I have 117 Watchful, 106 Dangerous, 105 Shadowy, and 180 Persuasive. I think that I have almost all the locations, I don’t have the Labyrinth of Tigers, I was wondering what grind will give me the best EPA.
War of Assassins (getting collections of curiosities and converting them to maps on the Tomb Colonists card) is the best with your Persuasive, but it takes a long time to pay out and can’t be done alone. None of your other stats are high enough for the end game grinds.
Personally I’d just continue on with the game’s stories until you run out. Once your stats are ~150 or so, you can do some of the higher grinds like Affair of the Box with reasonably good payout and raise your stats at the same time.
edited by Kaijyuu on 9/1/2016
My current grind that gives me the most is educating Lyme at Mahogany Hall (1.05 EPA), it’s a 100% chance. is the collections of curiosities a better grind than this, I have a friend in London I’m sure would be willing to help.
edited by Edward Frye on 9/1/2016
War of Assassins getting Collections of Curiosities is nearly twice as good as educating lyme (which iirc you can get 100% success rate with 180 persuasive). But like I said, you have to wait for Tomb Colonist cards to actually cash in, so you’d probably want to do your other grinds in the meantime.
I’m currently sitting on 48 collections and sloooowly turning them in as I do other things.
Just for future reference, What’s going to be the end game grind?
War of Assassins takes 34 actions; you need a Tomb Colonist favour and to draw their card to trade a cabinet of curiosities. That is a total of 36 actions for 65 echoes of stuff (5 Puzzling Maps and an Extraordinary Implication). If my calculations are correct that is around 1.80 EPA
Also you can raise all four stats depending on which options you take - shadowy and dangerous in the Forgotten Quarter and watchful/persuasive in the Flit.
Edit - that is one of the best end game grinds
edited by reveurciel on 9/1/2016
Which you can boost more if you do it in Wilmot’s End and use the The Faithful Functionary for it’s rare successes of Compromising Documents.
[quote=lady ciel ]War of Assassins takes 34 actions; you need a Tomb Colonist favour and to draw their card to trade a cabinet of curiosities. That is a total of 36 actions for 65 echoes of stuff (5 Puzzling Maps and an Extraordinary Implication). If my calculations are correct that is around 1.80 EPA
Also you can raise all four stats depending on which options you take - shadowy and dangerous in the Forgotten Quarter and watchful/persuasive in the Flit.
Edit - that is one of the best end game grinds
edited by reveurciel on 9/1/2016[/quote]
That is correct. Now, for my disgreements.
it is card based and now requires either unusual sources of favors or two tomb-colonist card draws per cycle, making it non-sustainable- as you can usually get 36 actions before you get the favor and the cash-in, so unless you have the bandaged raven or have a scandal problem, it’s not going to be viable as a primary grind.
The number you cited treats favors as spending an action. Given that favor hoarding is card based and always more profitable than any grind, including it arbitrarily inflates the value of the grind. it’s better valued as a currency, worth whichever is bigger- {2.51 echoes-[action value]/7} or {4.2 echoes - [action value]}. Assuming no optimization, the first is the payout for the worst tomb-colonies conflict card, and the second is the payout for the always-availible action in the forgotten quarter. with perfect card draw and optimization, they can be worth {4.7 - [action value]/5 echoes}, by using the society conflict card with exactly 5 in society’s favor. No matter which number you use, it’s closer to 63 echoes or less per 35 action cycle, as opposed to the 65 echoes per 36 action cycle. Taking this as the most reliable grind and taking this grind, with 1.81 epa as the best grind- it’s 62.55 echoes per cycle.
