And what good is an Election for, if not to test the strength and validity of our polls?
One year ago, our unofficial survey was conducted with 330 responses, with insights and analysis released in the week following the Election. This year, it’s been refined with a more user-friendly layout, improved questions, and a form more pleasing to the eye. The survey has also been expanded with optional questions for roleplayers making decisions in-character.
This survey should take around 2-5 minutes to complete. If you’re still undecided, feel free to wait until you’re committed to your cause - the second week brings new revelations and twists. If you have multiple characters, you’re welcome to fill out one for each. We aim for accuracy, but remember that this survey is not necessarily a representative sample of the Fallen London population: we won’t know the victor until the end.
This survey is anonymous, but you and you alone can change your answers if you change your mind before the end. Save the link after you submit your survey labeled "Edit your response" and you can use that to update your form at any time.
For those interested in seeing preliminary results as the week goes along, you can view those here.
For determining how representative this sample is (currently at a size of 303), there are a few points for and against its reliability worth noting:
FOR
[ul][li]Huffam’s poll results line up with in-game descriptions. The first three polls are all led by Virginia, followed by Plenty, and lastly with Shoshana. Importantly, Huffam’s polls are very poor predictors of Shoshana’s performance.
[/li][li]Among the (currently) 138 reported participants in Election 1895, the results match Failbetter’s, with a slight overrepresentation of Dauntless supporters (23% vs 21%) that lowers the respective shares of both Implacable (32% vs 33%) and Feducci (44% vs 45%).
[/li][/ul] AGAINST
[ul][li]Self-reported Tier 3 professions make up nearly 2/3 of the sample, and only 18.2% reported as having no Notability, indicating that the survey consists primarily of Persons of Some Importance, thereby not accurately reflecting the opinions of newer players with less experience with these candidates.
[/li][li]Support for the Contrarian is overrepresented in Election 1896 (61% vs 48%).[/li][/ul]
Essentially, determining to what extent the survey represents the population is only something that we can do in hindsight with Failbetter’s officially released statistics; there is both reason to be optimistic and pessimistic about your preferred candidate.
(And this is an obligatory bump for those who haven’t yet filled out the survey)
I’m keen to see what patterns emerge in terms of people’s preferred candidate from year to year. I mean, there must be people who out there who supported both the Bishop and Virginia, I suppose, but were there many? edited by Diptych on 7/26/2019
Azothi - excellent analysis! - Further, as to ""For determining how representative this sample is (currently at a size of 303)…"" - That is what ratio to the whole citizenry? - What numbers might one tally the ‘active’ population of Neathly London - I’m assuming there might be many solo-play or epic play members that eshew the social / electoral scene - There are such hidden depths, and braided layers to this fractal kaleidescopic narrative-causal gameworld / milleau - that it’s vastness is never truly appearant until apotheosis levels of play… . . But, not to boggle and blather - How does the polling scale, overall? ((Definitely think your clarification might be appended to the magnificent google-docs version of the poll result pie-charts)) . . .
-:- Drazzle Psmyth -:-
-:- VOTE SHOSHANA - FOR FUTURE AND FORTUNE !! -:-
. edited by Doctor_Static on 7/26/2019
[quote=Doctor_Static]- Azothi - excellent analysis! - Further, as to ""For determining how representative this sample is (currently at a size of 303)…"" - That is what ratio to the whole citizenry? - What numbers might one tally the ‘active’ population of Neathly London - I’m assuming there might be many solo-play or epic play members that eshew the social / electoral scene - There are such hidden depths, and braided layers to this fractal kaleidescopic narrative-causal gameworld / milleau - that it’s vastness is never truly appearant until apotheosis levels of play… . . But, not to boggle and blather - How does the polling scale, overall? [/quote]Only Failbetter knows.
Azothi, do you suppose you could compile the results by first dividing respondents by chosen candidate, then adding together the notability and election career progress of all the respondents in each candidate group respectively, and finally calculating percentages of the total number of “support points” for each candidate, so we could compare their actual relative support?
[quote=Tsar Koschei]Azothi, do you suppose you could compile the results by first dividing respondents by chosen candidate, then adding together the notability and election career progress of all the respondents in each candidate group respectively, and finally calculating percentages of the total number of "support points" for each candidate, so we could compare their actual relative support?[/quote]This is something I plan on doing as part of the analysis once the Election is over, but I already had all the data processing set up, so here’s a sneak peek.
If it looks like there’s not really any change, you’d be right.(Remember, the basic disclaimer that this is not necessarily a representative sample still applies.)
I am a bit startled by the results of the survey in the following regard. Most people choose magnanimous as their most defining quirk - and yet most vote for Virginia or Feducci.
I am by no means implying that you cannot be good-hearted AND vote for them, but… I would love it if some magnanimous gentleperson, who voted in this manner, explained how they combined their support for Feducci, with their inclination towards magnanimity.
Again, I am not being holier-than-thou. I am curious. edited by Jolanda Swan on 7/29/2019
[quote=Jolanda Swan]I am a bit startled by the results of the survey in the following regard. Most people choose magnanimous as their most defining quirk - and yet most vote for Virginia or Feducci.
I am by no means implying that you cannot be good-hearted AND vote for them, but… I would love it if some magnanimous gentleperson, who voted in this manner, explained how they combined their support for Feducci, with their inclination towards magnanimity.
Again, I am not being holier-than-thou. I am curious. edited by Jolanda Swan on 7/29/2019[/quote]For fun, I decided to look into the numbers a bit. A total of 23 responses reported listing "Magnanimous" as one of their character’s defining quirks while also reporting voting for Feducci; this is just over one third of the total reported support for Feducci, which surprised me as well, and I too would like someone to answer this question.
(As a Dauntless campaigner back in 1895, though, I’ve stated that my reasons for choosing Dauntless then are the same for choosing Virginia now; and I’m happy to note that despite our fewer numbers, former Dauntless supporters report the highest levels of magnanimity of any 1895 candidate.)
