Spading the Fidgets

A while back, I took 102 Tales of Terror and tracked my progress in converting them. Short version: If you want to make Echos to grind your Overgoat, Hunter’s Keep is still the place to be. That said, the results:

102 Tales of Terror converted to 84 Senses of Deja Vu. This was tracking higher up until the last 30; I suspect it has a 90% success rate, but it may be 75%, 80%, or 85%.

84 Senses of Deja Vu converted to 64 Glimpses of Something Larger. About 75%

64 Glimpses of Something Larger converted to 48 Deals with a Devil; exactly 75%.

48 Deals with a Devil converted to 26 Room Numbers at the Royal Beth; about 50%

26 Room Numbers at the Royal Beth converted to 12 Last Hopes of a Fidgeting Writer; about 50%

12 Last Hopes of a Fidgeting Writer converted to 8 Lenses of Black Glass; this could be 75%, 50%, anywhere in between. I’m inclined to guess lower, since that’s been the trend and it’s labeled “it could go either way” rather than “pretty good odds.”

8 Lenses of Black Glass converted to 4 Coruscating Souls. 50%, but not a meaningful figure. Notably, this also states that it “could go either way”

In the end, with optimistic assumptions of {90%,75%,75%,50%,50%,50%,50%}, the ending value of 312.5, and a starting value of 0.5, with the returns spread out over 7 turns, this gives you 0.91 Echoes per action, before subtracting the additional items you need to add in to convert up the chain. Even if the Last Hope -> Lens ratio is 75%, it’s only 1.62 Echos per action before taking away the additional items.

Hunter’s Keep, by contrast, is 1.27 without the Searing Enigmas, and 1.45 assuming the chance of a rare success is about 10%, though it requires a 30-action lead-in that operates at about 1.2. Unless the chance of a Searing Enigma is very small, it is still worthwhile to Zail to the three ‘sisters’ to farm your Overgoat.

http://community.failbettergames.com/topic594-got-my-overgoat-was-almost-got-my-overgoat.aspx

The man with the larger data set has mathed it differently, and personally I’ve made a killing following the Fidgeting Writer storyline (went from having no endgame-worthy gear at all to having all the top items in the Bazaar except Cider and Overgoat), and I’m 1400 Echoes into my quest for the Overgoat.

Also, it looks like you spent a total of 344 actions in that conversion, which yielded four Coruscating Souls at 312.5E apiece. That should be 3.634E/action before we account for the actions you needed to get the raw materials for intermediate steps. Even after accounting for that, it should come out to rather more than 1.45E/action.

If we use your assumptions, we should get a 3.1640625% chance of success per individual Tale of Terror, which would mean we’d expect to use ~31.60493827 Tales of Terror per Coruscating Soul we receive. That’s a raw material cost of ~15.80247E per cycle. Total actions to reach that one Coruscating Soul should be (31.60493827 + 28.44444444 + 21.33333333 + 16 + 8 + 4 + 2) ~111.38272. Rounding that up to 112 because you can’t have partial actions, that’s still 2.64909E/action.

Have I mathed something wrong somewhere along the way? Could you please elaborate how you reached your answers?

I spent almost a thousand Tales of Terror on this miserable venture. I have exactly two Coruscating Souls to show for it.
The absolutely worst step was “The Room next door”, with a failure rate over 85%; the final stage a close second.

I’m back to the good old University/Flit loop now. It’s unglamorous work, but it pays a steady 1.6E/action, and all challenges are straightforward.

I am unfamiliar with this. Is it available if you’ve been kicked out and readmitted?

The University/Flit loop is more like 1.56 per action**, though it used to be around 2.13, and is unavailable once you’re kicked out or have progressed too far in the final story.
While the larger data pattern is more accurate, no one has yet produced enough data to be mathematically significant. To do that would take a very long time. A cursory glance at the odds does show that the Fidgeting Writer is not unprofitable and is likely in the same ballpark if not better than the other best options.

EDIT: The maths on this is not my own, but others brighter than I from a while back. I foolishly finished up the University before even considering it.
edited by Nigel Overstreet on 5/23/2012

[quote=Nigel Overstreet]The University/Flit loop is more like 1.56 per action**, though it used to be around 2.13, and is unavailable once you’re kicked out or have progressed too far in the final story.
While the larger data pattern is more accurate, no one has yet produced enough data to be mathematically significant. To do that would take a very long time. A cursory glance at the odds does show that the Fidgeting Writer is not unprofitable and is likely in the same ballpark if not better than the other best options.

EDIT: The maths on this is not my own, but others brighter than I from a while back. I foolishly finished up the University before even considering it.
edited by Nigel Overstreet on 5/23/2012[/quote]

I often used University for grinding, but I never really analyzed the numbers :s Is it the first loop we’re talking about, or the one unlocked after starting your own Correspondence department?