Which you can boost more if you do it in Wilmot’s End and use the The Faithful Functionary for it’s rare successes of Compromising Documents.[/quote]
That’s not the only one, either. though the others cost cards and only have a chance of saving actions.
edited by Grenem on 9/2/2016
The Affair of the Box is considered the baseline end game grind, because it requires no opportunity cards and no investment of resources. All you have to do in plug actions in and collect the reward every time you complete the carousel, and you get 1.63 EPA. Other end game grinds potentially provide better EPA, but either require you to wait on card draws (War of Assassins/Collection of Curiosities, Heists), invest resources that must be acquired separately (The Fidgeting Writer), or leave London (Port Carnelian).
For the record, I like Heists as an end game grind, but they work best if you’re using a five-card lodging, which means when you’re not on the heist you have to put up with City Vice cards. I much prefer Remote Lodgings to keep the Sardonic Music-Hall Singer and that artist from bothering me.
The Fidgeting Writer grind is only more profitable than regular grinds if you have all the items already, which is unsustainable to say the least. It does have the benefit of only needing a high enough Watchful stat to take all the options, as the main grind has no stat challenges.
Those who have purchased the Soul Trade story and became Spirifers have a better grind of 1.74 EPA, grinding souls through Unfinished Business in Spite and selling them through Hell’s Fence. This assumes trading in the Hell connections in the Forgotten Quarter; anyone know of a more profitable method? It also makes the Royal Beth lodgings card and An Implausible Penance highly profitable too.
Edit: @Grenem, I disagree that the favours shouldn’t be counted as part of the grind. While individual favours are worth significantly more via conflict cards than via grinds, the favours are an integral part of the grind and the lower EPA is counteracted by the higher profits. When you say favours are "always more profitable than any grind" I think you’re conflating optimal profit per action with optimal profit per time period as represented by actions. While the individual actions are each worth more when spending favours through conflict cards, using favours to exchange Collections of Curiosities gives a smaller increase in profit to a far greater number of actions. Say you draw on average five Tomb-Colonist cards plus the conflict card in exactly one week, spending the other actions on AotB - that’s slightly less profit than (counting the conflict card as a fraction of a TC card instead) doing ~2.5 cycles of WoA/CoC trade-in and spending the other actions on AotB.
(Note: I did some rough math to arrive at that conclusion, but I need to check it over and write it out more coherently before I can actually post it.)
edited by Optimatum on 9/2/2016
The Sardonic Music-Hall Singer’s cards can actually be profitable, as I’ve once detailed here:
http://community.failbettergames.com/topic369-sardonic-musichall-singer.aspx#post128153
If you have a boat, Hunter’s Keep is a quite profitable grind, about 1,50 echoes per action (if you don’t count the zee trip), and sudden insights. You can sacrifice EPA for items you can use on the fidgeting writer, or you can get lucky with the rare successes and earn some Searing Enigmas.
[quote=Optimatum]
Edit: @Grenem, I disagree that the favours shouldn’t be counted as part of the grind. While individual favours are worth significantly more via conflict cards than via grinds, the favours are an integral part of the grind and the lower EPA is counteracted by the higher profits. When you say favours are "always more profitable than any grind" I think you’re conflating optimal profit per action with optimal profit per time period as represented by actions. While the individual actions are each worth more when spending favours through conflict cards, using favours to exchange Collections of Curiosities gives a smaller increase in profit to a far greater number of actions. Say you draw on average five Tomb-Colonist cards plus the conflict card in exactly one week, spending the other actions on AotB - that’s slightly less profit than (counting the conflict card as a fraction of a TC card instead) doing ~2.5 cycles of WoA/CoC trade-in and spending the other actions on AotB.
(Note: I did some rough math to arrive at that conclusion, but I need to check it over and write it out more coherently before I can actually post it.)
edited by Optimatum on 9/2/2016[/quote]
TL;DR My point isn’t that there are better ways to spend the favor, but that the epa is overestimated because you’re including a step of a superior epa grind in the process,[1] and buying favors does have superior epa to this grind. This is still one of the best ways to spend favors, and I will admit that, but i’m saying the epa estimate should be something along the lines of the previous 62.5/35 epa or even lower not 65/36. I know, needlessly persnickety, but it’s a valid distinction.
