Cards with 2 (or more) unlocking conditions turn out to be 2 (or more) times more likely to be drawn. Now, I know that this is an outlandish claim, but I’ve procured hard evidence for it, so please bear with me!
Before anything else, I’d like to direct you to this study done previously on the opportunity deck: https://www.reddit.com/r/fallenlondon/comments/50ctcr/card_draw_probabilities_an_exhaustive_study/
It found some highly improbable anomalies in the deck, and - what’s relevant here - all the affected cards have 2 unlocking conditions, and the biggest offenders (SMHS…) have 3.
(for the sake of full disclosure, I should note a flaw in this study: "each card progressed through all five slots of the lodging before it was played" - this had a flattening effect on the graph, as any anomalously common/rare cards would spend more/less time in the hand, thus reducing/increasing their draw rate. So, in reality, the anomalies should be expected to be even bigger than what was found out)
Also of relevance is this post by someone who peeked at the source code of the app: https://www.reddit.com/r/fallenlondon/comments/83aocr/opportunity_deck_research/
They’ve ruled out card mislabeling as unlikely, and also described the drawing mechanism in a way that shows how the bug could be happening: presumably for each condition after the first, a card gets duplicated, and thus gets an additional roll.
Of course, so far this is all circumstantial, which is why I made a series of my own Storynexus experiments with the help of Passionario#5970
You can also verify our results by yourself, in Passionario’s Nexus World: Shenanigans | Storynexus.com
Phase One: the control
First Card: standard frequency, no unlocks
Second Card: standard frequency, no unlocks
Sample: 100 drawings to a 1-card hand (2 permanent blocker cards were used)
Results: 56 first, 44 second
Conclusion: the world works as expected, no inherent anomalies
Phase Two: main experiment
First Card: standard frequency, no unlocks
Second Card: standard frequency, two unlocks
Sample: 300 drawings to a 1-card hand (2 permanent blocker cards were used)
Results: 108 first, 192 second (interesting partial results: 33:67 and 66:134 - right on the money!)
Conclusion: the bug is real
Phase Three: testing for scaling
First Card: standard frequency, no unlocks
Second Card: standard frequency, ten unlocks (yes, 10 - you can only see 4 in the world 'cos 6 are of the "at most" variety)
Sample: 100 drawings to a 1-card hand (2 permanent blocker cards were used)
Results: 11 first, 89 second
Conclusion: the bug is definitely real AND scales with the number of unlocks
(Also, the Remote Lodgings made things worse for those not using them…)
edited by mp on 1/13/2019