The range for today should be 22 to 56, midpoint of 39, so I’d say your roll is on the low end. I just got hit for 37, and I’m feeling better about that now that I’ve done the math.
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I also got 29 on the 16th.
TtH on Saturday Jan 17th at 02:31 UTC:
Predicted range was 24-58.
Saturday the 17th of January:
You’ve lost 26 x Noman’s Friend (new total 2,760 - The Noman is pristine).
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Wednesday the 21st, Lost 52 NF. Expected range 34-64, I think? Don’t have the wiki up to verify my calculation
I’m not enough of a spreadsheet guru to have generalized this for folks, but last year I kept track of things via this spreadsheet, which I found interesting (and generally reassuring) to update each TtH. Column A is the number of elapsed days since Jan 5, column B is my TtH days (mine were on Fridays), and column F is the NF loss each TtH. Conditional formatting on that column shows red if the loss was > the expected average. Throwing it out there in case anyone finds it useful to adapt. Good luck all!
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Neat! I’ll adapt it to mine!
Do we know what the Whitsun date this year will be? I looked at historical Whitsuns and the last two have started on second thursday of may, whereas the previous ones started second monday of may?
Noman melt of 48 today (23rd Jan). We’d predict a range between 35 and 69 according to the wiki’s calculation so we’re stillon the low end, though not as much as before.
And I just lost 53, also slightly below average.
I lost 49, which I must assume is also a bit below average, though I haven’t been calculating.
I lost 64, which I think is close to the maximum. 
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TtH visited on January 24th at 02:31 UTC:
Predicted range was 36-70 so it’s precisely on average.
January 24th
You’ve lost 51 x Noman’s Friend (new total 2,709 - The Noman is pristine).
Roughly in the middle.
Yesterday, 23rd of January, I lost 56 NF.
And with this Noman, I broke 100k used on him over the past 10 years; 0 during my first Sackmas being the lowest and 23462.5 with the maximum during 2019-2020 season.
Jan 28, lost 50 (expected range: 44-77). I’m at below average NF loss overall now and should have enough NF left (2628) to make it past the 5/13 TTH in case that’s how late Whitsun starts.
Isn’t it always the second Thursday in May?
I just now did the calculation and with medium loss I can’t expect to get my Noman past the 23rd of May.
Edit: Maximum loss isn’t that much more. My Noman will expire on the 16th with maximum loss from here on out. It helps to check the numbers before panicking…
I think I’m in the exact same boat (15th rather than 16th) with maximum lost. I’m keeping my spare tears on hand until whitsun hits for that reason, but once that’s over shovelling them straight into the goat grind.
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Probably. It was the second thursday in may the last few years, and the second monday in may the 2 years before that, according to the wiki. So it’s probably second thursday in may, so the 14th.
Whitsun’s starting date has always fallen between May 8 and 11 so far. I would guess Monday the 11th. But my TTH is Friday, so it’s no difference to me unless it’s very far off.
My TTH is on wednesdays so it being on monday the 11th instead of thursday the 14th would save me one TTH! Fortunately at this point it doesn’t matter, I should have enough NF for either.