Grinding for A guest room at the Brass Embassy

Fallen London
1

Hello. I’ve been thinking about getting obtaining a lodging at the Brass Embassy, and I think I might have found a more efficient way to gain 1250 brilliant souls other than using Thefts of a Particular Character. Grinding for memories of distant shores in the labyrinth by breeding a somnolent hyena and then converting them to brilliant souls may be preferable. The only issue is that it’s partially luck based, and I don’t know the luck percentage. Either way, breeding and converting MoDS to brilliant souls is worth more epa than Thefts of Particular Character.

After hearing from xKiv, accounting for the prisoner’s honey needed to capture a Somnolent Hyena shows that breeding no longer appears to be the most efficient way to grind brilliant souls. This post will be left as a reference, to prevent another person from crunching this math.

  1. Thefts of Particular Character (most straightforward)

[ul][li]25 brilliant souls are gained attempt[/li][li]32cp of casing used on success[/li][li]using a gang of hoodlums gives 18cp of casing[/li][li]every 16 uses of a gang of hoodlums allows 9 attempts at brilliant souls[/li][li]1250 / 25 = 50[/li][li]16 (gang of hoodlums) * 5 actions + 9 actions = 89 actions for 9 batches of brilliant souls[/li][li]89 actions * 5 rounds = 445 actions for 45 batches of brilliant souls[/li][li]5 more batches come from 9 uses of a gang of hoodlums and 5 actions for cashing in (9 * 5 + 5 = 50 actions)[/li][li]total number of actions needed is 445 + 50 = 495 actions[/li][/ul] EPA

  • (1250 * 0.5) / 500 = 1.25 epa[/li][li]if only doing 9 batches at a time: (225 * 0.5) / 89 = ~1.264 epa
  1. Breeding a Somnolent Hyena and Pulling out the Stops (80 MoDS/55 MoDS, 70% or 80% luck check)
  • getting 100 honey (Doing the decent thing), going from the 4th coil to the 2nd coil, capturing the hyena, and back to the 4th coil takes 7 actions[/li][li]using the 3cp options raises a quality to level 6 in 7 actions[/li][li]raising all three qualities to level 6 requires 7 * 3 = 21 actions[/li][li]breeding the hyena takes 1 action[/li][li]7 actions for obtaining + 21 actions for preparing + 1 action for breeding = 29 actions needed to breed the hyena[/li][li]80 MoDS for a success, 55 MoDS on failure (70% or 80% luck check)
assuming 70% chance of success

[ul][li](80 * 70%) + (55 * 30%) = 72.5 MoDS per breeding[/li][li]1250 / 72.5 = 17.24 => 17 or 18 breedings needed for 1250 MoDS (dependent on breeding luck)[/li][/ul] if 18 breedings are performed

[ul][li]72.5 * 18 = 1305 MoDS obtained[/li][li]converting MoDS to brilliant souls is done at a ratio of 50:51[/li][li]converting 1250 MoDS takes 1250 / 50 = 25 actions[/li][li]1250 * (51/50) = 1275 brilliant souls[/li][li](18 breedings * 29 action per breeding) + 25 actions for conversions = 547 actions with 55 MoDS and 25 brilliant souls left over[/li][/ul] EPA

  • [(1275 brilliant souls * 0.5 echoes) + (55 MoDS * 0.5 echoes)] / 547 actions = ~1.216 epa
assuming 80% chance of success

[ul][li](80 * 80%) + (55 * 20%) = 75 MoDS per breeding[/li][li]1250 / 75 = 16.66 => 16 or 17 breedings needed for 1250 MoDS (dependent on breeding luck)[/li][/ul] if 17 breedings are performed

[ul][li]75 * 17 = 1275 MoDS obtained[/li][li]converting MoDS to brilliant souls is done at a ratio of 50:51[/li][li]converting 1250 MoDS takes 1250 / 50 = 25 actions[/li][li]1250 * (51/50) = 1275 brilliant souls[/li][li](17 breedings * 29 action per breeding) + 25 actions for conversions = 518 actions with 25 MoDS and 25 brilliant souls left over[/li][/ul] EPA

  • [(1275 brilliant souls * 0.5 echoes) + (25 MoDS * 0.5 echoes)] / 518 actions = ~1.255 epa
The best case scenario is when 16 breedings are performed. 15 breeding successes and 1 failure give 1255 MoDS, which is highly unlikely.