For those of you that want to put specific numbers on that accuracy, I recommend this wikipedia article. It will teach you how to determine error bars within a given certainty for binary choices like this. Specifically, given Vyrlokar’s 59 attempts with the black glass and his 55.93% success rate, we can say with 99% certainty that the odds are between 39.2% and 72.6% chance of success. If your eyes didn’t gloss over with that, you might find it interesting reading.

Unfortunately that doesn’t stop people like Passionario and me from spending several weeks worth of actions and items and come out under cost, let alone profitable. It just makes the odds of that “low.”

[quote=streetfelineblue]
I often used University for grinding, but I never really analyzed the numbers :s Is it the first loop we’re talking about, or the one unlocked after starting your own Correspondence department?[/quote]
The second loop.

Thanks!

For those of you that want to put specific numbers on that accuracy, I recommend this wikipedia article. It will teach you how to determine error bars within a given certainty for binary choices like this. Specifically, given Vyrlokar’s 59 attempts with the black glass and his 55.93% success rate, we can say with 99% certainty that the odds are between 39.2% and 72.6% chance of success. If your eyes didn’t gloss over with that, you might find it interesting reading.

Unfortunately that doesn’t stop people like Passionario and me from spending several weeks worth of actions and items and come out under cost, let alone profitable. It just makes the odds of that “low.”[/quote]
I feel for you. I’m going to continue ùrsuing this storyline, once I finish the new content (the Pursuing Jack of Smiles one), so you’ll get more more precision, eventually. I’m just back from Polythreme, whre I grinded over 5k Romantic Notions, and over 1800 Memories of distant Shores, to see how many additional Coruscating Souls I can get. While Nigel might be the most hedonistic man in the 'neath, I plan on being the one with the most coruscating souls!

That reminds me, when you go to Polythreme, you can get tons of different stuff, but no Polythreme silk!

OK that’s it. I’m done. No more Tales of Terror whatsoever. I don’t care what the odds are, or what the rewards, all I know are my own experiences. And my own experiences are that in all my playing time since this stuff started, I have NEVER got further than the Room at the Royal Beth. More than half the time, I don’t even get the Sense of Deja Vu. I’d say it’s probably about 70% failure rate on the very first step.

Nobody’s luck is that bad. The game is sentient and hates me. And this isn’t the first time! For about a month, the game thought I was aligned with a faction when I wasn’t, so the Spending Secrets path didn’t progress. It seems about right, though, that the first piece of sentient software would take an irrational and personal dislike to me(!)

I don’t like the luck-based mechanic too - I tried the Fidgeting Writer when it came out, and made a firm proposition never to try it again unless I’ll find myself all maxed out, thoroughly bored and feeling an impending sense of self destruction (sometimes I feel like the MAchine God of Chance exists and it’s evil :) )

That said, I always thought Hunter’s Keep or the grinding storylets in Polythreme to be the best places for making money. How does the University/Flit loop work? I played in both areas, but I didn’t realize there was a routine granting more rewards than the circa 1.20 Echoes per action (zee voyage not included) from Hunter’s Keep and Polythreme O_o

I do think Polythreme may be one of the best options for getting cash. If you can get 13 fascinating or investigating (or 8 of both) in a run, that’s 25 echoes. If you do so in 13 actions (So, not using actions to get silk, likely taking advantage of the stat check cards instead), that’s roughly 192 pence per action.

Edits: Woops, forgot a cycle is 12 actions, not 13. So, 208 pence.
edited by Urthdigger on 5/27/2012

[quote=Urthdigger]I do think Polythreme may be one of the best options for getting cash. If you can get 13 fascinating or investigating (or 8 of both) in a run, that’s 25 echoes. If you do so in 13 actions (So, not using actions to get silk, likely taking advantage of the stat check cards instead), that’s roughly 192 pence per action.

Edits: Woops, forgot a cycle is 12 actions, not 13. So, 208 pence.
edited by Urthdigger on 5/27/2012[/quote]
It is good, but you can’t relly on that, mainly because the cards don’t show all the time. I’m using it to fuel my fidgeting writer soul collection. I got 33 before, so I could get an Overgoat, and now I’m going to get some more ;) I just want to finish the Jack story and cap my stats first.

By having a 4 card lodging and keeping 3 unwanted cards in your hand, you can really improve your chances due to the low number of cards in polythyreme. It also helps a little to be a bit more aware of what the cards do.

“The Temple” and “At the Market” are your steady cards for raising investigating and fascinating, respectively. Success on an easy luck check gives +10 CP, but the failure still gives a decent amount (5 or so). However, they will decrease the other stat. “The Ruin” and “The Priest at the Temple” are your chancy cards for investigating and fascinating, respectively: A 50% luck check that rewards 15 CP on success, but only 1 or 2 CP (Haven’t figured out which) on a failure. Of note however, is that it does not reduce the opposing quality. Then you have “The Masked Man” which raises both by 5 on an easy luck check, but gives nothing if you fail, and “The Wax Wind Comes” which is a 50% luck chance, which gives fascinating for a success but investigating on failure (Decent to start with if you don’t care which route you go, or can be useful if trying to get 8+ in both). And then of course there’s the cards you get if partway through spying or making a travelogue, which you can guarantee a success in.

