Seventh TtH: Feb 18, 14:25 UTC You’ve lost 86 x Noman’s Friend (new total 246 - The Noman is pristine).
20th February 11:40 UTC
You’ve lost 86 x Noman’s Friend (new total 285 - The Noman is pristine).
This week’s melt rates of my characters:
Kitty: 22nd February 00:42 GMT+01: -115 x Noman’s Friend (new total 263)
Cattus: 23rd February 10:45 AM GMT+01: -102 x Noman’s Friend (new total 337)
Eighth TtH: Feb 25, 14:25 UTC lost 117 x Noman’s Friend (new total 129 - The Noman is pristine). I think I’m going to kill him before the next TtH comes, so this is the last report.
Friday, 25 February 2:15 PM UTC
You’ve lost 102 x Noman’s Friend (new total 65 - A little time remains to the Noman).
That’s also it for Jon Snow! He decided to retire early to melt with dignity. He was a jolly fellow, if a bit dry of conversation for parties. But didn’t we have fun breaking into other people’s houses and stealing random boxes! Cheers to you Jon Snow!
edited by Mr J on 2/25/2022
25th hit for 109 NF, but I can still roll a few more weeks.
Account 1: 25 Feb., 14:43 UTC: Lost 113 NF
Account 2: 25 Feb., 14:44 UTC: Lost 107 NF
27th February 11:40 UTC
You’ve lost 125 x Noman’s Friend (new total 160 - The Noman is pristine).
Looks like my boy gets to live another week.
My character’s melt rates for this week:
Kitty: 1st March, 00:42 AM GMT+01; -112 x Noman’s Friend (new total 151).
Cattus: 2nd March, 10:46 AM GMT+01; -112 x Noman’s Friend (new total 225).
Account 1: 3 Mar., 14:43 UTC: lost 131 NF
(Account 2’s Noman was put to an end last week, as it would not have survived another TTH.)
6th March 11:40 UTC
You’ve lost 134 x Noman’s Friend (new total 26 - The Noman is almost gone).
Goodbye, friend. We had a good run. That’s me done for another year.
4th March hit for 137.
And 11th hit for 134. 65 days and counting. :)
edited by Skinnyman on 3/12/2022
Thank you one and all for your data this year (and if you’ve still got some more, feel free to keep it coming!) which has been invaluable to mapping the pattern. The past few weeks have caused the upper bound to be bumped up twice (now range of 33, originally 30), but it’s still close enough to the linear model that it’s PROBABLY still accurate.
A rough estimate suggests the fabled Year Long Noman would require 564-623 Pails of Lacre and 658 - 727 Tears of the Bazaar (or 1 really, really, really lucky bottle), which is POSSIBLE but incredibly unlikely (you need to organically draw the Urchin Card 4+ times a day and grind Favourable Circumstances to make up an extra 6 draws per day, for all of December and January) and incredibly expensive (we’re talking about 2 Hesperidean Ciders worth of Tears, Threnodies, and Night-Whispers). Although, if you’d just like your Noman to see the Fruits of the Zee, say, you’ll only need 215-252 Pails and 251-294 Tears. Much more achievable!
Graph with current data below the spoiler:
How much would it take to last to Whitsun? Asking for a few Apicious friends…
[quote=PSGarak]How much would it take to last to Whitsun? Asking for a few Apicious friends…[/quote] Looks like someone would need 1959 - 2554 Noman’s Friend, which can be done with 69 - 91 buckets and 81-107 tears (or more if you’re unlucky). Bigger than we’ve tried to date, but with a sufficient stock of Threnodies and Night-Whispers and Tears ready to go, it’s perfectly manageable. 33900 - 44000 Echoes in total, but a small price to pay to have your Noman for dinner. To have them for dinner, not to have them for dinner; of course not.
I’ll make a note to update the wiki calculator to give buckets-and-tears as an option, because at higher and higher values just buckets becomes impossible simply because of how many Urchin Draws would be required. Although at a certain point we’re going to have to worry about spending a literal week of actions applying Snow and Tears to the Noman, too.
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I forgot to post last week’s melt rates, so I’ll do it now.
Kitty: 8th March 00:42 AM GMT+01, -140 x Noman’s Friend (new total 11)
Cattus: 9th March 10:46 AM GMT+01, -136 x Noman’s Friend (new total 89)
Kitty then said goodbye to her Noman (to get an Elemental Secret), and Cattus’ Noman was taken away today by Time, the Healer:
Cattus: 16th March 10:46 GMT+01, -124 x Noman’s Friend (new total 0; I added some Noman’s Friend before, so it was at 124 when TtH visited)
Much to my delight, however, it was possible to let Time, the Healer pass and still get an Elemental Secret via "The Sense of an Ending", as long as the "Noman’s Progress" opportunity card was open. Because as long as the card is open, the "Noman’s End" storylet won’t autofire. So I didn’t have to sacrifice Cattus’ Noman before its Noman’s Friend indeed reached 0. That was nice.
Well, the 18th hit for 151 and this is my last reliable reading for this year. Only 82 NF left.
Umpffff, I’m goind to hate the next TtH. :( 71337.5 echoes for a total of 358 days over the course of 5 years, but that story always gets me!
edited by Skinnyman on 3/21/2022
“Goodbye, I was glad to be. Think of me kindly. All shall be well, and all—”
Gone, again! Only after 77 days…