to use some buckets with a dreadful surmise to raise my ToL if TTH comes late again. Nerve wracking despite my preparation. I should have stockpiled tears more aggressively.
I’m not going for the tattoo this year because I am woefully unprepared, but I’ll throw my stats in for the baseline measure - I just got my little frozen buddy 2 days ago when Sacks finally got pinned and I was able to finish him up. Bought the noman (I’m calling him Wilbur) for 9 ToL, and yesterday evening when TTH came I lost 50 Nomans friend and have 50 remaining… Out of curiosity, for those who get their Noman and don’t intend to take them all the way to the feast, when do you usually let it slip away?
Took some time to increase Noman Knows to 15, but I wanted to check all the possible actions. After it reached 15, tried again to increase heartless and managed so! Went shopping a few times even if it costs 5 AP, asked him a few things and, was visited by TtH and, after reaching Noman’s friend 7, I decided to let him go as TtH will visit me in about 32 hours.
It wasn’t an easy departure at all…!
Actually, if the Feast of the Exceptional Rose starts at noon GMT on this year’s Valentine’s Day (Tuesday, February 14th), this means you’ll be hit by one less TtH, for purposes of Noman’s Friend loss. It depends on your time zone, but if you time it right and assuming Lilac is available from the start of the Feast (and also assuming TtH is on time), you can in theory grab your tattoo(s) that day before TtH hits you.
(Disclaimer: that’s a lot of assumptions, beware server outages and brinksmanship, etc.)[/quote]
True, this is actually what I’m hoping for, as it could make all the difference. But like you said, this qualifies as severe brinksmanship, so absolutely anything might happen, especially since TtH has been jumping around a lot in these past weeks.
Just wanted to throw in this reply from support from last year, to confirm everything that’s already been said about Gant tattoo mechanics: this is indeed intended behaviour, as it stood last season.
[color=#0000cc]"You’re right that the prerequisites for the Noman tattoo in Gant are that you have two tattoos from Millicent’s Parlour. However, you may get the Noman tattoo in Gant in the same year as your second tattoo. This is to make sure it’s always possible to get a tattoo of your Noman."[/color]
edited by xenopus on 1/16/2017
It’s unfortunate that you got the Noman 2 days before your Time, but basically your goal is to get Noman Knows to 15 and then grab the Elemental Secret before your next Time. How you approach that is your choice. You may want to consider dumping some Taste of Lacre or a bucket of lacre on it right now - currently 50 Noman’s Friend loss should be the maximum weekly loss and I’ve found that 2 weeks of card flipping is totally safe to get your Noman Knows maxed.
I know other people manage to finish in a couple days, even without tricksy shenanigans.
Just bought my Noman as my next Time hits too close to the probable closing of the Wicket for me to feel comfortable. My first 5 huffs of Tears all got the 1/5 chance to consume the Tears. Please my compatriots, pray to the RNGods for better fortune, otherwise this poor snowy doppelgänger might not make it even halfway!
Just bought my Noman as well. Price is still 9 ToL (phew!) just after my TTH hit on Tuesday 1800 GMT.
Barselaar - I’m happy to do coffee or private suppers with you to grind up notability in case you need the FCs for more tears.
I also just purchased my Noman, since TtH hit this afternoon. Price is still 9 ToL. If Lilac is around on the 14th or 15th, that means I need to survive four weeks of melting. I should easily have enough supplies and am in the process of increasing Noman’s Friend, but we’ll see.
I’m tracking all my info, actions, melt rate, etc., regarding the Noman via Google Sheets. I’ll post it once I’m done.
edited by idyl on 1/17/2017
And we’re off!
Good luck Ladies and Gents.
I’m waiting for the 12ToL price (after TtH on Thursday night).
Good luck! I am going to be waiting till at least Sunday and, possibly, as late as Tuesday. Will see… Depends on whether they will have a one-week melting warning like they did last year…
In case anyone is doing any panicked last minute grinding for snow and tears - as a long time PoSI, I have a nice stockpile of appalling secrets and cryptic clues. 333 appalling secrets conveniently convert to 105 of either journals of infamy or tales of terror. Don’t know why it didn’t occur to me to do this earlier rather than grind them from scratch in the flit or using aotb.
If you wait this long aren’t you limited by RNG? You do need the card to increase the progress or you have your deck trimmed and draw many/day?
If I wanted to get the tattoo, best would have been next Tuesday (4 TtH) or yesterday which may mean 5 visits from TtH? Trying to understand as much as I can in preparation for next year!
I wish you all good luck, I do!