IMO, this grind is still worth doing[3], but the 1.80/1.81 epa number is too high. My calculations yeild, depending on your favor value[*], Anywhere in this range {1.73, 1.79} epa, if you’re doing it in wilmot’s end and getting the rare successes. [4].
[*] Is a favor worth the best use? The best london storylet use? Somewhere in between? The low is pricing favors based on their value on the best of all possible cards, the high value is compared to the best storylet, which is a lot worse. There’s a pretty big difference between the two once your epa is 1.63.
–=–
Footnotes for calculations and elaboration. Read, or don’t, as you prefer.
[1] since the worst non-upcrafting uses for favors have favors still return high yeilds. the worst uses for these favors are still grinds with amazing epa: 2.1 epa or 2.88 epa. [2]So, using the 1.8 echoes option from this calculation including either will create unfair upwards bias, as both are higher epa than the proposed grind.
[2]This makes these uses of favors worth {4.2 - [action value]} or {3.3 - 1/7 *[action value]}In other words, i’m calculating the favor’s value in how much more than standard grinding spending it makes. using the 1.8 number cited here, a favor is worth either 2.4 echoes [storylet, so always availible] or 2.62 echoes. However, this grind is still worth doing in comparison to AOtB.
[3] using the AOtB number of 1.63 epa, since it’s the main practical storylet grind, a comparison of each form of spending favors.
Collections of curiosities: {1.835 - 35[action value]} = 35 * (1.8 -1.63) = 35 * .17 = 5.95 echoes
Or, more accurately, 65 - 35*1.63 = 65 - 57.05 = 7.95 echoes.
Factoring in the opportunity cost [at its highest, at it’s lowest], {7.95 - 4.55 + 1.63, 7.95 - 2.57 + 1.63} = {5.03, 7.01}.
Vs. Rubberies @ 7: {23.1/7 - 1/7 * [action value]} = 3.3 - 0.23 = 3.07 echoes [Card based. Neglects 1 point SOiC, but that’s hard to estimate]
Vs. Society @ 7: {33.5/7 - 1/7 * [action value]} = 4.78 - 0.23 = 4.55 echoes [card based. Neglects 1 point SOiC, but that’s hard to estimate]
Vs. Society @ 5: {23.5/5 - 1/5 * [action value]} = 4.20 - 0.33 = 3.87 echoes [Card based. Neglects 1 point SOiC, but that’s hard to estimate]
Vs. Rubberies @ 5 {18.1/5 - 1/5 * [action value]} = 3.62 - 0.33 = 3.29 echoes [card based. Neglects 1 point SOiC, but that’s hard to estimate]
and, the bare minimum, least worthwhile use:
calling in favors: 4.2 - [action value] = 4.2 - 1.63 = 2.57 echoes. [storylet, therefore inherent value of a favor, since there’s no card drawing required.]
As you can see, this grind is the most profitable use for favors, but it’s not that much better than the next best, and when the value of actions increases because you could go be a spirifer instead, it takes much more of a nosedive than its competition. Plus, unless you get the tomb-colonies faction pet, it’s a lot slower.
[4] Taking the previous favor values, and assuming the alternative is AOtB, and not some fate-locked superior grind, the final profit is somewhere between 65 - 2.57 [availible at any time] and 65 - 4.55 echoes [hugely circumstantial]. this leaves the epa as something in this range {60.45/35, 62.43/35} = {1.72 epa, 1.78 epa}. Either way, it’s not actually 1.8 epa if you treat favors as being worth more than one action. If you add 0.01 echoes like the wiki estimate seems to for the chance of 2 compromising documents in wilmot’s end, you get this range instead {1.73, 1.79} epa. That is the epa range of this grind, and it matches or is lower than the pre-favors version, which was 1.78 out of wilmot’s end and 1.79 inside.
edited by Grenem on 9/2/2016
The thing is, I don’t agree at all that the favour should be included as a separate cost. One full cycle of this grind requires 36 actions, not 35 actions and an outside input of a resource without an easily-defined value. Saying it’s 62.5 echoes per 35 actions is like saying that the Fidgeting Writer grind is 1.9 EPA plus you have to get the items - it leaves out a necessary part of the picture which visibly shifts the net output.
