Fidgeting Writer [simple math]

Fallen London
1

Hello delicious friends,

I am a new citizen to Neath (only 1.75 months) already preying for the Overgoat. I read many of you guys are interested in the Fidgeting Writer(FW) echo grind but I cannot find a summarised post. So here I did mine.

It says a conclusion is at most as good as its assumption. Since I do not have the resource to test the successful rate. I just used numbers here
i.[/i] Another thing is that you need one extra action to convert a FW item into regular ones. So I assume the total action cost is the same for safe choice and proceeding.

Enough talk :) Here are the results if my math’s correct.
Please feel free to point out anything you think not right and sorry for making the excel formulas unnecessary long :)
i[/i]

[table][tr][td][td]Base value (Value on Success)[td]Extra Cost (Negative value on Failure)[td]Odds of Success[td]Specific step converting value[td]Accumulative values[td]Actions Needed[td]EPA[tr][td]Tale of Terror[td]0.5[td]0[td]0.7[td]1.75[td]1.25[td]1[td]1.25[tr][td]Sense of Déjà Vu[td]2.5[td]0.5[td]0.7[td]3.35[td]1.845[td]2[td]0.9225[tr][td]Glimpse of Something Larger[td]5[td]1[td]0.7[td]8.45[td]3.5355[td]3[td]1.1785[tr][td]Deal with a Devil[td]12.5[td]1[td]0.6[td]14.6[td]4.2558[td]4[td]1.06395[tr][td]Room Number at the Royal Beth[td]25[td]2.5[td]0.5[td]30[td]5.2848[td]5[td]1.05696[tr][td]Last Hope of a Fidgeting Writer[td]62.5[td]2.5[td]0.5[td]73.75[td]6.442425[td]6[td]1.0737375[tr][td]Lens of Black Glass[td]150[td]2.5[td]0.5[td]155[td]6.699675[td]7[td]0.9570964286[tr][td]Coruscating Soul[td]312.5[td][td][td][td][td][td][/table]

2

Please add the cost for valium taken when you fail the final roll three times in a row.
Less jokingly, I have found it to be profitable, but the all or nothing aspect means that you could waste resources for nothing. I run it for as long as I was in a Lovecraftian mood, since the story is superb. I happened to make a lot of echoes, but boy, was it nerve-wracking!

3

It’s definitely profitable, but requires a huge investment to decrease variability, and it’s inferior to many other simpler grinds. I know an_ocelot made a comprehensive spreadsheet on the entire thing, and the final EPA from selling Coruscating Souls worked out to something around 1.57.

It’s definitely a unique experience though, and might be worth it just for that. Hmm, maybe after I get around to getting Paramount Presence, I’ll gather all my tales of terror from side-converting and embark on a massive cycle just for the sake of it.

4

Huh, this is what I did too, following Paramount Presence. Perhaps the maddening grind is… more maddening that we thought?

5

I did this en masse once.

Once.


(It did not go well.)