Fishing for PoSI Souls: Number Crunching

Heck, I’d do it for free.

For reference, I’m currently stuck without a soul.

At the moment things are up in the air about how hard the nerf is. We can make assumptions all we like about how it might now be 1/1008 chance, but that’s the thing. They’re just assumptions. There’s the distinct chance that souls might actually be 10 or even 50/1008, as are a few of the rarer bundle options.

I currently have 50 surprise packages sitting in my inventory that I haven’t opened because of the same wedding that took priority over getting my soul back. I’ll open them and record the results I get. We all might be pleasantly surprised.

Another thing we might want to consider is just how lucrative this grind was. 2.3 epa? Are you kidding me? 2.3 epa for a one time payment of 25 fate was begging for a nerf. When the economy of Fallen London has been so carefully and meticulously created for a nice balanced experience, 2.3 epa is game breaking. Take a look at the other grinds available in Fallen London, 2.3 epa is a full 30% higher than anything else.

The real downside to this nerf however, is that Lacre is no longer grindable. Not feasibly in any case. Unless we see changes next Sacksmas.
edited by Cecil on 3/2/2015

I just drew the card with the Fate option to get your soul back. I’ll hang on to it for now- I don’t want to lose the chance to contribute to finding a soul’s new hiding place. :)

[quote=Cecil Palmer]
The real downside to this nerf however, is that Lacre is no longer grindable. Not feasibly in any case. Unless we see changes next Sacksmas.
edited by Cecil on 3/2/2015[/quote]

You can still grind night whispers and storm threnodies though, it’s just a tad bit more complicated. But you’ve got a whole year until that happens to stockpile, sooo…

(And re: everything else: yeah that’s pretty much why I said I wasn’t surprised. Like, when I was doing the math for the grind it turned out it was better to buy rats at the bazaar than use an action on Unfinished Business in Spite to get them to power the Rookery Password. Like, that’s clearly not a thing that’s supposed to happen.)

[quote=WormApotheote][quote=Cecil Palmer]
The real downside to this nerf however, is that Lacre is no longer grindable. Not feasibly in any case. Unless we see changes next Sacksmas.
edited by Cecil on 3/2/2015[/quote]

You can still grind night whispers and storm threnodies though, it’s just a tad bit more complicated. But you’ve got a whole year until that happens to stockpile, sooo…

(And re: everything else: yeah that’s pretty much why I said I wasn’t surprised. Like, when I was doing the math for the grind it turned out it was better to buy rats at the bazaar than use an action on Unfinished Business in Spite to get them to power the Rookery Password. Like, that’s clearly not a thing that’s supposed to happen.)[/quote]

You know what. I’d completely forgotten precisely how one got lacre buckets. You’re right, it’s still grindable. The connection between selling your soul and grinding it back for lacre buckets was really ingrained in my head. Now it’s not really then and there grindable, not to the same extend anyway, I think anyways.

Also, specifically, just because it’s better to buy resources doesn’t mean that it’s game breaking. Just that the epa being generated is… No. Yeah. It would be game breaking. In order to beat unfinished business you’d need an epa of 2.2 or higher (twice unfinished business). Nevermind me. I really hope the chances of getting your soul back isn’t 1/1008 though. Oh! The wedding has come and gone so I can start opening boxes now! I’ll record the results, see if my soul’s in one of them.

I suddenly wonder if they stuck the soul at 666. Of course, if so, that only adds a rare card (The Velocipede Squad races by in Veilgarden) to the list of things that can have it, in addition to notability packages and player sent packages. Well, useless to speculate, but it would be thematic. :)

I opened 54 or 55 packages, and there were no souls to be seen.

Be sure to try One’s Public whenever it comes up - someone got their soul from it today.

From the bundle of oddities (from choosing &quotSpeak for a little while and ask them to disperse&quot)? If so that narrows down the range considerably.

Also, I ran across this today and I had to share:

(Gonzo trying to find a pen so he could sell his soul to Alice Cooper.)
edited by MadmanAtW on 3/4/2015

Yep! The other options don’t provide a bundle, so it was definitely that option.

So, the wiki lists that action as giving bundles up to 197. Also, the wiki’s list of bundles is incomplete in as much as 101-200 is Compromising Documents, but the next thing doesn’t start until 202 there. I consider it very likely that (a) the One’s Public option actually goes to 200 or 201, and (b) the soul is now at 200 or 201. (It being any other number between 101 and 200 splits the Compromising Documents into two sections, which I am willing to operate under the assumption that Failbetter would avoid.)

That gives us the following options, in addition to the full range boxes:
One’s Public (as seen above)
Hoist the Black Flag (zailing)
Trade Favors with the Urchins (also gets you scrap)
Trade Fourth City Rags (from Wolfstack in the Fog, Standard card only drawn in Wolfstack)
A little extortion (same source)
Trade Black Felt garments (also from Wolfstack in the Fog)
Grab whatever you can carry (Bonfire of the Decencies, Rare Wolfstack card)
Hello, what’s this? (From The Velocipede squad races by, rare card in Veilgarden)

And a bunch of options that are linked to lower level stories.

