I just reached 1513 Nomans Friend and just realized that my goal tracking calculation was wrong. Even with consistent double monocle from now on I will overshoot the maximum loss by about 100.
Does anyone know the calculation behind the maximum loss stated on the wiki? I was under the impression that the definitive calculation for the loss ramping were unknown? How maximum is the stated maximum on the wiki?
The wiki lists the calculation as between (1.75 × D) + 3 and (1.75 × D) + 37. I assume this has been pulled from tabulating highest and lowest results last year.
D here equals the days since January 5th so it should be fairly simple to run the highest calculation.
Using a simplified version (assuming that every day is May 9th when whitsun started last time. I get a result of 2737 [17 weeks of 161 loss] which is close enough to the calculated losses to assume that they used this calculation.
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I’ve hit the halfway mark, having lost 47 tears. I’ve still got 70 pails and 150-some tears, so should be fine, but I’m wondering if I dare risk using more pails and less tears, since the pails won’t keep. I’ll probably wait till I’m a lot closer to the goal to do any of that, since I’m prone to making silly mistakes and just generally want to play it safe.
Checkpoint: I’m at 1690 Noman’s Friend after consuming 46 Pails and 65 Vials.
After a rough start, Vial evaporation was only slightly above average (20.6%) for me.
Since I still have 80 Pails left, I should also switch to double-dipping from now on: even with double-dipping, I should still exceed my self-imposed target of 3k NF.
Tomorrow will be my first TtH, let’s see how it goes!
Checkpoint: at 1905 NF (74% of the way to the target) having spent 71% of my pails and 65% of my tears. I’m now on even counts of pails/tears (36 pails/35 tears left).
Also decided to calculate that based on my initial amounts, I had enough pails/tears for 3052 NF on average; right now, my expected value is 2859 total NF based on what I have left, so I’ve had slightly worse than average luck but, as expected, I should have sufficient buffer that that’s fine.