Airs Mechanics

I began preparations for my expedition to the tomb of seven, but since my watchful was a bit low, I decided to use the A Sign? trick to get a head start on my rivals. Approximately 250 airs of the forgotten quarter changes later, I STILL have not seen the value hit 96+.

Running the numbers on probability, I thought it wise to confirm I am not making any incorrect assumptions before continuing wasting actions.

Are all the airs values weighted evenly? Will anything cause it to cap out below 100? Is hell’s coursers the seeking curios event tied to that range? Am I just having the worst run of luck ever?

Thanks in advance for the assistance,

I think I heard that it is now impossible to get the value for A Sign? seeking curios in the Forgotten Quarter.

My tip for expeditions when your watchful is low is to get 100 supplies; stock up on second chances; use the buccaneering option and perhaps not on a fail. You do end up using a lot of second chances and supplies but with a bit of luck you won’t fail the entire expedition

edited by reveurciel on 5/29/2015

Hmm, that would be depressing given my time investment, but at this point a much more likely explanation. Is it a reasonable strategy to just gather the supplies to confront my rivals, and then proceeding cautiously until that becomes necessary? If that accomplishes the objective as well, it seems to me like it would be cheaper.

Edit: For reference, I currently have 59 supplies, and 75+18 watchful. What odds would you give me?
edited by ArtificerProdigy on 5/29/2015

I can’t give you odds as expeditions are so random but if I remember correctly Tomb of Seven is a 30 supply expedition. It looks like you are watchful enough to guarantee being cautious so all you have to worry about are the rivals and you would have to be really unlucky to get rivals progress each time. Remember you also have to be lucky with the Airs, and have the other stuff they want, to be able to hinder two of them Greyfields 1879 for Orthos and Brilliant Souls for Virginia . So it looks like you should be able to succeed with what you have though a few more supplies might be worthwhile just in case you are really unlucky and do get rivals progress every time.

Alright, thank you very much for the advice, it is most appreciated. Ah well, at least I got 5k secrets for my troubles, haha. Hopefully I can get on with my expeditions now. =)

All those secrets can become expedition supplies :)
Good luck