Nigel Overstreet
Posts: 1220
2/6/2014
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Sackville wrote:
Nigel, don't forget the 22 actions to actually turn those FW items into mysteries! That brings it down to ~1.36, and if we round those odds to .7, .7, .7, and .6 we're down again to ~1.26 (and personally, the last time I tried the FW, with my admittedly small sample, I got much closer to 40% on Deals with a Devil than the 60% people seem to expect).
Anyway, I might as well throw my own spreadsheet into the mix. There's no empirical data here, but you can tweak the odds to whatever you think is appropriate and the math ought to be sound.
The calculations have also been done for cashing out at each level, so in that fourth row of numbers for example I've replaced my rounded odds with Vyrlokar's empirical data, and the result is quite close to what Nigel got.
Ah yes. I always forget a step or two like that. In any event, cashing out at Antique Mysteries is not the best course of action.
A quick gander at my mantelpiece will show that I'm working my way through about 15,000 Tales of Terror myself. I'll have a better idea of the real odds after I've worked through those.
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Spacemarine9
Posts: 2234
2/6/2014
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If it helps your calculations, I am fairly sure these are the odds descriptions for different probabilities (like i've said elsewhere, Luck is a Narrow challenge so it increases in increments of 10%, all characters have 0 Luck because the RNG hates you and that's how the mechanic works, also)
bam feast your eyes
[spoiler]
100%- A sure thing. Or is it?
90%- How can you fail?
80%- Pretty good odds
70%- Pretty good odds
60%- It could go either way
50%- It could go either way
40%- The odds are against you here
30%- The odds are strongly against you here
20%- The odds are strongly against you here
10%- A long shot... but you might win
(minimum odds are 10%)
[/spoiler]
...unless FL uses a different DifficultyScalar for luck, which is possible but fairly unlikely.
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my rats will blot out the sun
Ratgames
FL lore/mechanics questions and answers
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"Many" Chin
Posts: 383
2/6/2014
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Nigel Overstreet wrote:
...
Not a safe assumption. 70% is probably more accurate.
Vyrlokar added up a good number of results here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/pub?key=0AlbwjlynOB13dDQtelhZdm9LQlpJQ1JXa0FnMlFPamc&single=true&gid=6&output=html
In my experience, that list is extremely liberal in it's calculations.
However, using those calculations, you would get about 44 Antique Mysteries for 100 Tales of Terror. This will cost you 100 Tales of Terror, 71 Visions of the Surface, 100 Correspondence Plaques, 72 Brilliant Souls and 257 actions.
So you would gain 550 Echoes worth of Antique Mysteries. Minus the 171.5 Echoes worth of items you're burning, that's 1.47 Echoes per action and that's if you already have the materials.
While that's not nothing, it's about on par with Affair of the Box and it's a far cry from your 1.9 estimate.
oh. i didn't notice that spreadsheet until a while ago. and yes, i didn't include the actions needed to convert or grind for the resources. neglected it since i never intended to seriously focus on the FW storylet for echos.
i quite liked the fairly low risk(once you've raised your stats high enough) of Hunter's Keep, with its added "insurance" of not dying and going mad on that isle. but i wanted to test out other options since i wanted to avoid zailing back and forth to claim my professional rewards. i remembered i liked the College/Flit trick too, but changing equipment regularly was quite a hassle, and it would be impossible to do once you've maxed out your shadow stat.
even with that resource grinding included in that spreadsheet, the empirical data looks far too lucky to me. i imagined the extremely low probability (~3.46% ,using Vyrlokar's data) of winning all 7 luck tests in a row to get the last reward of FW ,would equate to a vast loss of echos on average. and i personally wouldn't have the willpower to take the loss of even 10's of Tales of Terror/ Visions/ Cor.Plaques/ Brilliant Souls. the waste of actions(which imho is a more precious resource) would demoralise me even more.
I'm not sure if I've seen anything with a better rate than the following: Announce "a Spot of Hunting" during the endgame of the "Big Rat" storyline- zero chance of failure, nets you +3CP Running Battle, 3 Secluded Addresses, and +1CP Scandal. When you have enough Running Battle, cash in on a duel with Chi Lan for 3000 Rostygold.
problem is you'll need a LB Bandit Chief to make progress quickly with the big rat storylet OR spend NEX points to skip to that point. and the most safest way to win Chi Lan's battle requires a random card drawn when you're dead. that means potentialy taking up a lot of actions to buy that Bandit Chief(or lots of luck with the Talkative one or the standard Working rat) and getting out of that slow boat to the afterlife.
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"My little China girl/You shouldn't mess with me/I'll ruin everything you are/I'll give you television/I'll give you eyes of blue/I'll give you man who wants to rule the world"
- The Goblin King.
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Sara Hysaro
Moderator
Posts: 4514
2/6/2014
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i remembered i liked the College/Flit trick too, but changing equipment regularly was quite a hassle, and it would be impossible to do once you've maxed out your shadow stat.