[ul][li]70% => 0.7[/li][li]0.7 ^ 15 = 0.00474756… => 0.475%[/li][li]80% => 0.8[/li][li]0.8 ^ 15 = 0.035184… => 3.518%[/li][li]only 489 actions would be needed, and 5 MoDS and 25 brilliant souls would be left over[/li][/ul] EPA

  • [(1275 brilliant souls * 0.5 echoes) + (5 MoDS * 0.5 echoes)] / 489 actions = ~1.309 epa
The worst case scenario is when 23 breedings are performed. 23 failures gives 1265 MoDS and is almost impossible.
  • 30% => 0.3[/li][li]0.3 ^ 23 = 9.4143… * 10 ^ -13 => 0.0000000009414%[/li][li]20% => 0.2[/li][li]0.2 ^ 23 = 8.3886… * 10 ^ -17 => 0.000000000000008389%[/li][li]only 667 actions would be needed, and 15 MoDS and 25 brilliant souls would be left over[/li][li]about as likely as getting struck by lightning in the Neath while you are being declared as a new Master of the Bazaar
EPA
  • [(1275 brilliant souls * 0.5 echoes) + (15 MoDS * 0.5 echoes)] / 667 actions = ~0.9671 epa

edited by yang573 on 8/8/2015
edited by yang573 on 8/8/2015
edited by yang573 on 8/11/2015

2

Thoughts?

Specifically, does anyone know the luck percentage?
edited by yang573 on 8/8/2015

3

[color=rgb(194, 194, 194)]You should also consider (pre PosI) the Tipping your hat to devils option in unfinished business on ladybones road which gives you Amanita Sherry at a rate of ~10 per action (or converted to appropriate numbers 105 b-souls/20 bottles of brandy for 51/53 actions respectively) whereas the thefts in the flit take 56 actions for the same amount (without an extra gain of 2,50 echos). It balances out with the gang of hoodlums which take 46,666… actions for the same amount but without the extra echos (with Shadowy 101). Though at this point one likely has higher shadowy here the tipping points are at Shadowy 122 for the 3 cp options and and Shadowy 62 for the gang of hoodlums[/color]

[color=rgb(194, 194, 194)]On an additional note the PosI option for Souls has the same average payout as the Tipping your hat option but with a risk of losing conneceted helll and getting nothing at all up to shadowy 167[/color]
[color=rgb(194, 194, 194)]
[/color]
[color=#c2c2c2]This seems to be slower then your option but it would certainly help anyone without a high dangerous score.[/color]
[color=#c2c2c2]
[/color]
[color=#c2c2c2]Here the EPA is 1,029 so still more efficient than the thefts of a particular character in the flit for lower shadowy.[/color]
edited by Moritz on 8/8/2015

4

I’m assuming one is already a PoSI and can 100% these skill challenges.

The Tipping your hat to devils gives ~10 sherry per action, which works out to ~1 epa. The soul option in unfinished business (The prince of…) gives 1-120 souls. Assuming the average is 60 souls, that means the epa is ~1.10. However, people with lower stats should probably consider what you suggest.

5

Yes I was only doing these calculations because I had done them anyway already for my level and I think it is quite useful to have one of the final lodgings earlier and if it is just for the option on the PoslC card.

6

No need to assume - 3058 results have proven to me that the average is indeed 60 souls.

7

[quote=Yang Yang]1. Thefts of Particular Character (most straightforward)

[ul][li]25 brilliant souls are gained attempt[/li][li]32cp of casing used on success[/li][li]using a gang of hoodlums gives 18cp of casing[/li][li]every 16 uses of a gang of hoodlums allows 9 attempts at brilliant souls[/li][li]1250 / 25 = 50[/li][li]16 (gang of hoodlums) * 5 actions + 9 actions = 89 actions for 9 batches of brilliant souls[/li][li]89 actions * 5 rounds = 445 actions for 45 batches of brilliant souls[/li][li]5 more batches come from 10 uses of a gang of hoodlums and 5 actions for cashing in (10 * 5 + 5 = 55 actions)[/li][li]total number of actions needed is 445 + 55 = 500 actions[/quote][/li][/ul]At 25 Brilliant Souls per 32 cp of Casing, you’ll need 1,600cp of Casing.
That’s 89 Gang of Hoodlum clicks. 445 actions. 1602 Casing.
50 actions to get the Brilliant Souls. 495 actions.

Up converting Sherry requires 600 actions to get the Sherry and 12 actions to convert it. 612 actions.
Up converting regular Souls requires 500 actions to get the souls, 60 actions to make it Sherry and 12 actions to make it Brilliant. 572 actions.

The trouble with the breeding option is that the luck check doesn’t mean you get 70% of the rewards. It means 70% of the time, all those actions are completely wasted.
When your data points are between 16 and 23, that’s a pretty huge margin. You’re taking a risk to save, hopefully, 10 actions.

8

[quote=Nigel Overstreet]
At 25 Brilliant Souls per 32 cp of Casing, you’ll need 1,600cp of Casing.
That’s 89 Gang of Hoodlum clicks. 445 actions. 1602 Casing.
50 actions to get the Brilliant Souls. 495 actions.[/quote]

Fixed, thank you.

