Estival: The Sixth Coil is here!

“Bar bar bar, it’s all I can make out really.” Heh, those Greeks. Classical.

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I don’t really know how to run the numbers for CRpa, but I think the efficiency of the parabola casing grind goes up significantly if you happen to have an Acicular Squirrel from Whitsun.

So far, I’m liking the mood for this Estival, “everything’s fun and low stakes” with the undertone of creeping suspicion and dread is solidly different from the prior apocalypses without giving up a sense of tension and promise of mystery to keep it interesting. Plus just the element of getting to the 6th coil when we’ve been waiting for it so many years. And tigers!

But I’m finding the pacing feels a little slow? Not in the concrete sense; three days per segment with the knowledge that you can still catch up if you miss it is about right compared to some of the prior ones that were exciting but also stressful where you felt like you could miss out on something every time you step away to use the washroom. I think they’ve been improving their balance on time pressure excitement vs FOMO every year since Estival started, and they’ve got it down pretty solidly at this point.

But the particulars are a little lacking in a feeling of positive pressure, both because there’s been really no question which faction will win this contest (might be different in the other contests, of course) so it doesn’t feel like you can actually make much difference or need to worry about how each faction is doing, and because there are relatively few different activities you can do to boost your team. It’d help if there was some sort of incentive to switching sides so people mix things up more instead of just choosing their fave and staying there, or some options to sabotage other teams rather than just being a good sportsman and helping your own, which would give you more choice how to operate and make the outcome less clear when there’s a clear fave like in this contest since people who support underdogs could all band together in which team they try to take down. Or even just an option to do some more work for Huffam during the contest instead of focusing solely on the competition.

That said, I think it’s pretty likely that the twists and turns that will no doubt be coming will shake things up mechanically as well as in storyline, and I’ve also found the early sections a bit slow or limited in some of the prior Estivals, so I’m sure this complaint won’t last the whole event through.

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It’s there a fable about this?

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I’m not sure this is true - I think to achieve the efficiency of 7 CP of Casing per action, you need to have a high Glasswork stat (ideally 12 or more). The Squirrel allows you to substitute Kataleptic Toxicology for Glasswork, but does not improve the overall efficiency as far as I can tell.

Has a consensus been reached on which option to gain CR is the best? I receive 414 CR per action from the simple airs related button in the “A Tournament of Sciences” page but I also did the lab research which was way worse for me (non-Fate player) than the simple 414 CR option. I do not fully understand the casing option yet. I spent what casing my two characters happened to have on hand which was not much but am reluctant to go off to Parabola unless it is a lot better than the 414 option.

My understanding from the guide that has been posted on the wiki (assuming the calculations of whoever wrote it are reliable) is that it depends at least somewhat on how high your 4 main stats are. Parabolan Casing, done in large batches, will get you ~416 CR per action - so if you have high main stats and are getting 414 per action (as you are) then Parabola is technically better but only very slightly so. For those whose main stats are lower, though, the Airs options will have lower payouts and Parabola may start to look better in comparison.

416 CR/A might be a theoretical gain with tens of thousands of actions. Simplified calculations (4 Actions for 28 Casing, 2 Action Parabola Tax) break 415 CR/A at 560 actions generating casing (and 392 actions cashing in).

Edit: I guess if one had more than 50 % chance to pass the Shadowy Check and finish in 3 Actions, the math looks different. That requires one to tank their Glasswork and Monstrous Anatomy sighting the Stormbird. Hiding in you base camp should not skew the math enough, though I am too tired to do that on my phone.

Thanks. Looks like there is no reason not to go the simple and boring route of repetitively clicking the 414 per action button in the ToS page.

I tested my second chance usage hypothesis with iterative simulation. It averages on 421 CR per action
python code is here:

Summary
import random
N_ITER = 10000
SC_PRICE = 7 #actions to get second chances
NIGHTMARE_COST = 0.33 #clearing nightmares in actions

l = []
for _ in range(N_ITER):
    actions = 0 + SC_PRICE
    casing = 0
    for SECOND_CHANCE in range(21): #assuming 21 second chances
        roll = random.randint(1, 4) #assuming 75% success with second chance
        if roll == 4:
            actions += 1 + NIGHTMARE_COST
        else:
            casing += 28
            actions += 3
    actions += casing / 10
    CRpA = casing * 101 / actions
    l.append(CRpA)

print("average CR per action:", sum(l) / len(l))

Yeah, you’re right ambystomamaculatum. I thought casing with the Squirrel gave you more CP of casing than any other options. But I just tried Find the weakness in an opponent’s defences with glasswork instead, and I completed the run in exactly as many turns as it took using the Squirrel.

Without commenting on the validity of the code itself, because I don’t actually know python, I have questions regarding your assumptions as I try to glean them from the code:
You are ignoring the action tax to enter Parabola?
You ignore the increase in second chance cost after failing?

Still, it looks much more attractive than I would have expected.

image

What’s that sound from underneath the shipyard gate?
They’re pounding nails into a hardwood hull.
And I swear to the Judgements, I heard someone moaning in Hudum.
And I keep seeing the blue light of Khaganian electrical illumination.
They have a plane and a reciprocating saw
And you won’t believe what the Faint-Hearted Neighbour saw.
There’s kataleptical toxins underneath the sink, of course.
There’s also enough formaldehyde to choke a fungal pony.
What were they building in there?
What the Hell were they building in there?

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We have a right to know.

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Yes, entering parabola is ignored. It could be added easily though, and effect is minor since on average it’s 120+ actions loop.
Second chance cost does not change after failing, it’s constant (from social action).
Difficulty drop after failing is ignored, but it’s minor unless many fails in a row. Too lazy to implement it, but improvement in CRpA will be small anyway.

The cost of gaining them, yes, but the cost to use them on the same action goes up after a failure, doesn’t it?

Only one more hour until the Tournament of Imagination opens in Veilgarden!

Edit: And here’s your local London team (under cosmopolitan disguise)!

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With the hodgepodge folklore on display from the Kolomans, I am convinced it’s not even a place in the game. Whatever they might be, I don’t believe they are a culture, people or nation.

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That’s a distinct possibility.

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Jsyk the art competition is also open now!

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