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An in-depth look at money options Messages in this topic - RSS

Kiptoo
Kiptoo
Posts: 1282

6/19/2013
Hmm... It's not quite as good as I thought, diamonds are now only worth 12p compared to the old 14p...

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Corran
Corran
Posts: 402

12/6/2013
Thought this warranted a new post:

I did 22 full runs on Hunter's Keep and I did not get a single Searing Enigma...

It could of course be horrible luck but it could also mean they've closed one route to get them...

I've updated the original post with the new stats.

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Miss Perative
Miss Perative
Posts: 46

12/6/2013
Corran wrote:
Thought this warranted a new post:

I did 22 full runs on Hunter's Keep and I did not get a single Searing Enigma...

It could of course be horrible luck but it could also mean they've closed one route to get them...

I've updated the original post with the new stats.



  • I'm not a seeker--I went out of sheer greed--but I'll chime in with my own anecdotal data: I went to Hunter's Keep in November and did between 25 and 30 runs with only one Searing Enigma result. In the past the Keep has been very kind to me so I just figured that the odds had changed significantly but that I'd missed seeing it on the forum.

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    serguma
    serguma
    Posts: 65

    12/6/2013
    Last week I did around 6 runs or so and I got one Searing Enigma, so back then it was still possible at least.

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    Gillsing
    Gillsing
    Posts: 1207

    12/6/2013
    Now that we don't get thrown out of a storylet when we go to our inventories, entertaining the Topsy King with bats should give the 'full' 2.25 Echoes/Action as long as you can bring down your Shadowy to 78 to 'get in' and then bring it up to 120+ for 100% success. Seems like a lot of clicking though, so it might not be worth it when you account for the cost in real time. Certainly not with the extreme lag I'm experiencing lately when I'm switching equipment.
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    Raymond Price
    Raymond Price
    Posts: 48

    12/26/2013
    Aximillio wrote:
    Hmm... It's not quite as good as I thought, diamonds are now only worth 12p compared to the old 14p...
    Still, it's trading 4E worth of goods for 5.4E, a profit of 140ppa. That is, of course, ignoring the cost of acquiring the cryptic clues, but I've got 11K and get more just shambling around the city. I suppose this is just a supplementary source of income, between grinds and when you have actions to spare. Sara Hysaro wrote:
    You can use the Investigating raising options in the University, and then cash out in the Flit.
    Following up on this, I ran some figures, and there are a couple ways to do it. Spending 7 actions talking to the porters will get 756 whispered secrets and 7 sudden insights, at the cost of 175 cryptic clues. Alternatively, spending 10 actions on any other investigative option will get you ~500 cryptic clues. Either option will get Investigating 8, which you then spend another action cashing out in the Flit for 5.4E worth of goods. Total profit: Either 9.46E for 8 actions or 15.4E for 11, or 118.25 to 140ppa, plus a few second chances. I'm actually not sure which is more worthwhile, because sudden insights don't have a well-defined value, but in terms of things you can actually spend, the easiest investigating options are more profitable.
    ETA: That's assuming you get Investigating to 8, where the check is straightforward. It's a modest 70% chance at 5, the minimum to cash it out. Getting it there takes only 5-7 actions, and ups the profit to 138-155ppa, provided you make the check.
    ETA 2: Actually, that's wrong. It's 3-4 actions to Investigating 5, which means 178-188ppa, about the limit in profitability. On the other hand, it comes at the cost of not advancing in the University storyline.
    edited by Raymond R Price on 12/26/2013

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    HinterDemGlas
    HinterDemGlas
    Posts: 57

    1/3/2014
    You can sell Collections of Curiosities to Tomb-Colonists, on their Connected card, for five puzzling maps. This seems to be a really nice way to make an Echo, given that you can acquire CoCs with the War of Assassins carousel: 1 action to choose your enemy(if necessary), 18 actions for getting the Fighting a War of Assassins quality to 3 three times, 12 actions for getting it to 4 three times, 3 actions to convert to Dramatic Tension three times, 1 action to get the CoC, 1 action to cash it in for 5 Puzzling Maps, in total 36 actions for 62.5 Echos or about 1.73 E/a.

    Please correct my math if necessary. And I haven't drawn the Tomb-Colonists' card in quite some time, so it might've been rebalanced since.
    edited by HinterDemGlas on 1/21/2014

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    A B Nile
    A B Nile
    Posts: 414

    1/7/2014
    Not as of today - still 5 puzzling maps.

