CHRISTMAS IN THE NEATH: A GUIDE

Fallen London
41

I have no idea either – it’s available for Fate if you sell your soul, but only at Hallowmas, not all year round.

So, about expedition data – I only have scraps of notes from myself and friends about highest and lowest values, so I could do the survey and provide a couple data-points if it’s helpful, but it might throw off the overall statistical curve. Still, it seems like bundles and treasures follow a straight-line random formula so maybe just knowing the ranges is all you really need. That’s what I based my numbers on: assumptions about low/high values and how the Storynexus Rich Effect was set up. If it’s not actually a straight line, it’s doing a very good impression of one!

[quote=Cecil ]The Temple of Uttermost Wind’s Unpredictable Treasure goes down to a value of at least 54, which means there’s either a 7% or 9% chance of ‘A wooden mask?’ + others, and twice that for Airag (depending on whether the UT value goes all the way down to 1 or not)

The Gallery of Serpents has equal chances of Airag and Tears, both 25% each.[/quote]

I have lowest observed Uttermost Wind value as 41, which means a 9.5% chance of wooden mask. (Was rounding up instead of being precise, sorry.)

Airag values seem to go from 120-139 (avaiable even in non-fate expeditions, right) and 160-179. Gallery lowest value I’ve got as 161, which fits a hypothesis that someone set these to be [die roll]+[fixed value] and fixed value was a round number (in this case [d:80]+160, to use storynexus syntax). But 160 is available for non-fate-locked too, and from data on non-fate expeditions seems to be the very tip of &quota carefully wrapped container.&quot The ranges for rewards seem to start at round numbers, but the die rolls + round numbers make the setting of &quotUncovering an Unpredictable Treasure&quot (and bundles too) start at 41, 161, etc. It throws data off in funny ways!

Airag (161-179) is thus slightly less likely in Serpent than the other rewards, and Tears, which I got at 220, runs from 220-240 so it’s slightly more common. The latter, at least, fits the arc of your data!

42

Hi Cecil, I’m aware there’re a few &quottactical issues&quot I haven’t covered yet. The thing is, I don’t want to clutter everything into the OP - at some point people’s eyes are just going to glaze over and they won’t remember anything they read! What I might do is: write another post for this, then link to it from the OP (just like I did for the 12 Days of Sacks, basically).

[quote=Cecil ]
What’s the fate thing? For the life of me, I can’t recall.[/quote]

Someone told me you get a DS if you invite the Princess to your Salon - is that wrong?

Millions! If you click on the smiley symbol when writing a post, you’ll see just five - but when you click into the space below them… :shocked:

43

[quote=Grenem]I’m not aware of the missing woman option in the nadir- educate me, please, since google cannot find it either. If you mean woods in winter, that doesn’t give melancholy for me.
[/quote]

My fault - I use them both for the +1 cp drama, so I mixed them up for everything else too.

44

What’s the highest you’ve gotten? That would be swaying things to get a higher chance. Also. Question, do you think I should rearrange the spreadsheet to display chance based upon range as opposed to chance based upon results?

Interesting that your lowest value is also for ‘A wooden mask?’, I wonder if that’s the lowest option? I need to do Uttermost Wind like, 4 times more or something, for all the text. Maybe I’ll get lucky and get something lower (heh, getting a material reward with less value and I’d consider myself lucky).

Huh! The lowest I’ve gotten from Serpents is also 161, I’d however come to the conclusion that Serpents would fit the pattern of the Thieves’ Cache and Deep Blue Heaven, where the range goes from 1-(x10) and that x10 would apply to the lower curve as well. I hadn’t even considered the possibility that Fate and non-Fate Unpredictable Treasure ranges would be mutually exclusive. I guess we’ll have to do A Gallery of Serpents about 200 times or so to try and guarantee getting all the Unpredictable Treasure values!

Ah, okay. I wasn’t sure you were aware.

Ah, yeah, that’s wrong.

