You need twilit smuggler 21 for the dumbwaiter or you can get the clue through the A Master Smuggler storylet with twilit smuggler 1.
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Investigative Journalist appears to be capped at 21, BTW.
And it’s looking like a Tiger King is imprisoned in the coil.
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FYI, there’s another clue to be found in the copper cipher ring.
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And another in the Foreign Office, at the end of the carousel.
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I have 20 Twilit Smuggler and was able to get the clue from the Balmoral dumbwaiter, seems having either 1 or 21 isn’t a hard requirement.
How much deciphering do you need?
It says 15
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Specifically the dumbwaiter one, not the master smuggler one? Someone on Discord said they checked the requirements for the dumbwaiter and it said it was locked to 21. EDIT - I just saw their screen grab that says t is 21.
No, that’s the deciphering one. You can also do the Master Smuggler one if you haven’t finished the quest, which I can confirm from having done so.
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The dumbwaiter clue needs 15 Deciphering, yes.
Edit edit: It’s the clue from the Great Game faction card that needs to be deciphered in your Cabinet Noir (use whatever options to build up Deciphering to 15).
You can get Lead: The Wrong Sort of Treasure with either the A Master Smuggler storyletthe (requiring Twilit Smuggler1) or alternatively by The Dumbwaiter of Balmoral (requiring Twilit Smuggler 21).
The Lead: Intriguer’s Orders is the one where you need deciphering one after getting the document using the Great Game.
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Of course, I got my clues mixed up in all this excitement. Excellent clarification!
Could be worse. I missed that you had to decipher the Great Game clue and when I went to Huffman and it said I did not have a lead I used up a deck refresh trying to find the card again. When I went through the deck with no luck I wrote an email to support which I had to quickly follow up with another email to say “Sorry, never mind!” (I’m so embarrassed).
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I can get…three of these, yay!
“Spies, all of them. Or ‘incognito diplomats’. Vienna, Paris, who knows where else. Would have seen through it immediately if my head were screwed on straight. Thank goodness for a lover’s quarrel, eh?”
What does the “lover’s quarrel” part mean? I guess this is the Polymath and the Rogue Translator?
Am I to understand you’d need to draw the Great Game card twice if you don’t have any Great Game favour?
Do you have the item to draw you a connection card immediately? You can do that once a week if I remember correctly?
At this point, I’m planning to use it to draw the Card to begin with. So that doesn’t exactly solve the issue (or answer the question for that matter).
Unless you’ve got another way to raise Great Game favours (none of which look particularly action efficient beyond flipping cards, but both the Chessboard and Sinning Jenny have options if you’re already doing those carousels for the other clues), then yes, you’ll need to draw the card twice.
And don’t make my mistake of already having a document being deciphered when you draw it. 
Welp, guess I’m flipping cards until I’m back at maximum actions or I get it. No biggie.