Whew, I’ve hit my base target of 83, in spite of accidentally dropping my notability to zero and then discovering that TTH had come for my alt and they had no notability. At least I only did that once, which is pretty good for me! I’ll keep going for a bit to get a margin, though drawing the Noman enough times in Jan is my biggest worry in this whole thing.
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I’ve got up to my 100 and change, still going to get one more with the next TTH but now there’s a break in grinding until it’s card-drawin’ time.
I reached 120 Pails today.
Since 3 were free, that’s 17550 € worth of Wild Words turned to maybe snow.
I still have 7.2k€ of Wild Words left, but I can safely save them for the Rat Market.
Time to say goodbye to the Amanuensis!
I hit 100 or so, and am now nervously going back and forth between wanting to make more just in case, thinking it would be better to grind extra tears, and the urge to just chill till Noman time. This is stressful!
I think you can relax. With 100 Pails and 192 Tears, the chances of breaking all of your Vials before hitting your Noman’s Friend target are practically zero.
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Thank you for your reassurance, I keep telling myself that, but hearing it from someone else is helpful!
I got 43 in the second week, slightly better than the previous pace. I attribute the difference to luck with drawing the Urchins card naturally.
One upside to the scale of resource investment that Doubled Spring requires, it’s a natural safeguard against bad luck. The Law of Large Numbers starts taking effect. One of the tables in the Noman guide lists out percentage odds of certain Noman’s Friend values, and it looks like the standard deviation is about 5 Vials. Meaning that overshooting by just 20 Vials is enough to safeguard against a .5% probability outlier.
One thing I wish I had done but haven’t found the time for is generating some more probability tables. Percentage bands on Noman’s Friend Loss, Percentage bands on Vials-per-Pail, percentage pands on Noman’s Friend-per-Vial. The amount listed as “safe” is overpreparing by a factor of 3, but that type of margin is nowhere near what’s actually going to happen.
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Mr Abominable Lacreman was born today, and is ready to eat 126 Pails and 176 Vials of Tears. We will be reporting weekly on its growth and melt rates.
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Failed drawing the Noman card in my first 20-ish draws. Started to panic. Drew four within my next ten draws. Guess I will be rollercoasting through January…
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I’m doing pretty well so far (7 Noman conversions off 3 tear vials) but I don’t expect this to hold up. 83 pails and 228 vials remain.
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Also getting started! I’ve got a few conversions down. I’ll check in on progress after a few days, I’m not sure what’s a good conversion rate and how many I expect to be able to get through before the end of january.
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Well, I just broke four vials in five attempts. I guess it saved me some actions for this particular friend-infusion…
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As always, you guys are fast! I’ve only done two conversions so far, but I feel a little better knowing I started with a pail-free 18 ToL gift to my Noman, at least.
I’m having a little doubt as to whether the Woesel is better or not; the lowered stats are getting me quite a few low-level cards I wouldn’t be getting otherwise.
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Ok, first day nearing the end, so here’s my summary:
I am now at 451 Noman’s Friend. Started with a free conversion of 17 Putting the Pieces Together. I used 9 Pails and 14 Tears.
111 Pails/175 Tears left.
Still unsure of what value of Noman’s Friend I am actually aiming for. Wiki says 2625 should be safe, but I am a paranoid pangolin about these values.
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In the one hand I’ve only drawn the Norman card four times today. But on the other hand, I’ve only needed two Tears because the first one lasted 22 uses. The FLPRNG is wild.
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AFAICT, the Woesel adds back to your deck only 3 low-level cards (The Stray, The Poet of the Streets and Feasting on the Remains), while it removes more than 15 cards (all 12 Faction Cards, a Visit, Arbor, your Club, your Aunt, plus any card that requires more than X in a base stat).
So it definitely helps to thin your deck.
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I’ve turned out to be more constrained by actions than by card draw so far - I keep drawing the noman card and have spent all my actions AND a few darkdrop coffees.
So far, law of large numbers seems to be in my favor. I have spent 20 of my 101 tears (19.8%). I’ve accumulated 654 Noman’s Friend, out of the total of 2554 that according to the wiki I need to get to be guaranteed a successful run. 100 of those were from initial noman creation, so I’m 554/2454 = 22.6% of the way to my goal. So at this rate, I should reach the maximum possible NF loss in under a week of grinding and with a few tears to spare. (And I have an oversupply of pails, used about 20 of my 120 total, down to 100 left.)
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I’m into the 500s at the end of the night and down 13 tears, seems okay. I’m glad I ground some extra pails, I wasn’t thinking and very stupidly wasted some on raising lacre instead of using the tears!
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I’m off to a solid start at 790 Noman’s Friend today, after expending 19 pails and 35 tears (and including the starting 100 NF and another 90 or so from Taste of Lacre built up over the past few years). Tear loss has been a bit high, but I have plenty left (195 tears remaining). It looks like I significantly over-purchased pails (I still have 132 remaining), and would have been better off only buying around 80 in order to meet my target Noman’s Friend of 2649. Once I’m close to that, I’ll just give pails directly to the Noman on the Noman’s Progress card and save the rest of the Tears for later in case the melt rate is unexpectedly high.
I do have some additional useful information: it looks like Tears of the Bazaar will be available at the Rat Market from Feb 13 - Mar 02, so you can stock up on Tears during those weeks if you need some extra Noman’s Friend or if you want a buffer for later.
I lost 7 NF in the first TTH visit. Seems reasonably small, nice.
Currently at 1161 NF, with 75 pails and 59 tears left, with a target of 2554 according to the Wiki. I’m 43.5% of the way there (not counting the free initial 100) having spent 41.6% of my tears and 38% of my pails, so continuing to be on track to hit the target with just a few tears/pails of buffer in case of bad luck. (And of course the option to top off in February-March if needed.) Based on my counts of tears/pails, I’ve switched to using using more pails for lacre besides the minimum 1 per card, since I have an oversupply of pails.
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