After a few thefts of particular characters (using leftover casing from something else), I decided to take a more indepth view of thefts vs nostalgia grinding, and which one would be more efficient. (particularly with my capabilities)
I already typed this out, but the page didn’t save it. Ah well.
Honey first, since it’s straightforward. With my persuasive, I cannot fail the “doing the decent thing.” We’ll ignore the rare success, and just say it’s 50 drops per action, for the sake of simplicity. Short version: 30 actions grinding drops, + 3 bulk conversions of drops into romantic notions, + 2 small conversions of RM into visions of the surface, +2 converting these into the permits itself = 37 actions for 2 bazaar permits, and random items that are profit. That would be 18.5 actions for one permit. Note that it would become more efficient if you were grinding enough to be able to use the bulk RM into VotS option.
For thefts, we’ll ignore the other casing, and just focus on the amount of casing reduced by performing the theft itself. The wiki states it is 32 on success, and 51 on failure. My shadowy is terrible for where I am in the game, and I do not have a gang of hoodlums. But I’ll do the math for the hoodlums too, while I’m at it. Let’s start with it, in fact, to get it out of the way. Assuming success, it gives 18 cp of casing for 5 actions. If you succeeded the theft, you only have to do 2 using your GoH (lost 32cp, gained 36). If you failed the theft, you need to use the GoH 3 times (lost 51 cp, gained 54.) Plus the action for the actual theft, that means the GoH is 11 actions per permit on theft success, and 16 on failure. Unfortunately, this also assumes you can ensure GoH succeeds, which, well.
For non GoH options, there’s two main options: well-planned villainy, and formulate a plan (or "the decoy, but not much difference). Interestingly, WPV and formulate have the same ratio of actions to casing (1 to 3), the biggest difference being the number of actions (5 and 3 respectively), and that WPV cannot fail (but also doesn’t give any cp for a stat.) Using WPV as much as possible (in order to have less of a chance to fail), success on a theft means you need to regain 32 cp. 1 WPV and 2 formulate(don’t abbreviate that, just saying.) gives 33 cp for 11 actions. Failure on the theft means you need 51 cp, and 3 WPV and 1 formulate gives 54 cp for 18 actions. Plus the theft itself means 12 or 19 actions. However, there is absolutely no other profit in thefts, only the permit.
So, disregarding the GoH thefts, we have the nostalgia grind for 18.5 actions per permit (plus profit items), or thefts for either 12 or 19 actions per permit, with a 50% for either number.
For me, I’ll be continuing my grind for nostalgia, both for the certainty it has, and the additional profits. But I can certainly see how thefts would be incredibly nice for someone who has a much higher shadowy stat than mine, and certainly someone who has a better shadowy AND a gang of hoodlums.
My giant wall of text is over, hope you enjoyed. Did I miss anything or mess up something? If so, let me know, please.