# Are Second Chances worth using?

From my (admittedly limited) experiences, second chances usually end one of two ways… I fail both checks so get no where… or I succeed on the first check and lose the second chance anyway… rarely does the second chance seem to ACTUALLY work as intended…

So I have been wondering if the math works in my favor, or against me… has anyone run any stats on this?

Some of the higher level challenges have stiff penalties, so it lets you try multiple times with only one punishment for failure.

If your chance of success without a second chance is P, then your chance of success with a second chance is 1 - (1-P)*(1-P). So, for example, if you have a 90% chance of success then a second chance will increase it to a 99% chance of success, and if you have a 50% chance of success the second chance will increase it to a 75% chance of success. If you have spare second chances, you might as well use them.[li][/li]
edited by Guy Scrum on 11/21/2015

Nerds out on Guy Scrum’s probabilities. Also, if you fail the first check you can bail out of the attempt without suffering the consequences of failing the test altogether (i.e., stat or gear loss).

You probably already know this, but note that you can use them to boost stats too, though. That can be very useful! I guess it’s a question of which one is more useful in the long run. And there are other assorted uses too, of course, which I won’t go into detail about, e.g. Nadir stuff.
edited by Sestina Valdis on 11/21/2015

[quote=Guy Scrum]If your chance of success without a second chance is P, then your chance of success with a second chance is 1 - (1-P)*(1-P). So, for example, if you have a 90% chance of success then a second chance will increase it to a 99% chance of success, and if you have a 50% chance of success the second chance will increase it to a 75% chance of success. If you have spare second chances, you might as well use them.[li][/li]
edited by Guy Scrum on 11/21/2015[/quote]

Nice… thanks… it’s just that I usually don’t have EXTRA second chances… they are still reasonably rare for me (except the &quotchasing a lady’s hat&quot mini-grind a few days ago for Confident Smiles)… so I was wondering if it made more sense to save them for stat increases…

Now I have something more to work with, numbers-wise… so I can get a better feel for it.

Thanks again!

I use them all the time, for a variety of purposes, but I also devote quite a few actions every day to social pursuits. If your character prefers to be mostly solitary, then the SCs are rarer, and thus more valuable just for that. I’d use them when a challenge is important to advance a story, and not promiscuously in any event. Most of the challenges at the lower levels don’t carry any associated penalty, so using SCs on them would seem to be frivolous, unless you want to succeed because it is a rare opportunity that you really want.

– Mal
edited by malthaussen on 11/21/2015

Second chances also make wonderful gifts.