The guide automatically generates those values using a few assumptions, the critical and slightly dubious one here being “The Feast of the Rose opens on the first Thursday of February”, which was true for 2023, 2022, 2021, and 2020. This isn’t an actual rule (and wasn’t true between 2016-2019), but it made sense for an estimate. However, this year that would mean the Feast opens on the 1st, Tattoos on the 8th, and it wraps up the 15th. Which is only one day earlier than last year, but it does seem suspiciously early and causes some very low estimates.
If the logic were correct, it would only predict two melts: a Monday Noman melts on the 29th, the 5th, and then becomes a tattoo on the 8th before #3 comes around.
But we don’t know when the Feast will actually start, so I’d absolutely splurge and prepare for another melt. Maybe 2! If anyone really wants a tattoo, I wouldn’t cut corners on this.
I also wouldn’t currently recommend the guide on the wiki, since we don’t know when the Feast will open and we don’t have helpful advice on how the new melt rates work other than that Tattoos and Memories of a Doubled Spring should be of a similar difficulty to 2023.
Personally I’d advocate for gutting most of the guide and saying “we’re just going to have to wait and see!”, but that isn’t quite how wiki-editing works; it’s already marked with a caution banner and sprinkled with warnings and equivocations, but I know that’s surprisingly easy to miss.
Edit: as a temporary fix, I’ve switched the wiki formula to be more pessimistic, specifically predicting the Feast of the Rose begins Tuesday the 6th this year (the rule already existed in the page, but was temporarily switched to the “First Thursday” rule because it was correct 4 times in a row). It’s always a guess, but a pessimistic guess that might lead to over-preparation is much preferable to an optimistic guess that might lead to a failed tattoo. The warning that the numbers are only guidelines should be a bit more visible now, too.