120 on March 6th, a little below average. Definitely agree it feels like a lot, though!
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I think it’s that three-digit number that makes it scary.
It’ll feel really scary when it hits >200. But that’ll be in the home stretch with just a few weeks left.
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TtH visited on March 7th at 02:32 UTC, with a neat bulleted list:
This week was on average.
March 7th.
You’ve lost 113 x Noman’s Friend (new total 2,159 - The Noman is pristine).
Expected 110 to 143. Nearly minimum loss.
3/11, lost 132 NF, expected 117-150. About average loss.
133 on Mar 13th. Continuing to be a little below average.
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132, 13/03. Forgot to check earlier, so thank you for the reminders.
TtH visited on March 14th at 02:32 UTC:
Another average week.
March 14th.
You’ve lost 144 x Noman’s Friend (new total 2,015 - The Noman is pristine).
Expected 122 to 155. Slightly above average.
3/18, lost 155, expected 129-162.
143 lost on the 20/03. Not too bad. ~1750 left.
TtH visited on March 21st at 02:32 UTC, celebrating the arrival of Spring with a high roll:
Predicted range was 134-168.
March 21st.
You’ve lost 148 x Noman’s Friend (new total 1,867 - The Noman is pristine).
Expected 134 to 167, roughly in the middle.
Yesterday, March 20th, 158. A little on the high side. Whitsun still feels awfully far away.
3/25, lost 150, expected 142-175. Actually lost less than last week, lol. Last week was on the high side, this week is on the low side. (So far my overall loss has been 1095, expected average loss has been 1089, so I’m still right by the average, only above it by half a percent.)
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158 lost on the 27.03. I caculate that as a roll of 17, so far from the worst it could have been. Now I’m below 2000 every week feels a bit more dicey. ~1500 remain.
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175 on March 27, near the highest possible. It definitely feels stressful at this point, the numbers say I should be okay but…
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TtH visited on March 28th at 02:31 UTC:
Predicted range was 146-180 so this week was below average.
With this, my Noman now has two full weeks of NF buffer and could survive until after the end of Whitsun (not that I’m planning to let it…)
March 28th.
You’ve lost 168 x Noman’s Friend (new total 1,699 - The Noman is pristine).
Expected 147 to 180, slightly above average. Might actually end up with a buffer week.
4/1, lost 164, expected 154-187, so lost a bit below average. Total lost so far 1259, exactly the average expected value.