I mis-clicked with one of my alts today and lost my acquaintance with the Forger. So they took their first visit to New Newgate since the Criminal Record was introduced … to make things worse this is the only character I had taken to the end of a certain Fate-locked story so had to pay fate to regain his acquaintance.
Another misclick.
Once Rew had to start his monster-hunter career from the very beginning (he just wanted to write a letter, goddamnit !), and now he brutally threw a slowcake’s employee from his doorstep (and a total of 1810 CP of "making waves" with him) instead of eyeing him snobbishly in silence.
The amount of lost MW constitutes as 10-12 salon evenings
Oh well… let the show go on, then.
Edit: just restored the damage
edited by Andrew Astherson on 12/4/2015
I sold my Level 13 plant for wine, I’d love to be able to lock off those choices! More recently, I had just gotten the Singer up to 10 Aquinatance, and then I accidentally borrowed pearls I don’t even want from her, damaging my Steadfast as well and setting me all the way back to 0…
I was attempting to kill to Goat Demon in the Flit - failed 5 70% chances in a row…
Maybe he has some Overgoat ancestry so that’s why he’s hard to kill.
14 Notability… lost on one mis-click… Oddly enough, I wouldn’t have minded so much if it was 15, but this feels… incomplete.
Every time I try the Fidgeting Writer, I’ll invest ~30 Tales of Terror!!, thinking it will give me decent odds of reaching whatever milestone I want to reach (in this case, night whispers.)
After all 30 attempts fail, I swear off the fidgeting writer altogether.
After a month or two, I’ll invariably decide I was just being emotional, that the odds really are in my favour, that I just need to try again with another 30 Tales of Terror…
Pro tip: The fidgeting writer storyline hates you and will give you nothing.
edited by uli on 11/26/2015
That’s your first mistake there.
Fidgeting Writer can be quite profitable, but only in large chunks. 30 will only likely to give you 3 Last Hopes for your Night Whisper on a complete even split, which is rare. It’s pretty statistically likely that you’re going to get a large swath of failures if you’re doing it in such small batches.
That’s your first mistake there.
Fidgeting Writer can be quite profitable, but only in large chunks. 30 will only likely to give you 3 Last Hopes for your Night Whisper on a complete even split, which is rare. It’s pretty statistically likely that you’re going to get a large swath of failures if you’re doing it in such small batches.[/quote]
My napkin maths is that at 30 attempts, you have 96% chance of getting at least one Night Whisper. Losing a 96% luck check is totally in the realm of possibility, but it’s still painful when you lose that many actions and resources.
The thing is that this is the third or so time I’ve started with 30 ToT and lost them all. Which is not that unlikely I was trying to get to Black Lens on those other attempts - so 21% chance of failure each, but…No. No more fidgeting writer for me. Ever.
When I inevitably try again a month from now, I’ll make sure to invest 60 or so.
edited by Sara Hysaro on 11/26/2015
[quote=uli]My napkin maths is that at 30 attempts, you have 96% chance of getting at least one Night Whisper.[/quote]30 ToT at 70% turns into 21 SoDV turns into 14.7 GoSL turns into 10.29 DwtD at 60% turns into 6.174 RNatRB at 50% turns into 3.087 Last Hopes.
Presuming even odds up to the Room Number, which would be pretty miraculous, getting 6 failures in a row on a 50/50 split is not unexpected. With numbers that small, all you need is a tiny bit of bad luck and it all goes pear shaped.
I’ve had, literally, 32 failures in a row on a 70% chance. When you’re dealing with luck checks, the law of large numbers means that, sometimes, life is going to suck beyond the telling of it. The only cure is a larger sample size.
Still too low. Hundreds. You want hundreds, if not thousands, of data points.
Nigel, your’e absolutely correct in the long run, of course.
But his math is solid - if you want to earn just a single Night-Whisper you shouldn’t need thousands of attempts.
Each Tale of Terror’s chance to get to a Night-Whisper is 0.70.70.70.60.5 = 0.1029.
Therefore, the chance of any ToT not making it is 0.8971.
And the chance of 30 of them all independently failing is 0.8971^30 = ~0.038.
The chance of getting at least one Night-Whisper from 30 ToT is ~96%.
The chance of getting at least one Night-Whisper from 60 ToT is ~99.8%.
No guarantees, of course.
edited by dov on 11/26/2015
More funny than painful: I was considering changing up to Writer from Journo, so went to work and finally beat an Extraordinary Short Story into shape. Only trouble is, they want an Exceptional story…
Which reminds me of a question: do I get paid for that story?
– Mal
If I remember correctly, those editors swallowed my Extraordinary Novel without sending half a penny in my direction.
Hmm, that’s a sixty quid opportunity cost, then. Is it worth it?
– Mal
There is another way to get writer profession, once you’re POSI. If you’re not POSI, writer is one of the more rewarding professions available to you, and the rewards tend towards the useful. Is it worth it? Not sure, but I’d say so.
Hmm, I anticipate being PoSI shortly. Perhaps I’ll put it off for awhile. I’d rather have the cash.:)
– Mal
Accidentally selling the Location of the Nadir to the Great Game (at least it wasn’t hell, or the Revolutionaries!)
The moment you realise you went all the way to the Tomb of the Seven without your Watchfull gear on.:banghead:
If I’m not wrong, you can switch gear even while on an expedition. I think.
You are very right. It would have been a very simple click to fix. It just took me until I had already finished the whole expedition to see I had had my dangerous clothes set on the whole time (so -1 instead of +20). Very painful. Still a good way to increase the stat, maybe?