I know that when you go to reduce your nightmares, the odds for Ignoring is “a matter of luck: it could go either way”.
That means the luck chance is approximately 50%. However, I think that they have it listed wrong, because if I use 20 energy on that task, maybe 5 or so will succeed, the rest will all be that I was unlucky. So it cannot be 50%.
A sample size of 20 is very very small and doesn’t prove the percentage at all. If you did it 200 times, and succeeded in 50 of them, then that would be a little bit more convincing. 2000 and 500 even more so.
A sample size of 20 is very very small and doesn’t prove the percentage at all. If you did it 200 times, and succeeded in 50 of them, then that would be a little bit more convincing. 2000 and 500 even more so.[/quote]
Okay, I was using that as an example. I have probably done it hundreds and hundreds of times (very easily 500 times) and the success rate is very low, compared to what is being said.
Indeed, the manager will more often than not plague those of uneasy mind. Ignoring him is likely the worst possible way of maintaining ones sanity there is in this dreadful city. Indeed, the propensity of this city to induce blood-curdling nightmares in those who look too closely upon it explains why so few learn the deeper secrets of the bazaar.
For those just beginning their investigations into the mysteries of London, Sharing your Nightmares with a Friend and hearing their in return may be the most effective way of settling ones mind.
[quote=Eben]Indeed, the manager will more often than not plague those of uneasy mind. Ignoring him is likely the worst possible way of maintaining ones sanity there is in this dreadful city. Indeed, the propensity of this city to induce blood-curdling nightmares in those who look too closely upon it explains why so few learn the deeper secrets of the bazaar.
For those just beginning their investigations into the mysteries of London, Sharing your Nightmares with a Friend and hearing their in return may be the most effective way of settling ones mind.[/quote]
Thanks haha, but I’m not just starting - I’ve been playing for a few months. Unfortunately, right now I’m only “temporarily” in the Forgotten Quarter, and I don’t have the option to go to my lodgings and share it with a friend. Thank you though.
My very personal very cynical take on these “a matter of luck: it could go either way”. Challenges… it’s maybe like, a 35-40% chance of success, since I have NO luck with them…
And the “It’s a sure thing…or is it?” challenges, I abhor. It’s like a 80% success where I ALWAYS get the 20%.
Gamblers fallacies and Murphy’s law.
Edit: My Grandfather used to say… “I have a fifty-fifty chance of getting it right, but a 90% chance of getting it wrong” … Honestly he wasn’t incorrect about that…
edited by armadaos on 7/6/2012
Considering the cost of getting to the Forgotten Quarter is a mere 5 Echos, you need to leave, decrease your Nightmares, buy a permanent pass and come back to pursue your Watchful interests there. The “Cheery Gentleman” card is untenable and terribly inefficient.
You will want to come and go from that area in the future, so it’s best to buy a street sign sooner rather than later.
Taking some wine at the Carnival can help with Nightmares, if you don’t mind some Scandal.
In my experience the various appraisals of your odds in a luck challenge represent a range. So ‘Could go Either Way’ could mean anywhere from 40% to 60% (though the chance for any particular challenge is presumably set and not actually variable).
I have little evidence to back this up, merely how it seems to me.