    I got my Collections of Curiosities during the earlier expeditions (2 each time). Thought they were poor value at the time, but slightly happier now!

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    Karhumies
    Karhumies
    Posts: 75

    1/8/2014
    Urthdigger wrote:
    This guide will attempt to analyze the various moneymaking options available to a capped player.

    Excellent opening post! Kudos.

    Urthdigger wrote:

    1)
    ==Tales of Mahogany Hall==
    we're going to assume that a capped player is choosing to steal props for 102 nevercold brass slivers and 2 CP of ToMH.

    ==Educating Lyme==


    2)
    ===Spite===
    ==Boxful of Intrigue==
    Once you hit 40, getting the candles is ~143 PPA. This is rather remarkable, as it is the highest reliable PPA currently (Screaming Map and Fidgeting Writer offer more, but are both luck based and require investments)


    Funny thing is, I had been doing these two for ages as non-PoSI, although they did not provide optimal money gain due to low stats. Now that I have finally achieved PoSI, I see very little reason to switch to any of the large variety of new options described later in the OP that have just sprung up (unfinished business, etc.).


    Regarding Mahogany Hall challenges:
    What was not discussed in the opening post (I only skimmed the thread after OP) is the severity of the consequences of failure. I guess this was due to assuming highest possible stats = straightforwardness of the challenges. For a character with low stats, Plagued by a Popular Song is the best menace to gain on a failure, because it raises the "actual" menaces very slowly. Therefore, the need to spend actions to fight off the menaces is smaller, leaving a low level character with significantly more echoes per action upon repeated use.

    You may ask, "Why would a low level character pursue difficult high money actions instead of 100% low money actions? Isn't that less echoes per action?" Yes, it's less echoes per action. But it's more CP for the stat increase per action when the challenge is difficult, making it an attractive way to raise stats quickly and occasionally gain money in the process as well. This works quite nicely with 60% chancy odds, especially when the failure does not punish the player much (Plagued by a popular song). I have not done the maths for this yet, but I might do it in the future.

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    OPG
    OPG
    Posts: 387

    1/8/2014
    Karhumies wrote:
    This works quite nicely with 60% chancy odds, especially when the failure does not punish the player much (Plagued by a popular song). I have not done the maths for this yet, but I might do it in the future.
    Actually, I've been experiencing a bug(?) for a while wherein failure on a Very/Chancy challenge yields me only 1 CP of that quality (plus the normal menace/failure states), whereas a success gives me 3 CPs of that quality (plus the appropriate rewards).

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    Gillsing
    Gillsing
    Posts: 1207

    1/8/2014
    OPG wrote:
    Actually, I've been experiencing a bug(?) for a while wherein failure on a Very/Chancy challenge yields me only 1 CP of that quality (plus the normal menace/failure states), whereas a success gives me 3 CPs of that quality (plus the appropriate rewards).
    That doesn't sound like a bug. That's how it's always been for me. And it's also what the wikia says.
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    Karhumies
    Karhumies
    Posts: 75

    1/8/2014
    Karhumies wrote:
    This works quite nicely with 60% chancy odds, especially when the failure does not punish the player much (Plagued by a popular song). I have not done the maths for this yet, but I might do it in the future.


    Short Non-PoSI maths

    == Mahogany Hall ==
    Steal props and goods from other theatres - shadowy stat gain with chancy 60%
    Requires Shadowy 102
    upon gaining stat levels, items should be (un)equipped to drop the chances back to 60% or worse to keep Shadowy CP gain up

    Success 60%
    Shadowy +3 CP
    102 pennies as Nevercold Brass sliver

    Failure 40%
    Shadowy +1 CP
    Plagued by a popular song +1 CP

    Maths
    0.6 x 102 = 61.2 pennies per action average
    (0.6 x 3CP) + (0.4 x 1CP) = 2.3 CP increase in Shadowy per action average
    0.4 x 1 = 0.4 CP increase in PbPS per action average

    Scandal increase (+2 CP, IIRC?) roughly once per 8(?) CP of PbPS after PbPS has reached level 6 for the first time. No possessed weasels. (based on personal experience, both of these values fluctuate slightly, possibly based on a luck check?).
    n x 0.4 = 8
    n = 20 actions required per average to increase Scandal at all

    2 CP Scandal : 20 actions = +0.1 CP Scandal per action per average

    In conclusion:
    for one full non-exceptional friend candle of 20 actions:
    1224 pennies
    Shadowy +46 CP (if one level is 50CP, this is roughly a level)
    Scandal +2 CP


