Heist rare success odds changed?

Either I have been extremely unlucky of late, or the odds of finding a searing enigma at the offices of Basebourne & Fowlingpiece has been reduced since the new heist was added. Can anyone confirm that they are still experiencing 25% rare successes? My recent experience has been 8%.

I think it’s closer to 10%. I’ve been keeping track for a few weeks and I’ve gotten 33 TLS to 4 Searing Enigmas.

Honestly a 10% chance to get a Searing Engima is much more in keeping with the rest of the game. Besides, you can never have too many Touching Love Stories, both mechanically and narratively.

I’ve gotten a Searing Enigma on two of the last eighteen Heists.

I was never getting 25% in the first place. My records indicate 20% last year, and 20% the year before that.
(a total of 18 enigmas out of 89 successful heists, not counting those when I picked the 7-progress option)

Haven’t plotted this kind of a robbery in a long time, but I’m after 41 and got one SI after my 30th heist.
From the posts I saw there was a speculation that it’s around (probably less) than 10%.

25% sounds far too good in the first place.

10% is still very tempting for me to go Heisting once I start going Shadowy, anyway.

Judging by the community spreadsheet on this, the odds are estimated at ~12.5% after 851 datapoints, which is enough trials that it ought to be more or less correct.

12.5% is low enough that you get frequent runs of bad luck that make it seem like the rare success is entirely gone.