Where to find a dreadful surmise

I can’t find any information on where to obtain a dreadful surmise, and the only information is choices I could of made when I started the game, but didn’t.

There are very few sources; you can acquire one, one time only, from this option at the Feast of the Rose (in February); you can earn one at Hallowmas if you are EXTREMELY dedicated; and there are occasional Fate-locked sources – for instance, Flint contains an opportunity to acquire one.

May I have a little more direction?

If you become an Exceptional Friend right now you can get one, and I think the University Fate investigation option on the 12 Days of Mr Sacks storyline also bestows a Dreadful Surmise. If you don’t mind waiting there’s also the Halloween and Valentine’s Day events which both provide a source of Dreadful Surmises (though the Valentine’s Day one is a one-time only deal and Halloween can only be done once a year, so be sure not to sell it).

I am an exceptional friend, do I have to renew it?

You just need to start going through flint. You’ll see the option to get one.
Note: it is towards the end, so it will interfere with any Sacksmas plans you have
edited by suinicide on 12/25/2015

Oh, yes, sorry for the ambiguity. I’m just referring to the final Flint rewards.

On “Day 4” of the 12 Days of Mr Sacks, there are a lot of fate stories available for purchase. Of those available, one of them hints in its preview text that it will award a “rare mysteries” item.

Your best option is to pursue the upcoming Sacksmas fate-locked stories if you want one within the immediate future, and without interfering with Sacksmas content. Truthseeker and Nitebrite offer the fine details. The requisite fate costs are inexpensive.

It’s eight fate if you just want the Dreadful Surmise, or twelve fate if you want the Dreadful Surmise and a few points of Taste of Lacre. If you’re not willing to spend fate, then your only choices are to wait for the Feast of the Exceptional Rose in February, or Hallowmas in October.

It is not a necessary resource for any in-game content. It can be used during Christmas with unusual pails of snow to get ToL up to higher digits, but the challenge is difficult, and there are easier ways to get lacre to where you need it to be. Essentially, it’s just a nifty mantelpiece item.
edited by Red Herring on 12/25/2015
edited by Red Herring on 12/25/2015

Do note that acquiring it via the Feast of Exceptional Rose will also saddle you with a terrible addiction to one of the most evil substances in the Neath.