Anyway, you’re right that you can’t depend on getting the highest goal every single time, but you can definitely improve your chances through careful use of the card mechanics.

[quote=Urthdigger]By having a 4 card lodging and keeping 3 unwanted cards in your hand, you can really improve your chances due to the low number of cards in polythyreme. It also helps a little to be a bit more aware of what the cards do.

“The Temple” and “At the Market” are your steady cards for raising investigating and fascinating, respectively. Success on an easy luck check gives +10 CP, but the failure still gives a decent amount (5 or so). However, they will decrease the other stat. “The Ruin” and “The Priest at the Temple” are your chancy cards for investigating and fascinating, respectively: A 50% luck check that rewards 15 CP on success, but only 1 or 2 CP (Haven’t figured out which) on a failure. Of note however, is that it does not reduce the opposing quality. Then you have “The Masked Man” which raises both by 5 on an easy luck check, but gives nothing if you fail, and “The Wax Wind Comes” which is a 50% luck chance, which gives fascinating for a success but investigating on failure (Decent to start with if you don’t care which route you go, or can be useful if trying to get 8+ in both). And then of course there’s the cards you get if partway through spying or making a travelogue, which you can guarantee a success in.

Anyway, you’re right that you can’t depend on getting the highest goal every single time, but you can definitely improve your chances through careful use of the card mechanics.[/quote]
I know, I do it all the time, when I’m there. Only, I use my actions to grind Romantic Notions unless the Factitious Furniture or the The Zailors at Polythreme’s Harbour cards of show up. You get 26 echos on 12 actions (2.17 echoes/action), and some grinding at 1.2 echoes/action. Since for me, the goal was to feel my Fidgeting Writer gambling addiction, I ended up with over 1800 Memories of Distant Shores, and over 5000 romantic notions!

I know I’m a bit late to the party since I didn’t keep track of my first go at it and only now just did an organized batch, but I figured I’d toss my data into the communal pool:

60 tales of terror
43 senses of deja vu
31 glimpses of something larger
21 deals with a devil
12 rooms at royal beth
6 last hopes of a fidgeting writer
4 lenses of black glass
2 coruscating souls

Not sure what the echoes-per-action of that comes out to once you factor in the costs at each stage.

What are the best ways to get the required goods without Polythreme? (I still have some business in London to attend to.) Here’s what I’ve got:

*In general: The Relickers are good for Whisper-Satin Scraps (which converts to Correspondence Plaques), Correspondence Plaques, Brilliant Souls, and Incendiary Gossip/Identities Uncovered. As a last resort, loops in the Labyrinth of Tigers coil 2 give ~1.08 Echoes/action of Shrieks, Cryptic Clues, and/or Prisoner’s Honey, which will get you there a little faster than Unfinished Business.
*Tales of Terror: Cards throw Cryptic Clues at you. (Especially Well-Known Tree->Flit, 1000 Nevercold Brass Wanted if you have the extra Brass and are flipping in Ladybones Road to look for a Salt Weasel.)
*Visions of the Surface: Someone is Coming has a decent yield, since many of the cards that raise the quality also have a monetary benefit.
*Correspondence Plaques: Convert from Cryptic Clues via Journals of Infamy, or Relickers. I think this is the one I have the most problems with.
*Brilliant Souls: The Big One, in the Flit. The Gates of the Garden and Fallen Cities cards also grant 3 Memories of Distant Shores, which convert.
*Identies Uncovered: “Chat by the shadow of the Wheel” at Mrs. Plenty’s Carival gives 2 Incendiary Gossip directly.
*Mourning Candles: Don’t have a great way to get these, but you don’t need a ton… dream opportunities provide Memories of Light, and I’ve got a Partisan Messenger Tortoise whose card grants 3 Compromising Documents. You can also convert Tales of Terror in a pinch.
edited by Aspeon on 7/2/2012

If you are involved in the Soul Trade then the “Someone is Coming” gives you 4 Mourning Candles for 21cp. That’s 4 for 22 actions plus connections and the items which comes with cards.
Tales of Terrors and Brilliant Souls can be gained in the Flit at 25 for 32 cp. When you consider that with a Gang of Hoodlums you get 18 cp in 5 actions, this is ideal.
Visions of the Surface and Correspondence Plaques are best gained by converting from Journals of Infamy, which are most efficiently gained from the Flit, but can be gained without a small amount inefficiency from Doubt Street if you would also like to gain some points in Prophet of the Gutter, Cardinal of Conspiracy or Defender of Truth.
There is no dedicated source of Identities other than Proscribed Materials, but making use of cards is always a good way to go!