BRILLIANT. (Thank you)
:king2:

45

Do I remember correctly that changes to &quotPutting the Pieces Together: The Taste of Lacre&quot were never displayed like other qualities (&quotyour ToL has increased to 3&quot)? Instead, you only ever saw the flavour text of your current status (&quotWhy does the lacre accumulate at Christmas?&quot in this case), making it useful to keep ToL as the displayed Scrapbook quality on your Profile during Sackmas…

46

I think so, yes.

47

I think so, yes.[/quote]
I can confirm this.
:bong::bong::bong::bong::bong:
(Some of these emotes are really really inappropriate)

48

I really appreciate your hard work! As a newish citizen to Fallen London some of the guides have been VERY helpful. I do have a question however: On the wiki it looks as though a player can loop back to Day 2 semi-perpetually (by using the &quotBest Regards&quot option). Is this a linking error? If not it would allow anyone with a Consonant Violin to boost Connection: Masters and ToL stratospherically.

Edit: If no one knows, then I’ll be happy to try it with an alt and post the results.
edited by MrBurnside on 11/11/2015

49

Just realized something… what is the benefit of having a high ToL before Mr Sacks comes? When the wicket opens, Noman is pretty cheap, right? Is there some nuanced facet of a NiteBrite strategy I’m not grasping?

For Uttermost Wind? 240. That one seems to have a huge range.

Yeah that would have been helpful to understand what I was looking at, although I figured it out :)

But it doesn’t start at 1 as in &quotAn instrument&quot right – you only ever get four different rewards from Serpents, so the starting value has to be higher. In this case, x = 24, the highest value anyone’s seen, but instead of 1 it’s 161. The whole line’s just shifted up by 160.

Well, Uttermost Wind isn’t mutually exclusive since it goes down to 41, but Serpents… all of your data is for the four rewards above the non-Fate range! And you were saying there was a 25% chance of each reward (there are only four rewards) so I assume you figured there were only four rewards?

TL;DR data is great, a falsifiable hypothesis based on data & some guessing is even better! My educated guess is that the ranges are Thieves Cache: [d80], Shrine of Deep Blue Heaven: [d160], Temple of Uttermost Wind: [d200]+40, Serpents’ Gallery: [d80]+160

50

[quote=MrBurnside]I really appreciate your hard work! As a newish citizen to Fallen London some of the guides have been VERY helpful. I do have a question however: On the wiki it looks as though a player can loop back to Day 2 semi-perpetually (by using the &quotBest Regards&quot option). Is this a linking error? If not it would allow anyone with a Consonant Violin to boost Connection: Masters and ToL stratospherically.

Edit: If no one knows, then I’ll be happy to try it with an alt and post the results.
edited by MrBurnside on 11/11/2015[/quote]
I’d bet all 7 of my tears of the bazaar that it’s a linking error.

51

I’d bet all 7 of my tears of the bazaar that it’s a linking error.[/quote]
Yes, that should be a linking error… but it would be a neat little feature!

The cheapest Noman to buy is not exactly the cheapest Noman to keep alive… ;)
Also, the guide is mostly about Lodgings, not Nomen. But there are other ways to play it, all depending on what items you have/which lodgings you want. If you look at the OP, I’ve put in a note about tactics, and…

That’s still coming, just not during the week, probably.

52

If you just want the text and on-death rewards, buying the cheapest one is best. it’ll probably still cost you more that a little, but that shouldn’t be a problem. if you want it to last until feburary… well, lets just say those few days do make a difference, and a big one.

53

Well, this thread is getting confusing…

I still don’t know how hard or easy will it be to get to 9 ToL for the lodging or what im really supposed to do :(.

54

If you have scholar of the correspondence 10, you will have no problem reaching nine taste. This is the least complicated way to get what you want:

  1. Before using Mr sacks cards, gather 4 pails of snow either from the weekly snowfall or by buying from the urchins (you will probably get a free one from the advent calendar).

  2. Stare at a bucket with a monocle (reach taste 3). Twice, put a soul in the bucket (taste 5). Stare at your last bucket (taste 8).

