Thank you for the extra observation, but I wouldn’t risk another week in case you miss the DeGustibus option.
Your melt and mine both fit the new estimate – low rolls, both of them, but within the new range:
The “extra” amount is still quite small, and likely would be for the rest of May (ending day 146 on the graph), but if the pattern is remotely accurate it accelerates quite appreciably:
But of course, this is only a working estimate. The actual melt mechanics may not fit this scheme.