Aysez
Posts: 5
6/21/2012
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iron republic
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Endy
Posts: 278
6/21/2012
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M_L_G wrote:
Urthdigger wrote:
Endy wrote:
has anyone done any of the math for the 8-42 loop in the Iron Republic?
I've managed 3 journals there during a trip, with some of my CP spent on Menace reduction.
edited by Endy on 6/20/2012
I would love to research the Iron Republic more thoroughly. One problem, however, is that the Iron Republic is what I like to call "rollercoaster content". Once you hop on, there is no stopping it until you are finished. A lot of my research depends on the ability to go use a "control storylet" with a known value in order to determine exact CP amounts when a quality goes up a level. Without a control storylet, I can't get an exact number when it goes up or down a level, unless the next storylet right after takes it to up to 1 CP, in which case I know the first storylet took it to precisely that level, and the second was worth 1 CP.
I think that each storylet which gives "Changed by the Iron Republic" gives 1 CP of it. The Iron Republic Journal uses up 15 CP of it and sells for 15 echoes, so the storylets within the Iron Republic each give an effective 1 echo per action. However, that does not count the time to get there, menace reduction time, etc. It's not going to be a profitable place to go and hang out.
I think I'm actually making headway mapping it out. :O
like a labyrinth with some of the paths through the loop are better than others.
it is actually a pretty clever bit of writing. You dodge the pitfalls while aiming for the good routes. Get the good routes in the right order and you come out of the loop with minimal menaces. The story itself is crazy but overall it makes a certain amount of sense.
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Through the darker shadows.
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Urthdigger
Posts: 939
6/21/2012
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Endy wrote:
M_L_G wrote:
Urthdigger wrote:
Endy wrote:
has anyone done any of the math for the 8-42 loop in the Iron Republic?
I've managed 3 journals there during a trip, with some of my CP spent on Menace reduction.
edited by Endy on 6/20/2012
I would love to research the Iron Republic more thoroughly. One problem, however, is that the Iron Republic is what I like to call "rollercoaster content". Once you hop on, there is no stopping it until you are finished. A lot of my research depends on the ability to go use a "control storylet" with a known value in order to determine exact CP amounts when a quality goes up a level. Without a control storylet, I can't get an exact number when it goes up or down a level, unless the next storylet right after takes it to up to 1 CP, in which case I know the first storylet took it to precisely that level, and the second was worth 1 CP.
I think that each storylet which gives "Changed by the Iron Republic" gives 1 CP of it. The Iron Republic Journal uses up 15 CP of it and sells for 15 echoes, so the storylets within the Iron Republic each give an effective 1 echo per action. However, that does not count the time to get there, menace reduction time, etc. It's not going to be a profitable place to go and hang out.
I think I'm actually making headway mapping it out. :O
like a labyrinth with some of the paths through the loop are better than others.
it is actually a pretty clever bit of writing. You dodge the pitfalls while aiming for the good routes. Get the good routes in the right order and you come out of the loop with minimal menaces. The story itself is crazy but overall it makes a certain amount of sense.
I would love to see your notes. I've made a "map" of what we've got so far, a simple picture of which days can lead where. But this map doesn't have information on what precisely happens on those routes. I will say, though, that if each route gives 1 CP of Changed, then this is not a decent money maker at all. The iron republic journal is the only thing you get from there, it sells for 15 echoes, and it takes 15 CP to earn one. That means it'd be as effective a money maker as Unfinished Business, with extra menaces and a zee voyage to get there and back. Though, each voyage there does enhance a unique quality I guess.
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Endy
Posts: 278
6/21/2012
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Urthdigger wrote:
Endy wrote:
M_L_G wrote:
Urthdigger wrote:
Endy wrote:
has anyone done any of the math for the 8-42 loop in the Iron Republic?
I've managed 3 journals there during a trip, with some of my CP spent on Menace reduction.
edited by Endy on 6/20/2012
I would love to research the Iron Republic more thoroughly. One problem, however, is that the Iron Republic is what I like to call "rollercoaster content". Once you hop on, there is no stopping it until you are finished. A lot of my research depends on the ability to go use a "control storylet" with a known value in order to determine exact CP amounts when a quality goes up a level. Without a control storylet, I can't get an exact number when it goes up or down a level, unless the next storylet right after takes it to up to 1 CP, in which case I know the first storylet took it to precisely that level, and the second was worth 1 CP.
I think that each storylet which gives "Changed by the Iron Republic" gives 1 CP of it. The Iron Republic Journal uses up 15 CP of it and sells for 15 echoes, so the storylets within the Iron Republic each give an effective 1 echo per action. However, that does not count the time to get there, menace reduction time, etc. It's not going to be a profitable place to go and hang out.
I think I'm actually making headway mapping it out. :O
like a labyrinth with some of the paths through the loop are better than others.
it is actually a pretty clever bit of writing. You dodge the pitfalls while aiming for the good routes. Get the good routes in the right order and you come out of the loop with minimal menaces. The story itself is crazy but overall it makes a certain amount of sense.
