dharthoorn
Posts: 105
8/9/2014
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POST YOUR EVIDENCE HERE!!
Statistical probability in the Neath seems to work according to the same surface-world principles we were once so accustomed to. That is, until chance pokes its head in the lower 90's. I seem to fail a statistically implausible amount of times when "chance" to succeed hits 90-96%.
For example, I have failed no less than 6 (SIX!) times in a row during a seduction storylet Persuasive test in which the succeed rate was supposed to be 94%. My reaction was as follows;
1st fail: Oh Well.
2nd fail: Raised an eyebrow
3rd fail: Chuckled and shook my head
4th fail: Checked my turns candle and concluded this IS actually the 4th time I failed a 94% succeed rate challenge.
5th fail: Facial expression spasms in utter disbelief whilst making yelps of bewildered astonishment
6th fail: Surprise has now been replaced by pure, undiluted rage. Words I swore to never speak in front of my kids and I frankly forgot I even knew, pass my lips in a deluge of profanity. My wife stares at me with tears in her eyes while my 6 year old son weeps uncontrollably, his sobbing face buried in her skirt.
I am no genius in calculus but doesn't failing a 94% challenge 6 times in succession equate to (.06*.06*.06*.06*.06*.06)*100= 0.0000046656% chance of that happening? Is that right or is that calculated in a totally different way?
And just now, I have failed a 92% challenge reading poetry to the Curate and his sister 4 times in a row and 6 times over 10 turns.
It is becoming clear to me there is enough circumstantial evidence to suggest there is indeed a 16th Master called Mr. Chance who derives some sort of depraved pleasure from lulling the residents of the Neath into a false sense of security when the odds start to hit the low- and mid-90's.
My guess is that the Master uses a kind of quantum reality flux field trapped into a infinite cycle of self-creation and destruction which ruptures all conventional boundaries of probability and derived statistics. Not entirely unlike a black hole, but instead of using mass as a medium it rather uses the improbability of its own existence to power itself. In fact, I have once read that improbability itself may indeed even harnessed as a stardrive as long as the actual design defies all probability of functioning in the first place.
Does anyone else have similar tales of the Bermuda Triangle of Chance which resides in the shady 90-96's, or is Mr. Chance just picking on me?
edited by dharthoorn on 8/9/2014
edited by dharthoorn on 8/9/2014
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Charles Chobblestone
This struggling writer exudes a potent and ominous waft of ferrety musk.
Marinus Rumbotty
A man of few words and a raging temper. Nonetheless, a kinder-souled Zailer is hard to find.
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dharthoorn
Posts: 105
8/9/2014
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Here's a discussion of the RNG being rigged from six months ago. And here's one from six months before that. Long story short: the RNG is a completely standard model; any random system is going to produce odd patterns; people are always going to vehemently insist that particularly evil tricks have been programmed into it to catch them out.
Oh my GOD. It's even worse than I expected. Mr. Chance has gotten its improbability tendrils into Microsoft's System.Random function as well.
That does indeed explain a lot. I personally recommend moving to a more secure, and more encrypted form of RNG function like for instance System.Security.Cryptography.RandomNumberGenerator or perhaps have a custom engine developed like the NSA and CIA have done. Pehaps it's already too late and we're all DOOMED.
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Charles Chobblestone
This struggling writer exudes a potent and ominous waft of ferrety musk.
Marinus Rumbotty
A man of few words and a raging temper. Nonetheless, a kinder-souled Zailer is hard to find.
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Seurat
Posts: 23
8/10/2014
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Creating a Master? My my.
edited by Seurat on 6/9/2016
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Find me in London here.
I have no stipulations for contact. Find me -- I see you already.
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Trodgmey
Posts: 164
8/15/2014
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Seurat wrote:
Creating a Master is something most know not to play with. Careful, good sir, as the actual Masters may make words of you.
FTFY, Sir.
edited by Trodgmey on 8/15/2014
edited by Trodgmey on 8/15/2014
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Trodgmey -- an otherwise pleasant chap with a peculiar obsession with the first four cities.
http://www.fallenlondon.com/Profile/Trodgmey
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LordBorsti
Posts: 1
8/17/2014
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Lady Sapho Byron wrote:
It's my impression, which is not based on any hard data, that sometimes if a single action is performed repeatedly in rapid succession the result does not vary for 5 or 6 attempts (the RNG does not reset?).
I have noticed the same.
If you repeat a storylet very fast via the "Try again" button the RNG sometimes seems stuck to one "result". Playing another storylet or using the "Onwards" button solves this "problem".
I also noticed something similar with the card deck. If you flip through the cards using the discard button and drawing new ones very quickly you have a pretty high chance to draw the same cards again and again. I now alternate between drawing cards und playing storylets which in my view gives me more "random" results.
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Lord Vintage - A respectable and scandalous Gentleman
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WormApotheote
Posts: 725
8/9/2014
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The odds of failing a specific six times in a row are quite low, but if you're doing a long string of the same action the odds of a long string of failures popping up are fairly high. (And it's worth noting five failures in a row would probably stand out to you just as much, for example, or if it had come several actions later or earlier.)
In fact if this sort of thing didn't happen occasionally it'd be a sign that something screwy is happening with the random number generator. (which some games will rig them to not do, since people always complain when it happens.)
edited by WormApotheote on 8/9/2014
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No, I don't pull the Eater of Names.
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Diptych
Administrator
Posts: 3493
8/9/2014
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Here's a discussion of the RNG being rigged from six months ago. And here's one from six months before that. Long story short: the RNG is a completely standard model; any random system is going to produce odd patterns; people are always going to vehemently insist that particularly evil tricks have been programmed into it to catch them out.
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Sir Frederick, the Libertarian Esotericist. Lord Hubris, the Bloody Baron.
Juniper Brown, the Ill-Fated Orphan. Esther Ellis-Hall, the Fashionable Fabian.
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