Also I very much disagree that favours should be valued dependent on the baseline grind of choice. As you point out, that makes the numbers change when pursuing a more profitable grind like Spirifing - but what if someone uses Fidgeting Writer, or expeditions, or spends long periods of time in Port Carnelian? You’re saying favours are worth the EPA difference between favours grinds and a baseline grind, but that implies the baseline grind is a guaranteed income rather than a gain of a certain monetary value of items. And it’s not at all guaranteed, for example when pursuing a personal goal (often costing other items) or experiencing seasonal content. So surely it makes more sense to say favours are worth the total gain in money via whichever favour-grind, which is x more than the gain from a normal grind?
One other nitpick: "you’re including a step of a superior epa grind in the process" isn’t accurate. You’re including a step on which the one grind overlaps with a better grind; the step is required for both grinds.
On topic stuff first: no matter how you calculate it, if you can consistently do the 3 supplies action, and fund them with docks favors and previously owned rostygold, expeditions have an average payout of 2.5 epa+. (the plus is based on whether you count the favors as actions- in which case it’s 2.72 epa, or as currency, in which case it’s ~2.55 epa) if you consistently do the rapid-progress option. Even the slow route has an average epa of 2.00+. However, this is card-based in that you need docks favors, so it can’t be your sole grind.
[quote=Optimatum]The thing is, I don’t agree at all that the favour should be included as a separate cost. One full cycle of this grind requires 36 actions, not 35 actions and an outside input of a resource without an easily-defined value. Saying it’s 62.5 echoes per 35 actions is like saying that the Fidgeting Writer grind is 1.9 EPA plus you have to get the items - it leaves out a necessary part of the picture which visibly shifts the net output.
Also I very much disagree that favours should be valued dependent on the baseline grind of choice. As you point out, that makes the numbers change when pursuing a more profitable grind like Spirifing - but what if someone uses Fidgeting Writer, or expeditions, or spends long periods of time in Port Carnelian? You’re saying favours are worth the EPA difference between favours grinds and a baseline grind, but that implies the baseline grind is a guaranteed income rather than a gain of a certain monetary value of items. And it’s not at all guaranteed, for example when pursuing a personal goal (often costing other items) or experiencing seasonal content. So surely it makes more sense to say favours are worth the total gain in money via whichever favour-grind, which is x more than the gain from a normal grind?
One other nitpick: "you’re including a step of a superior epa grind in the process" isn’t accurate. You’re including a step on which the one grind overlaps with a better grind; the step is required for both grinds.[/quote]
Now, I think of favors as having a constant minimum value, at least, because they do, 4.2 echoes minus one action. Like how eyeless skulls have a value of 62.5 echoes minus one action. The minus one action makes it complex when trying to figure out echo values, but for a high estimate of a grind’s profitability, it doesn’t mess with it as much. [after all, you can just reduce the actions per cycle by one, and the echo payout by the cost of a favor.]
That said, you’re right… i calculated it the wrong way. the actual favor value range is {4.2 - 1 action, 4.78 - 1/7 action}, which makes the epa range {60.22*7/244, 60.8/34}
unfortunately, it’s harder to place an echo value on currency that costs actions to cash in- or on ones you need cards to do it with. you can’t just say- "it’s worth this cash-in value". and you can’t just say- "it’s worth this cash-in value minus a 2 echo per action surcharge". saying "it’s worth one action" feels like a crude solution that fails to achieve anything, especially since i don’t think it is.
for calculating epa there are solutions, but when there’s a lot of different cash-ins, some of which are omnipresent and some are unavailable most of the time, you’re going to get the range. The simplest is to take bother the actions to aquire it and its sell price, calculate the epa with each, and go with whichever epa is lower, maybe offhandedly listing the other as well.