    == Spite ==
    Rob a drunk - an anonymous wretch
    IIRC, this is the most efficient way to gain money in the very early game. That's why I have chosen it to compare against.
    100% (Straightforward) with Shadowy 22

    Success
    +1 CP Shadowy per action
    +21 - 80 Primordial Shriek per action (0.02 each)

    Maths
    assuming uniform distribution of random:
    + 50 primordial shriek = 1 echo per action average

    In conclusion:
    for one full non-exceptional friend candle of 20 actions:
    2000 pennies
    Shadowy +20 CP


    == Comparison - 20 actions ==
    Compared to rob a drunk, the Mahogany hall option purchases
    + 26 Shadowy
    at the cost of
    - 776 pennies
    + 2(?) Scandal (well, 1x increase from PbPS trigger)

    == Comparison - 1 action ==
    Supposing that the PbPS trigger increase is +2 Scandal,
    + 1.3 Shadowy per action
    - 38.8 pennies per action
    + 0.1 Scandal per actions

    ...which gives the price of the tradeoff for +1 CP of Shadowy as lost Shrieks converted to pennies at
    (38.8 / 1.3) = ( n / 1)
    n = 29.85 pennies

    ...which gives the price of 1 level (+50 CP) of Shadowy as lost Shrieks converted to pennies
    1492.5 pennies

    This comparison produces significantly cheaper Shadowy gain per level (in echoes) than, say, purchasing a Beguiling Mask:
    +6 Shadowy, 115.2 echoes = 115.2 / 6 = 19.2 echoes per level

    Gillsing wrote:
    OPG wrote:
    Actually, I've been experiencing a bug(?) for a while wherein failure on a Very/Chancy challenge yields me only 1 CP of that quality (plus the normal menace/failure states), whereas a success gives me 3 CPs of that quality (plus the appropriate rewards).
    That doesn't sound like a bug. That's how it's always been for me. And it's also what the wikia says.


    Here's the relevant link:
    http://fallenlondon.wikia.com/wiki/Beginner%27s_Guide#Change_Points

    Chancy 60% gives +3 CP on success and +1 CP on failure; straightforward gives +1 CP either way. Therefore, chancy is much faster for stat gain, especially if the menace treatment for failures is simple. Although slower for other rewards (items).
    edited by Karhumies on 1/8/2014

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    Dr. Hieronymous Alloy
    Dr. Hieronymous Alloy
    Posts: 228

    1/8/2014
    Hrm, what are your thoughts on this strategy? http://community.failbettergames.com/topic4344-grinding-watchful-and-persuasive.aspx#post51030

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    Miss Perative
    Miss Perative
    Posts: 46

    1/8/2014
    This was never a huge money-making option, but...
    As someone with a lot of Airag I've always been pleased that the conversion from Cellars came with a pouch of 30 First City coins, which was lovely since the conversion cost three actions. No longer--the lagniappe is now only five coins.

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    empirimancer
    empirimancer
    Posts: 99

    1/22/2014
    What do people think of Gather your forces against the Big Rat > Advertise a spot of hunting?

    Requires Connected Society 15. Nabs 3 x Secluded Address, +1 CP Scandal, +3 CP Running Battle. No stat gain.

    At 150 ppa, this doesn't seem bad at all, and you can cash in Running Battle elsewhere in say, Black Ribbon duels. It does mean stalling the Big Rat storyline, though.

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    Mordaine Barimen
    Mordaine Barimen
    Posts: 670

    1/22/2014
    I was pondering the same thing, empiramancer. Was going to calculate out how many actions to build up enough to decapitate Fedducci again and get a more precise ppa before trying to determine the effective cost for the +1CP Scandal per action.

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    HinterDemGlas
    HinterDemGlas
    Posts: 57

    1/22/2014
    Feducci's a bad idea because he massively wounds you on a failure and you will want to use the duel as soon as possible, at the 50% mark.

    Let's go for the throat, not the head: If my math isn't terrible off (it might be) it should take ~31 actions á 3 Running Battle cp to take down Chi Lan on average, if you duel her as soon as possible, plus the ~2 actions to actually duel her. All that considering the 50% success rate.
    The bounty is 30 Echos, giving you 0.9 Echos per action... on top of the Secluded Addresses! So you end up at about 2.4 Echoes.

