Item conversion rare success chances

According to the Wiki, Exploit your Romantic Notions–>Pen some Neathy love poetry for a Surface audience has a rare success chance of delivering a comprehensive bribe.

Can anyone confirm that they have recently seen this result? I’ve had exactly ZERO rare successes in exactly 100 attempts.

Has anyone attempted to determine the rare success odds from item conversions in general?

According to the big spreadsheet the chance of a rare success on this is just above 1%. So it’s not unthinkable that it wouldn’t occur in 100 attempts.

Rare things are devious and love to elude the ones who desire them the most; it’s entirely possible to be 2 or even 3 times over odds and still not get what you’re hunting for. Not terribly likely, but it’s always a possibility.

Assuming odds don’t stack, you not finding one in 100 tries is roughly as likely, assuming we make our prediction on try 0, as rolling a 6-sided die and not landing a prime number.

Not getting a success in 300 tries is ~4.5%, or a little lower than the odds of rolling a 1 on a D20.

A shortcut to use it on your calculator is (odds that any individual try is a failure [as a fraction of 1])^(number of tries). when plugged into this, it says a roughly .0066 chance of no success on try 500, or, rather, that 1 person in 152 will still be failing on try #500
edited by Grenem on 3/8/2016

Wait, primes on d6 are 2, 3, and 5. So there’s an 50% chance. 0.99^100 is ~37%. Why choose such an odd example when it’s not even a good approximation?

Wait, primes on d6 are 2, 3, and 5. So there’s an 50% chance. 0.99^100 is ~37%. Why choose such an odd example when it’s not even a good approximation?[/quote]

Actually, depending on what decade one went to school in, 1 is a prime number too…which would make the odds of not landing a prime 1/3, which is in fact fairly close.

I do understand statistics, I just had no idea the odds of a rare success were as low as they are. As it stands, it looks like the fidgeting writer is a far more economical source of comprehensive bribes.

Wait, primes on d6 are 2, 3, and 5. So there’s an 50% chance. 0.99^100 is ~37%. Why choose such an odd example when it’s not even a good approximation?[/quote]
Actually, depending on what decade one went to school in, 1 is a prime number too…which would make the odds of not landing a prime 1/3, which is in fact fairly close.

I do understand statistics, I just had no idea the odds of a rare success were as low as they are. As it stands, it looks like the fidgeting writer is a far more economical source of comprehensive bribes.[/quote]
That’s why consulting the giga-spreadsheet is a good idea. That said, my appologies, I have met people who genuinely do not get this, or think the odds of this happening are far lower, but i still moved too quickly to correct you, rather than assuming you just didn’t know how unlikely that outcome was.

Fidgeting Writer is so much more efficient, in the end, that it makes going for Event of the Year almost reasonable. As in 157 Comprehensive Bribes should only take about 15,000 actions.

I’m still considering it.

Fidgeting Writer is so much more efficient, in the end, that it makes going for Event of the Year almost reasonable. As in 157 Comprehensive Bribes should only take about 15,000 actions.

I’m still considering it.[/quote]
It’s really not that expensive to get Event of the Year. I mean… It’s 85% of an overgoat, roughly, if you don’t use the rat gimmick. I’ve only been playing a year and already have enough money to buy two through total liquidation, too.

Oh, I know it’s not actually an enormous grind. Big, certainly, but not enormous. I’m just tickled by the idea of it being such an efficient way to increase Planning, compared to what you miss out on by not selling them.