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A matter of luck
Silentarius
Posts: 13
1/17/2015
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The odds for and against a particular action are often described as "A matter of luck: it could go either way". Now, as far as I am concerned, that "either way" confirms unambiguously that the odds are 50:50. However, as I approach a slightly higher level of the game (my two principal qualities stand at 73 and 40 respectively), I have run into a statistically highly improbable run of bad luck, with "A matter of luck" resulting in "you were unlucky this time" about 30 or so times on the trot; the fact that these were nearly all critical rolls, resulting in sending my nightmares level over the edge twice so far, is making me wonder whether in fact the odds are not 50:50 after all...
Can anybody comment on this matter?
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An Individual
Posts: 589
1/18/2015
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Sara Hysaro wrote:
I tend to wait a couple seconds after getting a fail. Pure superstition, but at least it makes me feel a little more in control.
I tend to do this as well. It feels like I frequently run into strings of probability defying successes and failures when performing the same action multiple times in rapid succession. I also seem to run into opportunity cards in chunks. I'll go a week without seeing a card at all and then for a few days they're everywhere and then disappear again. If it happened occasionally that would be one thing but it seems to happen all the time.
However, the unfortunate truth is that the mind is designed to recognized rhythms and patterns. Spend too much time with it pointed at an inherently random system and eventually it goes a bit nuts.
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lady ciel
Posts: 2548
1/17/2015
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Maybe here - http://community.failbettergames.com/topic4175-luck-challenges-and-deciphering-them.aspx? or the wiki http://fallenlondon.wikia.com/wiki/Category:Luck
Both have links to the spreadsheet where some people have been entering the results.
Edit - but the RNG is notoriously fickle and people do have unlucky streaks which I think are more noticeable or at least mentioned more often than lucky streaks.
edited by reveurciel on 1/17/2015
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ciel
Sorry RL means I am not a very active player at the moment. No social actions unless you are prepared to wait and definitely no sparring or other mult-action things.
No Calling Cards or boxed cats please. Will take dupes on the affluent photographers. Other social invitations welcome. Parabolan Kittens usually available, send me an in-game social action saying you want one and I will get one to you as soon as possible.
storynexus name - reveurciel
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