…come on, now. It can’t be that easy…can it?? Can you explain how??
On Monday after the rat market closes, Chevy your Gazette in your Lodging to see what the rats are buying. Have 650 echoes of those items by week’s end.
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Why don’t you discard this misplaced phobia you have and simply give it a try and learn by doing?
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…yeah okay, I could do that. I guess. Maybe. I will try. Thanks for the Push?
Based on my absolutely unvalidated model, I predict a 9% chance of Ratty Eclipse this week. We’ll find out in a few hours!
The model also predicts a 49% chance of both Saintly and Intricate Demands, a 21% of only Saintly and 21% of only Intricate.
My model is the simplest possible based on the history of Ratly Demands until now:
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A demand that is not active or in cool-off (Current Demand 0) has a 70% chance to be selected on Monday (Demand increases to 1) vs. 30% chance not to be selected (Demand stays at 0)
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On the following weeks, Demand increases by 1 per week with 100% chance: 1 (activated) ->2->3 (enter cool-off) → 4
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A demand has 30% chance to get 4 total weeks of cool-off (demand increases 4->5->0 in the final weeks of cool-off ) vs. 70% chance to get 3 total weeks of cool-off (demand goes directly 4->0)
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The biggest assumption: all demands are rolled independently from each other and from past history.
This model could explain all demand variations observed so far except for the first two weeks, but I’m willing to assume that the first weeks were seeded manually.
However, I haven’t actually made a statistical analysis to check the validity of the model, especially the assumption that all rolls are uncorrelated. Let’s see after a few more months of history.
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No Eclipse… Both Saintly and Intricate Demands were activated for next weekend.
There will be Mortifications of Great Power for the first time as a tradeable item this weekend, and Tears should also be available. Any late game players looking to Noman this year should take advantage of this.
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Thanks for the tip, although I prefer to spend all my actions to grind scrips now.
It’s not too hard to get Morts and Tears from various sources.
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Agreed, at this point I don’t have much need for spending things that can be sold for Scrip. But Mortifications, that’s interesting. Probably increases the value of the Khanate a notch, plus the Crooked Cross action in Burrow.
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Absolutely it’s not, I’m cashing in my exploits for them and at 19 actions per Mortification (some of which were already completed) this feels promising!
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Something new at the Rat Market next weekend , according to the Gazette: the Whiskery Bibliophile from now on will also buy Chimerical Archives (in addition to Incunabula and Cartographer’s Hoards).
This is another boost to Wellspring Heists which are a consistent source of Archives.
You can also buy Archives in Moulin, but 3 out of 5 of the items required to buy them are already sellable at the Rat Market, so I don’t think it will be very profitable.
The Feathered Dressmaker will also be back to buy Organza and Parabolan Linen next weekend.
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Great, dropping this in the middle of Hallowmas while we are using up actions. 
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Crackling Devices have been unbanned from the Rat Market! You will be able to sell them next weekend to the Belligerent Bombardier.
Soft, Saintly, Inscrutable and Ruinous Demands will also be active next weekend, so you’ll be able to sell many more items than usual.
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Let’s keep an eye on the Gazette next Monday: 6 out of 8 Demands will be in cooldown, so we have a decent chance to see the first Ratty Eclipse in Fallen London history.
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No Eclipse this weekend: Calculating Demand became active.
Time to offload all that Vital Intelligence accumulated with Intrigue at the Khanate.