I just turned a single Tale of Terror into a Coruscating Soul. That odds of that must be at least 5%… o_O
Three 50%, one 60%, three 70% success rate actions, if I remember correctly. So, about 2.6% chance!
I got a Soul the very first time I decided I was going to go all the way with it (rather than deliberately using it to try to get Collated Research or the like). Rare but not impossible! I haven’t tried one since.
I’m currently heavily cycling the Fidgeting Writer storyline as part of CiderQuest… Things are not going well for me.
May I borrow some of your outrageous good fortune? I’ll try to return it in presentable condition.
Not going well? How big are the batches you’re doing?
I’m currently mostly done with a batch of 2000 Tales of Terror!! and slightly ahead of the curve. Expected return for that is 51 souls, my current number of Room Numbers means an expected return of 54.
[quote=Optimatum]Not going well? How big are the batches you’re doing?
I’m currently mostly done with a batch of 2000 Tales of Terror!! and slightly ahead of the curve. Expected return for that is 51 souls, my current number of Room Numbers means an expected return of 54.[/quote]
Can I borrow your fairly average luck? I’ve spend most of the last year converting in batches of 100 and I’ve been getting a shockingly consistent 2 per run (except for that one point where I went 500 without a single soul). It doesn’t seem to matter how well or poorly the conversions go up to that point. 12 Shards of Black Glass? Here, have 2 souls. 2 Shards of Black Glass? Well, you tried. Here, have 2 souls.
More recently things seem to have been improving so in the long run I’ll probably end up hitting the average but the last year has been decidedly below average.
Isn’t two souls about (or slightly below) the expected amount for batches of 100? I’ve usually heard it recommended to do it in batches of at least a thousand as with higher numbers the randomness is less apparent in the moment.
2.6 is the expected amount- so Xe should have been getting one batch of three for every batch of two. But yeah, it’s actually pretty darn close to average. The mediocre side of average.
2.6 is the expected amount- so Xe should have been getting one batch of three for every batch of two. But yeah, it’s actually pretty darn close to average. The mediocre side of average.[/quote]
It’s really that 500 stretch of total, abject failure without any commiserate swing the other direction that kills my over all average. There have also been a number of isolated points where I only got 1 or 0 souls. Like I said though, in the long run it’ll probably all even out. It’s the frequency at which my number of Shards of Black Glass appear to have no bearing on the actual result that is the really weird number.
Also, props for the use of a gender neutral pronoun. I really wish the English language had a universally agreed upon set. At the moment there are a number of different invented sets and it seems like it’s a different one every time I see one.
edited by An Individual on 6/8/2016
I got the soul on my third try. :)
2.6 is the expected amount- so Xe should have been getting one batch of three for every batch of two. But yeah, it’s actually pretty darn close to average. The mediocre side of average.[/quote]
It’s really that 500 stretch of total, abject failure without any commiserate swing the other direction that kills my over all average. There have also been a number of isolated points where I only got 1 or 0 souls. Like I said though, in the long run it’ll probably all even out. It’s the frequency at which my number of Shards of Black Glass appear to have no bearing on the actual result that is the really weird number.
Also, props for the use of a gender neutral pronoun. I really wish the English language had a universally agreed upon set. At the moment there are a number of different invented sets and it seems like it’s a different one every time I see one.
edited by An Individual on 6/8/2016[/quote]
True. One issue with that is that it swings far too often in one direction or the other. Like, the RNG loves handing me watches. I know the numbers say there’s a 1-2% chance of them, but it feels like i’m getting a 5% or better. Other times it hates me- like, i always feel like expeditions are paying out less of the airags i want, and more of the night-whispers- which will be useful in the future, i suppose- but i have 50 already, and am independently wealthy until the next free fate point becomes availible.
[Offtopic:] Well, I’ve misgendered so many people on the internet, i eventually just decided to try to use Xe whenever in doubt about gender. (Some people use he as the default, but that feels vaguely wrong, as does using she instead. Oscilating genders randomly is either confusing or manages to have a 100% failure rate for me, and while the forums do have the avatars, not everyone’s corresponds with their identification gender- assuming they even have one. Xe feels natural to me in the way the others don’t. I suppose it looks so obviously invented i don’t get confused by its meaning.,)