By now, it’s widely known that expeditions to the Tomb of the Silken Thread are one of the most profitable grinds available in the game. There’s some debate around the precise profit, or how it compares to other grinds, but in general everyone accepts that Docks Favours are ideal and Strong-Backed Labour is the next best thing. However, there’s very little analysis looking beyond which resource is used to buy supplies.
I want to compare not only the different sources of Expedition Supplies, but also the effects of different sources of those items. Expeditions are difficult to model statistically, so I’ve written a script to simulate expeditions, which can be found here. The script includes comparisons of all the reasonable ways of grinding Supplies I could think of. (If you have suggestions to improve the code or logic, please share.) Assumptions are as follows:
[ul][li]The player has enough Watchful to guarantee success on all Watchful checks.[/li][li]The player has at least 39 supplies at the start of each expedition, so can always confront the rival if needed.[/li][li]Confronting a rival is rare enough that the Absinthe cost does not require grinding and can be treated as a flat echo cost.[/li][li]Confronting a rival is rare enough that the Nightmares gain is irrelevant and is dealt with by Time, the Healer.[/li][li]The player optimizes their choice of expedition action to both not overshoot the goal and maximize possible value from "A sign?".[/li][li]Rostygold costs do not require grinding and can be treated as flat echo costs. (Using the Regretful Soldier option on A Visit gives large quantities of rats, which can be efficiently exchanged for Rostygold at the Department of Menace Eradication.)[/li][/ul]Notable results:
[ul][li]Strong-Backed Labour is about 2.269 EPA.[/li][li]Docks Favours are 4.768 EPA if obtained for free, and other card sources are well above 4 EPA at worst.[/li][li]Whispered Hints that the player has on hand are 2.790 EPA.[/li][li]Trading owned Jade, Amber, or Rostygold* for Hints via the Tiger-Keeper is 2.609 EPA.[/li][li]Grinding Jade or Rostygold at court and trading it for Hints is 2.132 EPA.[/li][li]Sources that give 150 Hints per action, including various cards, are 2.207 EPA. Hints become better than SBL at 160 Hints per action.[/li][li]The Respectable Landeau card gives bonus Appalling Secrets and comes to 2.478 EPA.[/li][/ul]* I haven’t decided whether using Rostygold for Hints is worthwhile. Because trading rats for Rostygold scales in profit with the number of rats owned, and A Visit provides rats faster than expeditions and Docks Favours consume Rostygold, it might be better to just ignore the Tiger-Keeper for higher rat-to-Rostygold trade efficiency. Thoughts? edited by Optimatum on 6/7/2019
Quick question - Does the on-hand Whispered Hints calculation include the chance of getting 1x Crate of Expedition Supplies + 1x Map Scrap ?
I read your post (ty for putting in the leg-work btw) and was like “I’ve got like twelve thousand of the things - maybe I can do more expeditions rather than waiting for Docks”, only to have that result show up 4 times out of the first 7 attempts at the “Rumours of Treasure” action. :-)
I always wanted to know this information but never had the mathematical bravery to find out for myself.
Thank you.
A not-so-quick question: any suggestions on the best way to go about acquiring the items needed to buy expedition supplies (most action-efficient method)?
If you can spend one action on a Favour, it takes 7.25 actions to accumulate the Favours, 26.5 actions total for the full expedition cycle, which is where 4.768 EPA comes from. If instead it’s 3 actions per Favour, that’s an extra 14.5 actions for the cycle and it ends up coming out to 3.08 EPA.
That’s not enough room that you can afford to cycle Airs to get Favours: Docks at a profit, but enough that a lucky high Airs can be usedto turn a profit. Just over 9 echoes for 3 actions ain’t bad!
The only downsides, really, are the loss of stats for people who are overcapped and the loss of one of the least used stats in the endgame overall. I think if I reliably visited the Chandleress my Dangerous would slowly drop over time, but I’m also a regular Nadir visitor.
I’m thinking of hiring on clay man labor in bulk. I have most of the necessaries stocked, but I’m missing some ten thousand pearls. What do you all suppose is the most EPA-efficient way to gather them? The unfinished business option has the benefit of yielding the occasional scream, but as far as the pearls themselves go it’s rather slow. Is there a better method?
Strong-Back Labour is best bought in the Bazaar Sidestreets. Hints and Docks Favours are best gotten through certain cards or accumulated during regular play.
I’m specifically interested in whether it would be profitable to expend three actions to get one Favour: Docks via Confiding in the Chandleress.[/quote]
Tweaking the simulation, you’d get something around 3.11 EPA, but I’m not sure how you’d refresh Airs without cutting into it.
Off the top of my head, works at Court! Assuming you’ve been to Port Carnelian and earned your reentry, you could do a Carnelian Ballet (using The lead for progress) and earn pearls with some Tribute on the side. It’s definitely better than Unfinished Business, though you’ll have to do the math as to whether it’s better than just buying SBL from the sidestreets.
Apart from the respectable landau card that nets you 2.1EPA, are there any other ways to grind Jade, Amber, or Rostygold before conversion to Whispered Hints?
Still seems like buying SBL from the bazaar side streets is the best option if you are going to grind Tomb of the Silken Thread non-stop for days on end, especially after you factor in the costs and EPA of acquiring items that are exchanged for getting expedition supplies?
There’s no worthwhile grinds for Jade/Amber/Rostygold that I’ve found. The best I know of is composing works in court, but it’s still significantly worse than SBL.
What about "Your own expertise" option? Is it better to exchange Pages of Prelapsarian Archaeological Notes for supplies or trade them in bulk in "Organise your Research" ? edited by Waterpls on 6/25/2019