This is an incorrect statement for 2 reasons. The first is that it's an Investigating check, not a Shadowy one. The second is your assumption that it goes away if your Shadowy gets too high. It does not.
Edit: Also, I don't think you need luck to progress in the Big Rat story. I recall being able to make everything 100% just by offering enough candles.
edited by Sara Hysaro on 2/6/2014
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Cordial
Posts: 36
2/6/2014
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Sorry to intrude, but what's the College/Flit trick?
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Sara Hysaro
Moderator
Posts: 4514
2/6/2014
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You're not intruding. ^^ The College/Flit trick is possible if you're on the second University cycle. You raise Investigating in the University, and go to the Flit to spend it. It's pretty good for echoes.
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http://fallenlondon.storynexus.com/Profile/Sara%20Hysaro
Please do not send SMEN, cat boxes, or Affluent Reporter requests. All other social actions are welcome.
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Andrea Serafini
Posts: 169
2/6/2014
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Not sure if it has already pointed out, but - even if the final step requires a Standard frequency card - grinding collection of curiosities to sell to the tomb colonist is quite remunerative, 35 actions for 62.5 echo.
So it is 1.79 echo / action, which seems to me pretty good!
--
Mizr Edlaine Saphburgh, the Prothean Neologist
Per aspera, sic itur ad astra
(i.e. I'd really love to patron new and seasoned Londoneers, or help them in any other way possible.
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A B Nile
Posts: 414
2/6/2014
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Andrea Serafini wrote:
Not sure if it has already pointed out, but - even if the final step requires a Standard frequency card - grinding collection of curiosities to sell to the tomb colonist is quite remunerative, 35 actions for 62.5 echo.
So it is 1.79 echo / action, which seems to me pretty good!
Unfortunately, I haven't seen the Tomb Colonists' card for absolutely ages. I used to get it all the time before I started wanting it for this purpose!
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My profile: A B Nile
My alt: Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate
(seeking Acquaintances and accepting all social actions)
Item conversion table - finally complete with all rare successes!
Bloody, bold and resolute
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Sackville
Posts: 295
2/6/2014
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I have the opposite problem. Whatever I'm doing, I always seem to draw the Tomb Colonists card and then I feel compelled to grind curiosities to sell them.
I'm worried that if I stockpile any in advance though then the card will stop appearing, because the RNG is sentient and malicious.
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Rinsik
Posts: 37
2/6/2014
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Andrea Serafini wrote:
Not sure if it has already pointed out, but - even if the final step requires a Standard frequency card - grinding collection of curiosities to sell to the tomb colonist is quite remunerative, 35 actions for 62.5 echo.
So it is 1.79 echo / action, which seems to me pretty good!
A related question...
I am non-POSI (attributes in the 80-90 range) and have one of those curiositiies (was it from the advent calendar?). I don't think I can go for another one in some time, but from the wiki I don't think I will need it any time soon. I do get the card, and I am tempted to trade for maps and sell those... are puzzling maps of any use at my level?
Thanks
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Spacemarine9
Posts: 2234
2/6/2014
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There are very few uses for Puzzling Maps; for the most part, they're just good items for selling.
--
my rats will blot out the sun
Ratgames
FL lore/mechanics questions and answers
#FallenLondon IRC (irc.synirc.net) Channel! Click to join via Mibbit.
#SunlessSea IRC channel! Like the above, but zee-ier.
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EmilyAriel
Posts: 124
2/6/2014
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Rinsik wrote:
Andrea Serafini wrote:
Not sure if it has already pointed out, but - even if the final step requires a Standard frequency card - grinding collection of curiosities to sell to the tomb colonist is quite remunerative, 35 actions for 62.5 echo.
So it is 1.79 echo / action, which seems to me pretty good!
A related question...
I am non-POSI (attributes in the 80-90 range) and have one of those curiositiies (was it from the advent calendar?). I don't think I can go for another one in some time, but from the wiki I don't think I will need it any time soon. I do get the card, and I am tempted to trade for maps and sell those... are puzzling maps of any use at my level?
Thanks
You'll need one in the Affair of the Box, and I think one of the ambitions (Heart's Desire or Light Fingers?) uses one or two, but other than that they're just good for selling afaik.
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Gillsing
Posts: 1203
2/6/2014
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Here is a list of storylets that require a Puzzling Map.
Apparently you need a Puzzling Map if you want to become Closest to: The Docks. But why would anyone want that? 
And you can use it to 'play it safe' at the last stage of the Cat and Mouse game when looking for a Screaming Map. But I wouldn't recommend that.
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"Many" Chin
Posts: 383
2/6/2014
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Sara Hysaro wrote:
i remembered i liked the College/Flit trick too, but changing equipment regularly was quite a hassle, and it would be impossible to do once you've maxed out your shadow stat.
This is an incorrect statement for 2 reasons. The first is that it's an Investigating check, not a Shadowy one. The second is your assumption that it goes away if your Shadowy gets too high. It does not.