  3. Using the wiki as a guide, take one of the options which raises taste on the Mr sacks cards (play a consonant violin, give a magnificent diamond - I can’t recall the others off the top of my head, but the wiki has them). This will take you to taste 9.
    edited by Màiread on 11/11/2015
    edited by Màiread on 11/11/2015

55

If you just want the text and on-death rewards, buying the cheapest one is best. it’ll probably still cost you more that a little, but that shouldn’t be a problem. if you want it to last until feburary… well, lets just say those few days do make a difference, and a big one.[/quote]

Time the healer hits like a truck taking around 23 ptpt equivalent per week to begin with (and it slowly gets worse), and that’s bad if you are trying to keep a noman alive until February. Any initial cost savings are just totally and crushingly lost every one additional time the healer you have to survive so it’s best to wait as long as possible before creating the noman in this scenario.
edited by NiteBrite on 11/11/2015

56

OK, I think I get it now…

Getting ToL up to 8 will cost 4 pails if you do it before the Wicket opens, but only 3 pails after the Wicket opens, using Cecil’s method where you drop a level via “search the shore” or “take the air.” However, if you’re only saving up enough for an expensive Noman at the end, you don’t really need to repeat that process more than once, and the most you’d save is one bucket. Or is there another reason why you’d want a high ToL before the Wicket opens, as opposed to waiting to raise ToL to 8 until after the Wicket opens when it’s a pail cheaper?

57

Yes, if you have no monocle and/or low SotC, but still want an expensive lodging.
edited by Rupho Schartenhauer on 11/11/2015

58

Yeah, the higher you get your ToL before Mr Sacks comes, the more ToL you get by the end of Mr Sacks and the less pails (if any!) you have to spend reaching ToL 15 for the Noman (if you’re like me and going for the tattoo).

EDIT: Ah, I see this already got responded to. I wrote this response last night and wanted to proof read in the morning.

What was I thinking asking this question. I already knew that it went up to 240.

Yeah that would have been helpful to understand what I was looking at, although I figured it out :)[/quote]
I shall do this tomorrow at some point then! To be fair, I had it set up as such before I knew it was straight-line.

Again, what was I thinking. Of course the lowest value would be 161, otherwise you’d be dealing with one range bigger than the others. AHHHH. I just re-read your previous post. I see what I was missing, yeah, you’re right, very much so. Huh, 24% vs 26%. I also somehow missed the storynexus syntax bit. I shall use those then when I come to referencing this in the future. The 24/26 difference will also effect the epa for the better…

And yes, I have figured out that there’s only the four rewards. Although, I’m still holding out on the hope that there’s an Unpredictable Treasure value that’s there’s only a 1/80 (around) chance of. However slim that possibility might be by now.
edited by Cecil on 11/11/2015

59

The route I suggested was for simplicity rather than maximum efficiency; using the Wicket options will save you pails, which is important if you’re after several lodgings or the noman, but raising your taste to 9 once is doable without any shennanigans so I went for the easiest path. However, the point of raising your taste with buckets before using the Mr Sacks cards is that the boost from the cards is uncapped, whereas with buckets you can only get as high as 8 without using tears of the bazaar or a dreadful surmise. So if you use your Sacks cards before reaching 8 and you don’t have either of those items, you’re locked out of reaching the 9 taste you need.

60

If you are saying you want to wait to get to 8 until the wicket opens, and -then- run the 12 days of Mr Sacks to get the boosted ptpt it can’t be done.

The wicket only opens -after- you complete the 12 days of Mr. Sacks. So by definition by the time the wicket is open, you have already missed out on the reason to get to 8 (or 11) early which is the uncapped ptpt from Mr sacks. Imagine using tears/pails to 10 and then getting to 15 from the 12 days of Mr sacks. That saves you from needing a dreadful surmise and 5 pails.

If you are paying last available purchase day prices for the noman you have to get to 15 ptpt, and you really want to use the 12 days to get all the way to 15 if at all possible, because otherwise its a bad time trying to get there using even more pails and the dreadful surmise skill challenges.

EDIT: This is off on a tangent, but I hope the tattoo limit increases to 3 this year. I want to get a heptagoat tattoo after all. But if it is still limited to 2 do you know if you can reset one tattoo instead of both? Or do you lose having 2 tattoos if you reset? I’d hate to lose my noman tattoo to get the heptagoat instead.
edited by NiteBrite on 11/11/2015