    And by now I'm eyeing that fate option on my much-valued albino screwdriver... eh, companion.

    My calculations might be wrong and summon shoggoths when checked.

    E: Clarifications.
    E: Math!
    edited by HinterDemGlas on 1/22/2014
    edited by HinterDemGlas on 1/22/2014
    edited by HinterDemGlas on 1/23/2014
    edited by HinterDemGlas on 1/23/2014

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    empirimancer
    empirimancer
    Posts: 99

    1/23/2014
    Just thinking aloud about the math:

    Chi Lan requires Running Battle 13 to attempt, which by the triangular number formula, is 13*14/2=91CP=30.3 actions to acquire for a 50% success to get 3000 Rostygold and a 50% failure of -10CP Running Battle and some Wounds. If we did use 2 actions as a rough/wrong approximation of the expected payoff, that is still 3000/32.3=92.9 ppa, so with the secluded addresses its 242.9 ppa.

    To be more precise, the formula would be recursive. Suppose that you duel Chi Lan, and if you fail, you grind back Running Battle up and try again, and if you fail again, you try again, ad infinitum. We want to calculate an "average ppa" that accounts for the probability of being in each possible state (failing 0 times, failing 1 time, failing 2 times...)

    To simplify the calculation, let's limit the recursion to failing 1 time, so that's 31.3 actions in the case of a success and 35.6 actions in the case of a failure then a success, so 1500/31.3 + 1500/35.6 = 47.9 + 42.1 = 90.


  • Suppose we have up to failing twice, that is, a) a success, b) a failure then a success, or c) a failure, another failure and then a success. Then it's 3000 * 0.5 / 31.33 + 3000 * 0.5 * 0.5 / 35.66 + 3000 * 0.5 * 0.5 / 39.99 = 87.66

    The next alternative other than dueling Feducci is Inch which requires Running Battle 9 for a 30% chance at 1872 Rostygold. Running Battle 9 is 45CP or 15 actions. As before, let's limit the recursion to 2 failures, so we have 1872 * 0.3 / 16 + 1872 * 0.7 * 0.3 / 20.3 + 1872 * 0.7 * 0.7 / 24.6 = 91.8. So dueling Inch is very slightly better than dueling Chi Lan.

    I did the same calculation for the other duelists and it's about the same for dueling to the death, with Inch very slightly in the lead.

    So in summary, the Gather your forces against the Big Rat > Advertise a spot of hunting strategy to grind Secluded Addresses and Running Battle for dueling Inch produces something like ~240 ppa on average. If you need to cash in Running Battle sooner, dueling Pommery is only slightly less efficient.

    Caveat lector as always
    edited by empirimancer on 1/23/2014

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    HinterDemGlas
    HinterDemGlas
    Posts: 57

    1/23/2014
    Ah, I calculated 14 Running Battle for Li. I don't remember why. I corrected that and got the 2.4 empirimancer got. Yeah.

    A tip: I'm not a man of statisitics, but if you deal with a 50% chance that inflicts some kind of penalty, you can assume that penalty happens exactly once on average, for: a/2 + a/4 + a/8 + a/16 + (and so on ad infinitum) = a
    I don't know the correct notation. Sue me.
    Please don't sue me.
    edited by HinterDemGlas on 1/23/2014

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    Master Polarimini
    Master Polarimini
    Posts: 310

    3/6/2014
    This is a bit unrelated with Urthdigger's guide, but considering that it's about money I just wanted to share a couple statistics I did with the POSI randomized options.
    I'm pretty sure someone else did it but I couldn't find any thread about it, so here's mine.

    I performed 100 times each the two actions that give souls (in Spite) and proscribed material (at Watchmaker's).
    Results:

    - souls: I got an average of 62 souls per action (1.24 echoes). The variance however is high, the standard deviation is ~34 souls, meaning you have 70% probability to get a number of souls between 28 and 96 souls (0.56-1.92 echoes). A pretty big variation. The three lowest results I got in my 100 times are 2, 3 and four, and the three highest are 119 and 117(x2).

    - proscribed materials: I got an average of 26 (1.04 echoes) with a standard deviation of 12 (70% probability of getting between 14 and 38 books that is between 0.56-1.52 echoes). Of course for the proscribed materials each variation costs 0.04 echoes so it's riskier. The three lowest values I got are 6(x2) and 7 (which I actually got 5 times); the three highest are 45 (once) and 44 (5 times).
    edited by Master Polarimini on 3/6/2014

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