In another thread there were claims that heists can break 1.80 EPA, and I’m trying to confirm that.
Here’s what it takes to go on a heist: (no big rat; see later)
5 actions with Gang of Hoodlums to get 18 CP of casing
3 actions with The Decoy to gain 9 CP of casing (and a bundle worth ~20 pence)
1 action to choose a heist
2 to purchase 2x Inside Information
1 action to start the heist
3 actions with ideal card draws to get 5 Burglar’s Progress
1 action to finish heist
Some amount for reducing suspicion later (let’s ignore for now)
Total: 16 actions. That would require a 28.80 echo reward to be 1.8 EPA. (16 x 1.8 = 28.80)
There are a few optimizations we might be able to do, though. The Big Rat can reduce the number of actions to get our necessary casing by 5, at the cost of 7.20 echos (and being a horrible bastard who murders poor rats).
New requirement: 11 x 1.8 + 7.20 = 27 echo reward needed for 1.8 EPA. Oh dear.
Well how about forgoing inside information? This will increase risk though and even ideal cards will only give 1 burglar’s progress per action (barring a handful of luck checks that occasionally give 2). With no big rat, 5 less actions at the start, 2 more in the actual heist. With a big rat, 3 less actions at the start and 2.40 echoes saved, and 2 more actions in the actual heist
New requirement (big rat used): 10 x 1.8 + 4.8 = 22.8. Well, that one’s possibly reachable, but we’re taking much more risk! We won’t actually get ideal cards all the time.
Regardless let’s look at rewards now:
A Sealed Archive gives 20 echoes on a regular success, 62.5 on a rare. The chance of the rare was nerfed sometime last year, and no one seems to have solid numbers on what the new chance is. I’m going to assume 10%, though it could be lower. This averages to 24.25 echoes.
Mr Baseborn’s Papers gives 27 echoes on a success with no rare success possible, however this will require 2 more actions. Probably not worth it unless the rare success on Sealed Archive is actually 5% or less.
Of note is the Snaffle Documents option from the A Clean Well Lighted Place card. It gives 4.90 echoes at a 50% chance, so a 2.45 EPA action. However, it’s only safe to play if you already are near the end of your heist with no lost cat-like tread, and doesn’t show up all the time. I’m not sure it bumps up average EPA all that significantly, given the large number of overall actions in this grind.
All in all, 1.8 EPA seems dubious since I don’t think the cards will comply often enough and a 10% rare success seems too optimistic. Am I missing anything?
edited by Kaijyuu on 2/23/2017
edited by Kaijyuu on 2/23/2017