Edit: Also, I don't think you need luck to progress in the Big Rat story. I recall being able to make everything 100% just by offering enough candles.
edited by Sara Hysaro on 2/6/2014
yes, my mistake. the game's been updated. previously(long ago) a lot of storylets were closed off when your stats get too high, including duelling the black ribbon. i was on away from fallen london for many moons before i got back into it again.
i bought lots of candles to to progress the big rat story but eventually decided to try my luck with 15X talkative rats. have 4 talkative rats left by the end of it. currently i've already killed the big rat(because my character is most bloody-minded) ,so i can't test out that trick again. found university/flit route to be more profitable and straight-forward anyway.
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edit: btw, for my last run on university/flit trick, i seem to have gotten 3 echos/action?? doesn't seem right.maybe my counting is off due to lack of sleep.it should be about 1.56 echos/action if you raise investigating to only 5 before cashing out in flit.
edited by Paya Danceswithporngroove Chin on 2/6/2014
--
"My little China girl/You shouldn't mess with me/I'll ruin everything you are/I'll give you television/I'll give you eyes of blue/I'll give you man who wants to rule the world"
- The Goblin King.
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Gillsing
Posts: 1203
2/6/2014
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University + Flit is 4 x 1.06 + 5.40 in 5 Actions if you don't account for the 30% risk of failing. That's 1.93 Echoes per Action, which goes down to around 1.78 or so when accounting for failures and retries.
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Andrea Serafini
Posts: 169
2/6/2014
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Sackville wrote:
I have the opposite problem. Whatever I'm doing, I always seem to draw the Tomb Colonists card and then I feel compelled to grind curiosities to sell them.
I'm worried that if I stockpile any in advance though then the card will stop appearing, because the RNG is sentient and malicious.
I can confirm it.
I have 3 or 4 collection in my inventory, and the tomb colonist are hiding somewhere.
I think it is obvious that the gift the RNG sent us during christmas was to take us off guard.
--
Mizr Edlaine Saphburgh, the Prothean Neologist
Per aspera, sic itur ad astra
(i.e. I'd really love to patron new and seasoned Londoneers, or help them in any other way possible.
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"Many" Chin
Posts: 383
2/6/2014
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yes that is correct. i recalculated and got 1.928 echos/action. but i think i will choose less risky uni options for increasing investigating since i've been failing low-risk challenges of 88% more often than i should. sometimes twice in a row. i hate you, RNG!
btw noticed that the flit reward "disappeared" when i equipped all my watchful gear and my shadowy dipped to below 85(i bought mid-level shadowy gear to get POSI). so i needed to change gear to do university/flit efficiently because my base shadowy was too low, not because it was too high.
edited by DamWei on 3/26/2014
--
"My little China girl/You shouldn't mess with me/I'll ruin everything you are/I'll give you television/I'll give you eyes of blue/I'll give you man who wants to rule the world"
- The Goblin King.
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"Many" Chin
Posts: 383
2/7/2014
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may i ask if anyone has substantial data on "robbing a drunk" in spite?
read on the fallen london wikia that robbing a drunken rattus has a rare chance of getting a ratwork watch, which is very very valuable. i'm guessing the chances are far lower than getting a sword-cane from robbing the officer? unfortunately robbing an LB seems to be affected by "The Airs of London are Changeable" too.
also some data on the mass diamond conversion in sidestreets(rare chance to find a magnificient diamond) would be nice too. thanks.
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maybe offtopic but is the "someone is coming" value(it's lowered when robbing a rat) useful to a POSI? i found that there's hardly any actions that raise that once your stats are around 50+ or so? the rewards from it seem to be minor in lategame anyway.
edited by Paya Danceswithporngroove Chin on 2/7/2014
--
"My little China girl/You shouldn't mess with me/I'll ruin everything you are/I'll give you television/I'll give you eyes of blue/I'll give you man who wants to rule the world"
- The Goblin King.
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lady ciel
Posts: 2548
2/7/2014
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Sorry can't help on robbing a drunk I just do the first option if I need to change my airs of London.
If you have lots of cryptic clues the Bazaar sidestreets are profitable.
As a POSI "someone is coming" gives 24 Visions of the Surface which if you just sell them is 12 echoes or part of the conversion chain to get Bazaar permits so I think it is worth it. You get someone is coming by playing the conflict cards among other things.
My soul-less shepherd alt uses the option to get souls and contracts as there is a very useful but expensive Shepherd of Souls option which takes a lot of them.
edited by reveurciel on 2/7/2014
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ciel
Sorry RL means I am not a very active player at the moment. No social actions unless you are prepared to wait and definitely no sparring or other mult-action things.
No Calling Cards or boxed cats please. Will take dupes on the affluent photographers. Other social invitations welcome. Parabolan Kittens usually available, send me an in-game social action saying you want one and I will get one to you as soon as possible.
storynexus name - reveurciel
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Fhoenix
Posts: 602
2/7/2014
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lady ciel wrote:
My soul-less shepherd alt uses the option to get souls and contracts as there is a very useful but expensive Shepherd of Souls option which takes a lot of them.
My soul-less shepherd does that too
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My Character
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