The closest to grindable there is probably Hoist the Black Flag, if you have a 5 card lodging you can go to zee and cause that card to flip a pretty good number of times a day, but you’re wasting a lot of other actions. Otherwise, you probably want to hang out in the Flit (for trade favors with urchins) or Wolfstack (for both Wolfstack in the Fog and Bonfire of the Decencies).

Anyone see gaping holes in my logic or have any other ideas?

My soulless alt has access to the student body, so that’s pretty convenient for her. If you haven’t finished the University yet it might be a good option. It also lets her stay in London to draw One’s Public, just in case that card’s range was simply expanded to include the soul value rather than that value being located within the old range.

edited by Sara Hysaro on 3/4/2015

A good point, I meant to point that one out as straddling the line for “lower level stories”. I’m long since out of the University but that’s probably the best bet for anyone who is still in.

[quote=MadmanAtW]So, the wiki lists that action as giving bundles up to 197. Also, the wiki’s list of bundles is incomplete in as much as 101-200 is Compromising Documents, but the next thing doesn’t start until 202 there. I consider it very likely that (a) the One’s Public option actually goes to 200 or 201, and (b) the soul is now at 200 or 201. (It being any other number between 101 and 200 splits the Compromising Documents into two sections, which I am willing to operate under the assumption that Failbetter would avoid.)

That gives us the following options, in addition to the full range boxes:
One’s Public (as seen above)
Hoist the Black Flag (zailing)
Trade Favors with the Urchins (also gets you scrap)
Trade Fourth City Rags (from Wolfstack in the Fog, Standard card only drawn in Wolfstack)
A little extortion (same source)
Trade Black Felt garments (also from Wolfstack in the Fog)
Grab whatever you can carry (Bonfire of the Decencies, Rare Wolfstack card)
Hello, what’s this? (From The Velocipede squad races by, rare card in Veilgarden)

And a bunch of options that are linked to lower level stories.

The closest to grindable there is probably Hoist the Black Flag, if you have a 5 card lodging you can go to zee and cause that card to flip a pretty good number of times a day, but you’re wasting a lot of other actions. Otherwise, you probably want to hang out in the Flit (for trade favors with urchins) or Wolfstack (for both Wolfstack in the Fog and Bonfire of the Decencies).

Anyone see gaping holes in my logic or have any other ideas?[/quote]

If you’re going to zee repeatedly you could probably manage to grab a few plated seals to help offset costs, at the very least.

Also re: one’s public. Did the person actually get it from that today or are we going by the person who posted in the other thread, because that sounds more like they’d done it in the past, which would certainly be possible when it was at 100.
edited by WormApotheote on 3/4/2015

While I feel sorry for you, I do want to say that I laughed out loud when I read this entry in the bundle spreadsheet:
99 Something monstrous whyyyy this and not a blemmigan

I don’t understand the thought process here.

This is card prompted and fate locked. And only open to PoSI. And excludes you from Seeking.

There is almost no inter-player economy in FL. No exchange takes place with anyone but the bazaar or cards, and then at fixed rates. Everyone can be a billionaire, no one else is impacted.

By my calculation, the 512 successes needed to buy Cider would take a player who: paid Fate for the story, was PoSI, never missed a turn, always immediately drew the relevant card after getting his soul back, never did anything else, and didn’t want to do seeking just under three years of gameplay on average.

The implications of this seem nothing short of cataclysmic! Oops, I mean who cares? If that suits your style of play, all my best to you. The idea that this somehow demanded immediate revision is just baffling.

Yes 2.3 epa [which I don’t think it was in practice, but for argument’s sake] is better than any other grind. Now something else is. And? What’s the implication of that?

Where’s the narrative coherence in me grinding and selling an infinite number of body fat candles; the whole of the Tomb Colony’s collected body fat now alternately rests in my sock drawer or is sold to the Bazaar without distorting the market or denuding the colonists. Is that more or less coherent than selling my soul and stealing it back? Or the army of coalmen and vicars I fed to a carnivorous plant? It’s a game, folks.

[quote=MadmanAtW]I consider it very likely that (a) the One’s Public option actually goes to 200 or 201, and (b) the soul is now at 200 or 201.[/quote]You were correct. 200 is the number. Should be available from The student body then, unless that one has been changed to exclude souls.

Eh, even if it does potentially give souls I don’t think the grind will be anywhere near as profitable, since its only available for part of the carousel.

Yep, it’s available from The student body too. I just got Madison’s soul back last night through that.

Congratulations, soul recoverers. Now that you’ve identified the number I guess we don’t need to pass surprise packages back and forth quite so much, but I’ll still reciprocate if anyone sends me one. :)