even the least valuable [except for upconversions, which are basically a scam now] use of a favor returns more echoes than a simple 1.8 echoes per action, so I categorize it in the same book as the rooftop shack or the overgoat card- a rare, card based action with somewhat or even much better epa.[Overestimating grinds is more painful than underestimating for me, and I feel that 1.8 is an overestimation. where in the range it should be is another matter, but I feel fine with having a range-answer.]
anyways, it’s only a difference of 0.01 epa anyways- (maybe 0.02, depending on how much of an impact the wilmot’s end rare success has)- so i’ll shut up about it now.
[1]http://fallenlondon.wikia.com/wiki/Use_your_Ratting_Piece
The Sardonic Music-Hall Singer’s cards can actually be profitable, as I’ve once detailed here:
http://community.failbettergames.com/topic369-sardonic-musichall-singer.aspx#post128153[/quote]
They can be profitable temporarily, but considering some data gathering suggests that both Singer cards show up twice as often as "A Visit," your Acquaintance: The Repentant Forger will inevitably deteriorate faster than you can replenish it (I know it always does for me). This not only cuts into the reliability of calling upon him to produce banknotes, it also cuts the expected gain from "Talk to a friend of a friend" on the Rooftop Shack card, which is worth 3 echoes per successful play.
Furthermore, it doesn’t make sense to include the echoes from visiting the Repentant Forger when considering the value of the Sardonic Music-Hall Singer, because you can visit the Forger regardless. And if you are regularly playing the Singer’s cards, she will rarely be at Acquaintance 9, leading to an 80% chance of success when asking her to help you. So you have an expected gain of 2 echoes from having her help you and 1.4 echoes from helping her, meaning 1.7 epa at the cost of having all the rest of the City Vice cards in your deck too. It’s more trouble than it’s worth for an epa that’s scarcely better than AotB and which will collapse under its own weight over time anyway.
I think I better understand how you value favours now; while I don’t fully agree with the conclusions, I think it’s clear that evaluating anything needing actions/cards to cash in is A Pain. Anyways, questions about Docks-based expeditions as you’ve clearly done the math already.
Is this 2.5+ EPA for Deep Blue Heaven? What’s the average treasure value for those? How does the EPA change if you include gaining Rostygold, which iirc is best done through the Gang of Hoodlums card at 150 per action? One ending of The Gift adds a card which gives a Docks favour for a few Whispered Hints, any clue what the best way to get those is?
edited by Optimatum on 9/3/2016
I think I better understand how you value favours now; while I don’t fully agree with the conclusions, I think it’s clear that evaluating anything needing actions/cards to cash in is A Pain. Anyways, questions about Docks-based expeditions as you’ve clearly done the math already.
Is this 2.5+ EPA for Deep Blue Heaven? What’s the average treasure value for those? How does the EPA change if you include gaining Rostygold, which iirc is best done through the Gang of Hoodlums card at 150 per action? One ending of The Gift adds a card which gives a Docks favour for a few Whispered Hints, any clue what the best way to get those is?
edited by Optimatum on 9/3/2016[/quote]
-
yes, 2.5+ is for deep blue heaven, though the theive’s cache isn’t terrible either, I believe it is inferior if you can 100% 2 progress actions. the specific numbers are 2.72 at 3 progress an action and 2.36 at 2 progress an action. using your method because mine assumed the next best use of favors which was highly card based, and this has high enough epa that setting it to the standard storylet actually boosts the epa. [A]
-
55.59 echoes. this means the profit per cycle average is ~53.09
-
it drops, of course. the new numbers are 2.64 and 2.31. it drops further if you just buy it, but lots of players have natural stockpiles of rostygold or rats, so i tend to forget to factor that in. [B]
-
the standard dock favors are the faction card and the faction pet- [and if you’re after money, i’m pretty sure this is the current best one.] - but one of them costs 0.1 echoes itself. if you insist on factoring that in, the grind gets a tiny bit worse, but only a tiny bit. Whispered hints have a shortage of great sources, but i have a mysterious stockpile. if you don’t, the tiger in the labyrinth will give you 1100 per 1000 jade, amber, or rostygold provided.
