Well, I was thinking about it last night and I realized that there were two mistakes being made. One was that we weren’t treating the two cases the same way - gross return for lollipops vs. net return on digging. The other is that we should be looking at this as value added per action to a shilling-to-scrip conversion, so we can ignore the 32% bonus and inputs to the rat market.
How we get the shillings is irrelevant, all that matters is how much value we add per action when converting to scrip.
(Brace yourself, this will take a while)
The value-add situation for lolipops over the process of building and selling it looks like this for licentiates (like me, most players are not):
(action - value)
1 - +2.5E for the headless skeleton
2 - +0 for the skull, we don’t count it as it is what we are converting
3 - +0 for declaration
4 - +10E for the 20 bonus scrip the constable provides, +6.75E as we assume primate week.
That’s 19.25E added over 4 actions → 4.81E in value added per action.
For non-licentiates
1 - +2.5E collecting the torso from Marigold
2 - +0 adding the torso
3 - +0 for the skull, we don’t count it as it is what we are converting
4 - +0 for declaration
5 - +10E for the 20 bonus scrip the constable provides, +6.75E as we assume primate week.
Value added per action: 19.25/5 = 3.85
Now, I’ll have to show the Hurlers a little differently thanks to the fractional actions and my disinterest in calculating the LCDs.
I’ll show it in Echos to remain consistent, even though scrip is the goal.
90E-21E = 69E total value added
69/(14.2 + 0.3 + 0.4) = 4.63E added per action.
From this we can see that non-licentiates with woesels, lit roads, and nightmare reducers (which we can assume for all late/end-game players) will see a greater return by digging in the Hurlers. However, the rate of conversion is always much higher at the bone market, as that converts shillings to scrip at a rate of 12.5EcPA + EaPA, vs. 1.41EcPA + EaPA.
If not clear, that’s
EcPA - Echos converted Per Action
EaPA - Echos added Per Action
Now, here’s the kicker that prompted my original idea - a late/end-game player can assume a base payout of a little over 5EPA/10SPA in the CiS, albeit annoyingly dependent upon the RNG. More if you take your payouts as Verses of Counter Creed and sell them for 30 Scrip at the Library. That adds 7.5-8E depending on where you built the city (3.75-4 EaPA). Or, 10.5-11E if you have a submerged rector and get the right opportunity card (5.25-5.5 EaPA).
This means you can effectively ignore the Rat Market as a source of scrip. Once the conversions are factored in, even licentiates garnering shillings at a rate of 7EPA are barely better off than they would be if they just hung around with tracklayers all day.
Hence my unquestionably brilliant and universally applauded idea of providing an option to purchase 25 boots for 200,000 Rostygold.
And cheers to FBG for agreeing to implement it.