I’m aiming for two goats right now, and decided to give the Fidgeting Writer a try (since it seems to be the most profitable repeatable grind).
I’m using this spreadsheet as a reference: Case of the fidgeting writer progress - Google Drive
However, the EPA in it assumes that you’ll take a certain amount of actions to get all the items required for the grind. I assume not all the items are best acquired through Unfinished Business grinding and upconverting - if that’s correct, which items have different optimal grinds and what are those grinds?
Also, if anyone has done the math for the amount of items required for a goat, that’d be really helpful, otherwise I can use the spreadsheet to calculate it myself.
edited by Dudebro Pyro on 7/27/2016
Almost everything you’re looking for can be found here [edit: created by An_Ocelot sorry]:
and here:
http://community.failbettergames.com/topic22555-best-way-to-get-figiting-writer-resources.aspx
In terms of the Fidgeting Writer anyway.
As far as the goats are concerned, each will cost 11,712.8 Echos. Each item has different rates of acquisition of course, so simply maximizing for Echos per action will be more useful then listing individual items. This is incomplete, but should get you started.
edited by MrBurnside on 7/27/2016
edited by MrBurnside on 7/27/2016
Ah, amazing resources, just what I was looking for. Thank you very much.
Edit: Actually, I noticed that the spreadsheet you linked mentions "EPA if don’t grind supplies: 1.92", and more importantly: "EPA if do grind supplies: 1.57". Meanwhile, the spreadsheet I mentioned in my original post shows an EPA of over 1.7.
Could anybody clarify which is correct please? 1.57 is outclassed by mutliple other grinds and really not worth the huge hassle of the whole Writer luck carousel. If that’s the real yield then I’m going to stick to the Collection of Curiosities or something like that.
edited by Dudebro Pyro on 7/27/2016
edited by Dudebro Pyro on 7/27/2016
[quote=Dudebro Pyro]Ah, amazing resources, just what I was looking for. Thank you very much.
Edit: Actually, I noticed that the spreadsheet you linked mentions "EPA if don’t grind supplies: 1.92", and more importantly: "EPA if do grind supplies: 1.57". Meanwhile, the spreadsheet I mentioned in my original post shows an EPA of over 1.7.
Could anybody clarify which is correct please? 1.57 is outclassed by mutliple other grinds and really not worth the huge hassle of the whole Writer luck carousel. If that’s the real yield then I’m going to stick to the Collection of Curiosities or something like that.
edited by Dudebro Pyro on 7/27/2016
edited by Dudebro Pyro on 7/27/2016[/quote]
Going over the numbers in your initial post, the data set used had better luck then expected for the last three steps of the grind. As the odds are actually shown in the app (I’m told), this is probably where the main difference came from, since it’s about 23% difference in the end.
That said, the spreadsheet you posted also didn’t have sources for the ingredients so that is another potential issue. An_Ocelot’s spreadsheet (the one in my post that I carelessly forgot to cite) has all grinds calculated on a post-everything, no-fate basis. The "Best way" thread lists some alternatives, although it’s not comprehensive.
edited by MrBurnside on 7/27/2016
Dudebro Pyro, yeah, it’s not vastly better as it was initially thought to be, but if you’d doing long-term grinds you might like it as a change of pace, or if you need specific items it may be useful.
Glad you found the spreadsheet helpful!
Doing War of Assassins (for collections) and Affair of the Box (for candles + plaques, while you wait to turn in collections) rivals if not outshines the Fidgeting Writer if you have to take the time to get all the supplies. If you’ve got them already, Fidgeting Writer is one of the best grinds (though perhaps not THE best).
Fidgeting Writer does, however, seem a terrific grind for a non-POSI Seeker. It’s Seeking in miniature - throw resources at a problems! Pray! Enjoy the delicious text!
I’m going to make a point of grinding out at least seven Enigmas this way, just because.
I did a lot of grinding in Polythreme following this guide.
http://community.failbettergames.com/topic1100-making-money-in-polythreme.aspx
Built up a lot of Stolen Kisses and Romantic Notions which accidentally were very useful writing lots of stories for The Election.
I’m pretty sure the profitability of various grinds goes something like this:
Fidgeting Writer without items on hand < Affair of the Box < Spirifing (Fate-locked, needs Soul Trade) < Collections of Curiosities <<< Gallery of Serpents (repeated Fate cost)
Strictly speaking, the most profitable grind is buying Ray-Drenched Cinders for 50 Fate each, but that’s silly. The most Fate-efficient grind of those with a recurring Fate cost is the Gallery of Serpents. The most Fate-efficient grind outright is grinding souls through Unfinished Business and selling them through the Soul Trade content. That last one’s what I do alongside the occasional Collection of Curiosities. (Plus it’s an uncapped Heartless source and doesn’t lower other quirks!)
One thing to note for grinding Collections of Curiosities: the absolute best way uses Wilmot’s End for DT, as there’s a rare success increasing profit by 1 PPA.
[quote=squiggle]I did a lot of grinding in Polythreme following this guide.
http://community.failbettergames.com/topic1100-making-money-in-polythreme.aspx
Built up a lot of Stolen Kisses and Romantic Notions which accidentally were very useful writing lots of stories for The Election.[/quote]
I’m pretty sure that grind was nerfed at some point. What was your EPA like?
I don’t remember Polythreme being nerfed. Hunter’s Keep, yes, but not Polythreme.
Polythreme still works the same. It hasn’t been nerfed. I didn’t keep track of my EPA, but the guide is accurate. I have a 5 card deck hand so I always get 1 of the 3 cards I need.
I sometimes play more aggressively and use The Ruin card even when behind. When you win, you can build up tolerances to absorb more losses through the cycle which means not needing to throw away cards and reaching the 2.17 EPA ideal. But it also means sometimes losing and getting a lesser reward. I should have tracked this, but I didn’t.
edited by squiggle on 7/28/2016
Ah fascinating, looks like Polythreme is probably the best grind out there.
Going there as soon as I get a ship. Which is not soon, because damn, Mr. Apples is good.
Oh, just venting, but I hate the Fidgeting Writer. I spent 300 Tales of Terrors and only got 3 Coruscating Souls. That seems to put me well below everything on that spreadsheet.
The variance is a bit higher than some might like. You’d expect ~7.5 souls, and got 3; that’s roughly 2 standard deviations away from normal, by my very quick and probably inaccurate estimate. Unusual, but far from unheard of.
What’s even worse is my certifiable scraps record. Just as I was approaching 3200, I got on a losing streak for certifying double armfuls for about 3 months. I was hitting around 20% success. Then it finally went back to about 50%. But all those losses…
Do you guys use automated tools to track numbers of attempts and compute EPAs and such? I’m usually too lazy unless I notice really good or bad luck streaks.
I’m not one of the people who keeps track of real world data (err, real FL data). If I care enough to know something’s EPA, I’ll write up a quick python script to do ~100,000 trials for me. This of course makes the assumption that the percentage chances I’m using are actually accurate, which I rarely verify.