[A] This neglects certain items:
Positives:
a)Random 3 progress instead of 1 at start.
b) eyeless skull results, not included in the average, worth 66 echoes. estimated to occur 10% of the time, but i’d rather underestimate then use faulty numbers.
c) "A Sign"
Negatives:
Y) 0.1 echoes per favor aquired from the faction card, or 1/15th of an action.
Z) A chance of failure on 2-progress. specifically, the same odds of someone flipping 10 coins and getting 9 right while you roll a twenty sided dice nine times and get no 20s. So something like 1 time in 150 trys, your rival will beat you with this method.
edited by Grenem on 9/3/2016
Now this looks mighty fishy.
Usually, the question for best EPA grind asks specifially for a grind - a sequence of action you can indefinitely and continiously repeat regardless of rng-related things (opportunity cards, airs, etc). I mean, if you have to wait for a specific card/airs to advance it, might as well count in Nadir cards (with EPA 62.5 which is rather hard to beat =).
And as far as I know, there is no way to reliably get favours since they were introduced.
edited by Talkes on 9/3/2016
[quote=Talkes]Now this looks mighty fishy.
Usually, the question for best EPA grind asks specifially for a grind - a sequence of action you can indefinitely and continiously repeat regardless of rng-related things (opportunity cards, airs, etc). I mean, if you have to wait for a specific card/airs to advance it, might as well count in Nadir cards (with EPA 62.5 which is rather hard to beat =).
And as far as I know, there is no way to reliably get favours since they were introduced.
edited by Talkes on 9/3/2016[/quote]
TL;DR- They started it with Coc [2 cards in 36 actions now, used to be 1 in 35 and was on the lists then too.], I just escalated. it’s not really a quality defense. :) also, the first time i mentioned it, I clearly denoted it was a sub-grind. something to do when you had resources, and then abandon. just like CoC, except you can do CoC about twice as much with neither faction pet.
Actual blathering on the matter:
Agreed, mostly. But the thing is, it’s still something you should note, and a lot of people don’t see the potential. besides, while the collections of curiosities were grandfathered in pre-favors, it was still one card per 35 actions, even beforehand, and people still listed it as a grind. So I do have precedent, as someone else brought that up upthread. Evidently, fusions count as storylet grinds if it’s storylet dominant, or something? The indepth analysis was because i misinterpreted what optimatium was asking.
Overly detailed answer to an offhanded remark:
Expeditions are more guilty, but they aren’t pure card based either- about four actions per favor, and more if you’re lucky- and i thought that it would be nice to list what good it is as a grind anyways. it does make a good intermission grind, just like CoC. That said, there are actual ways to reliably get favors. They’re just unprofitable or still luck based.[D]
[D] @ airs 96+ you can get a docks favor for 3 actions by following a chandleress to her workshop and confiding in her your fear of moths. i believe you even have a 1/20 chance to roll the airs to get another one for another action, over and over until you fail the roll. in addition, docks can be increased at mutton island’s carosel’s finale, though you pass up much better payouts by doing so, or by making a certain work of art in the court. Tomb colonists gives a favor every time you go to the tomb colonies. Criminals will give you a favor if you trade in a skyglass knife for suspicion reduction while in prison. Only rubbery men are actually left without one card-free option at the moment, [besides force draw with favorable circumstances] and that should change, eventually, or at least unlock something closer. already there’s a fatelocked one in the lane of flutes. There are more listed in my main "guide"- look at the post I link in my signature, but those are the simple ones. the other ones are messy and bloodstained and still not all that profitable.
edited by Grenem on 9/3/2016