On rare successes

There are many of them throughout the game, but does someone know how many storylets, speaking in relative terms, do have one? All? Majority? Around half of them, perhaps? Not so many? There are some stories which can be played only once (without spending Nex) - do they have a rare success result?

And what is the estimated probability of one? 10%? 5%? Even less?

From what I can tell, it looks to be less than 10%. 5% might also be a bit high. I’d put it between 1% and 5% depending on the example.

The wiki lists rare successes, but there could be ones they haven’t found. I don’t think FBG is evil enough to put them on single-use storylets. Probability is unique to each one I believe – some are very common, some are incredibly rare.

There is at least one- one of the Loquacious Vicar options pays out a Dreadful Surmise sometimes instead of the usual reward of scraps and extraordinary implications, but it can only be played once.

And, yeah, the probability depends on the storylet, it’s not a universal thing. Some things have pretty much 50-50 odds (like supplies and whispered secrets) while others are really rare, like 4-5% or less.

I’m pretty confident there are quite a few left to find, actually. For example it took some time to find the labyrinth of tigers entrance rare successes, and a lot of people have access to those.

Just from a search on both of the wikis, you can find 3 different results on having your deshrieked mandrake fight a giggling one The wikidot one is probably the rare one, but not very many wants to actually try it. I can imagine others being similar.
edited by Aximillio on 6/4/2014

Thanks, all of you!

Actually, I am well aware of the &quotrare&quot success in gaining supplies with your whispered secrets, as well as of those in deciphering graffiti in Ladybones Road and telling a risque joke in the Singing Mandrake, but I always somehow forget to mention them in this context. Probably because they are not that rare, after all.

Who knows how many of them no one has seen are there? Compelling thought.

Why, no one knows how many haven’t been seen. If someone knew (other than a certain tiger, perhaps), then they would have, in fact, been seen! And that defeats the whole purpose of labeling them ‘unseen.’

Or are you not being quite literal?
edited by DireD on 6/6/2014

That has been only the poetic freedom on my part. Or my silly use of English language? Whatever… of course the answer is: Alexis knows. But it’s not impossible to imagine rumours and whispered stories among the players of Fallen London, which are not totally unfounded.

Oh man, now you’ve opened the floodgates…

(I’m surprised we haven’t had more of those, to be honest. Maybe the simplicity of the mechanics means they’re easily verified… or maybe because the devs really do do crazy stuff, re: Enigma.)
edited by Little The on 6/7/2014
edited by Little The on 6/7/2014