[quote=Nigel Overstreet]
The trouble with the breeding option is that the luck check doesn’t mean you get 70% of the rewards. It means 70% of the time, all those actions are completely wasted.
When your data points are between 16 and 23, that’s a pretty huge margin. You’re taking a risk to save, hopefully, 10 actions.[/quote]

Pretty good odds means a 70% or 80% chance. We don’t know what it actually is. When I checked, the community spreadsheet only has one attempt entered for this action. Failure also doesn’t mean you waste your actions in this case. If/when you fail it, you get a partial reward. The main reason to go this route is for the higher epa. Finally, 23 rounds of breeding is the absolute worst case scenario, and it’s basically impossible. The margin is more likely to be 16 - 18 because all other cases have a very slim chance of happening. Assuming the luck chance is 70%, there is a 0.3 ^ 6 = 0.0729% chance of 6 failures happening. Even with 6 failures, you still only need 12 successes to get enough MoDS for conversion.

9

It’s still taking a risk on a series of luck checks, to save a pretty minor amount of actions.
It boils down to &quotThis is better…if everything goes according to plan.&quot
Most FL players are pretty risk averse when it comes to long term grinds. When you get an average or better than average amount of success on the luck checks, people feel a little better for having saved the 10 actions or so.
When you get even slightly worse than average, folks get absolutely furious!

It’s why so many folks hate the Fidgeting Writer, despite being a pretty efficient Echo grind long term.

10

For breeding, don’t forget that capturing the hyaena costs 100 prisoner’s horny, and entering third coil costs 10 cryptic clues. This changes the epa slightly (you should account for it by adding about 2 actions to each breeding, maybe 2.4).

11

I’ve done this grind myself, but I think the way I did it may have been a bit more rewarding than your method.

So I started by straight up buying 30,000 common souls. Well, to be fair, at that point, I had 6,000 already, so I only bought 24,000.

I got the money for this (and it is a copious amount) by repeatedly grinding expeditions in the forgotten quarter. It took me about… …3 months?

The rewarding part is this:

In the conversion of common souls to brilliant ones, you gain some Connected:Hell. I began this conversion process at Connected Hell: 20.

I ended it at Connected:Hell 56.

Also, there was something immensely satisfying about straight up buying 24,000 souls in one fell swoop :P.

12

No need to assume - 3058 results have proven to me that the average is indeed 60 souls.[/quote]

514 results on my end are also saying an average of 60 souls (59.46, but that’s variation), making this 1.2 epa. Anyways.
Chance of success on breeding is 71% HOWEVER, that’s just from FOURTEEN results. That’s dismal. And also assuming the chance of success is the same for each breeding. I plan to breed the Rubbery Hound a few times just to see what you get out of it, that’ll help even things out…

13

30000 souls is … 500 turns in spite? That’s not even an entire week of dedicated clicking. Less than four weeks if you play only 20 actions per day.
Three months is entirely too long to get there, I reckon.

14

To be fair, this was before POSI status, so I didn’t have any of the unfinished business storylets

15

You probably could have used this option, which would have cut the grind down to 1,071 actions. Thefts of a Particular Character would have been better if your Shadowy was high enough to use The Decoy with 100% success, but you wouldn’t get extra Hell connections that way.

That said, what’s done is done, and the important thing is that you’re happy with the way you accomplished your task. Doesn’t need to be efficient if you’re having fun.

edited by Sara Hysaro on 8/11/2015

16

Good call. After redoing the math, it seems that breeding is no longer viable for grinding brilliant souls. I accounted for the prisoner’s honey, but not the cryptic clues since you seem to get so many of them from anywhere.

17

I am fairly certain you could have gotten to PoSI, grund your shadowy to where the unfinished souls are 100%, got the souls, and still have had time for a lot more in just three short months.

18

[quote=Cotton Dee]I’ve done this grind myself, but I think the way I did it may have been a bit more rewarding than your method.

So I started by straight up buying 30,000 common souls. Well, to be fair, at that point, I had 6,000 already, so I only bought 24,000.

I got the money for this (and it is a copious amount) by repeatedly grinding expeditions in the forgotten quarter. It took me about… …3 months?

The rewarding part is this:

In the conversion of common souls to brilliant ones, you gain some Connected:Hell. I began this conversion process at Connected Hell: 20.

I ended it at Connected:Hell 56.

Also, there was something immensely satisfying about straight up buying 24,000 souls in one fell swoop :P.[/quote]

You know you could have gotten there by grinding casing and then buying connections I got from Hell 20 to Hell 50 in about 2 days.

19

Is there an alternate way to get this one like there is for the Reservation at the Royal Beth and the Bazaar Premises? I’m nowhere near trying to get these, just curious.

20

Yep! It’s on the Hell faction card and requires you to be an Intimate of Devils in addition to 500 Brilliant Souls, 100 Muscaria Brandy, 1 Brass Ring, and 50 Connected: Hell.