12th April, ~14:22 UTC:
Noman “Déjeuneige III” lost 205 x Noman’s Friend (new total 1208/2821)
Around a month to go, still! 3-4 melts left, depending upon when Whitsun begins.
Next Melt estimates:
Mon, April 15: 180 - 214
Fri, April 19: 187 - 221
Mon Apr 15 2024 21:02:51 GMT+0300
Noman MayBe lost 186 x Noman’s Friend (new total 1470/3011).
19th April, ~14:22 UTC:
Noman “Déjeuneige III” lost 206 x Noman’s Friend (new total 1002/2821)
Still fitting within our nice linear bands.
If I’ve done the math correctly, it would take about 19k NF to have a year-long Noman?
It would have been somewhere around there, but due to a change made back in September we’ve been told that once Whitsun passes us by the melt rates are going to start going up quite a bit quicker so the current pattern would become increasingly inaccurate. By intent if not literal mathematics, there are to be no Nomen making it to the subsequent December.
The melt rates may be ramping up even now (the notes say the process begins after “100 days or so” which would be April 14th), but if so that ramping up hasn’t become noticeably non-linear yet, and isn’t expected to become much more difficult until after Whitsun when, presumably, there will be very few if any Nomans being measured.
Mon Apr 22 2024 21:02:51 GMT+0300
Noman MayBe lost 219 x Noman’s Friend (new total 1251/3011).
Soon
FBG stated multiple times that they will not allow such feat and will cause issues on their end.
I mention this every time someone seems to find this a challenge. There was a player that ignored all these warnings and abruptly quit after the announcement of melt changes. Even FBG personally warned her to not pursue goals that can damage your wallet and, more important, your well-being.
Hmmm … there’s something rather–and rather apropos–reminiscent of Icarus about that story.
26th April, ~14:22 UTC:
Noman “Déjeuneige III” lost 207 x Noman’s Friend (new total 795/2821)
Third week in a row of increasing by exactly 1; it’s just a coincidence amidst random noise, but it is curious.
Unofficial melt predictions, increasingly uncertain as the spring heat rise around us:
Mon April 29: 204-238
Fri May 3: 211-245
Mon May 6: 216-250 (420-488 combined)
Fri May 10: 224-258 (435-503 combined)
Mon May 13: 229-263 (649-751 combined)
Fri May 17: 236-270 (671-773 combined)
But by Fri May 17th Whitsun will surely have begun (maybe even before the 13th).
Mon Apr 29 2024 21:02:51 GMT+0300
Noman MayBe lost 225 x Noman’s Friend (new total 1026/3011).
Soon…
3rd May, ~14:22 UTC:
Noman “Déjeuneige III” lost 247 x Noman’s Friend (new total 548/2821)
The melt was 2 above the predicted range, so things are probably starting to ramp up a bit.
But, with Whitsun on the 9th that should be quite fine. I might dare the 10th just for curiosity’s sake…
Mon May 6 2024 21:02:51 GMT+0300
Noman MayBe lost 253 x Noman’s Friend (new total 773/3011).
Well…
One more week?
Just for curiosity’s sake.
And for Science.
And MayBe can become the most longliving noman ever…
Some more data will help to refine the theory, but my tentative formula for The New Melt Rate™ predicts that the coming melts will only be 10 points higher on Friday [234-268], and 13 higher on Monday [242-276] which should give both of us plenty of breathing room.
But, if my Friday melt is precipitously high you can always pull the trigger (poor turn of phrase, perhaps) before Monday’s melt to be safe.
If my theory is reasonably accurate, the “bonus” melt factor won’t hit triple digits until June, and quadruple digits in late July. But, it’s only a theory – Friday’s result might prove quite dramatic!
10th May, ~14:22 UTC:
Noman “Déjeuneige III” lost 240 x Noman’s Friend (new total 308/2821)
Noman “Déjeuneige III” was brought to De Gustibus (new total 0/2821 ; 126 days is temporarily a record of interest)
For those curious, Memories of a Doubled Spring increments past 1! Not that there’s any reason to do that if one has anything else to save up for. I think I’m just going for a tattoo next year.
What a powerful bit of writing you got to see for keeping a Noman alive for so long … and for what you did to it. Thank you for your time and resources and putting the results in your journal!
Congratulations! You have inspired me for the First Spring NoMan and now for the Second One!
Are there any Discord user that also has a Noman, if you know?
There’s at least a third player who kept their Noman alive until Whitsun this year. I was hoping some more might come out of the woodwork, since there seemed to be some interest, but I think once you secure your Memory of a Doubled Spring it might just be a membership of three.
But, perhaps next year – grinding Threnodies and Tears is admittedly a bit of an affair (the Nightwhispers are efficient and easy given a few months thanks to the Tigers down south). This next year will have the advantage of easier Favourable Circumstance grinding to force-draw Urchins to buy their snow, since the new item slots have effectively raised BDR potential.
What do you mean no reason? It isn’t a true vanity quality if you don’t take it at least to 7 
Congratulations!
Mon May 13 2024 21:02:51 GMT+0300
Noman MayBe lost 247 x Noman’s Friend (new total 526/3011).
It’s strange. It’s less than the last week…
Maybe FBG have adjusted melt rates for PostWhitsun weeks only?
Nevertheless, one more week to be sure. As I have understood from 20 to 23 May you cannot hatch eggs but you can use other Fest-relative areas, as De Gustibus. And then we will see… May Be…
Thank you for the extra observation, but I wouldn’t risk another week in case you miss the DeGustibus option.
Your melt and mine both fit the new estimate – low rolls, both of them, but within the new range:
The “extra” amount is still quite small, and likely would be for the rest of May (ending day 146 on the graph), but if the pattern is remotely accurate it accelerates quite appreciably:
But of course, this is only a working estimate. The actual melt mechanics may not fit this scheme.