I would love to see your notes. I've made a "map" of what we've got so far, a simple picture of which days can lead where. But this map doesn't have information on what precisely happens on those routes. I will say, though, that if each route gives 1 CP of Changed, then this is not a decent money maker at all. The iron republic journal is the only thing you get from there, it sells for 15 echoes, and it takes 15 CP to earn one. That means it'd be as effective a money maker as Unfinished Business, with extra menaces and a zee voyage to get there and back. Though, each voyage there does enhance a unique quality I guess.
Here are all the "good" sequences I've found so far:
Suspicious Night: 8 12 19 27 34 40 42
Wounded Heart: 8 17 32 34 40 42
Vogue: 8 17 27 34 40 42
each Name relating back to the menace(s) it minimizes. I'm trying to put together an electronic version of the exact steps needed, but going to be a bit. Wiki has most of it already though.
It strongly reminds me of the Garden of Forking Paths, with the 40-42-8 sequence allowing you to experience all the possibilities.
Barrister is the key to it all. Does feel wrong insulting a Lady but nonetheless it is the only way.
At least some of the storylets offer 2 CP. There may be a "Max CP" path, though need more numbers to figure it out.
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sonantem aeternum ad terram
Through the darker shadows.
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Urthdigger
Posts: 939
6/21/2012
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I've started doing my own research, and I have noticed not all storylets give 1 CP of "Changed by the Iron Republic". I've seen up to 3 that I can confirm in a single action. I'll see if I can get my changed up enough to where I can start seeing exact results more often.
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Endy
Posts: 278
6/22/2012
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what I have so far, presently concerned with CP changes and how the storylets are linked together.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AmIgjvh0rFaLdEFBandlZUFMUDNNaVBXTjZLSC1kbHc
tricky to access some of the content, so still needs work.
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Through the darker shadows.
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Kade Carrion (an_ocelot)
Posts: 1372
6/27/2012
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Endy, I don't have CPs, but I do have notes for the story paths; do you want them, or are you having fun tracking this down on your own?
(Edit: never mind, I see the a wiki does have the paths.)
edited by an_ocelot on 6/27/2012
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Endy
Posts: 278
6/27/2012
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an_ocelot wrote:
Endy, I don't have CPs, but I do have notes for the story paths; do you want them, or are you having fun tracking this down on your own?
(Edit: never mind, I see the a wiki does have the paths.)
edited by an_ocelot on 6/27/2012
yeah, I'm actually about to get the heck out of this nut house :P
on average I think you can make around 1.5 Echoes, but looping around forever seriously wears on you.
I'm going to loop through once more to get wounds/nightmares down, then head out with only Scandal high. Back on the Unterzee I'll use my Scandal to sell off my Memento of Passion and later lower it back down using Making Waves instead.
I'm really curious what the one Impossible! storylet unlocks. I'm hopeful we can acquire another novelty item. 
edited by Endy on 6/27/2012
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Through the darker shadows.
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ZappBasker
Posts: 56
7/18/2012
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Nigel Overstreet wrote:
You should be ... ignoring clothing, hats, etc. until much further down the line.
Isn't this counter intuitive?
As soon as I got out of starting prison and discovered the Bazaar, I wanted to get at least the lowest-tier Hat, Clothing, Gloves and Boots. Without these slots filled I felt naked somehow - especially since the game is set in a period where clothing is of the utmost importance. Discovering that even these modest items are completely out of reach is not a little disappointing.
Then discovering that you're recommended to ignore these accroutements altogether until you are "much" further down the line (I'm at 30+ in my main stats, and still anything more than a single Echo is a huge expense for me) feels... wrong somehow.
Low level items must be balanced for low level players. Now everything seems balanced for the end game, which makes a lot of items not only useless for quite some time but downright bad for you (since you're much better off by ignoring these purchases and rushing towards the end game).
Reading this thread makes me realize the game is very little about Echoes, and so I would suggest:
1) either rebalancing prices to make the Bazaar relevant throughout the game.
a) set prices in currencies that players actually possess (rostygold, glim, etc)
b) add Echo rewards to many (most?) actions/storylets in the game, so you can hope to buy stuff at the bazaar without having to give up your hard-earned stuff you need for future content (essentially turning the weakness of "worthless Echoes" into a strength of the game: "here's things you can buy without fear of losing out on other stuff since Echoes are guaranteed not-useful elsewhere!"
2) or making it a unlockable location in the game (meaning low-level players don't even see the Bazaar until it starts to be worthwhile to unload stuff for Echoes)
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Nigel Overstreet
Posts: 1220
7/18/2012
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The low level items are pretty well balanced for low level play. It's about 12 Echoes for +1 stuff and around 400 for +5 stuff. That's feels about right to me.
The issue is that you don't stay at a low level for very long. I have spent far more time level capped than I have spent bellow ranks, and I feel I didn't start the game very early. You can get up through several levels very quickly if you play a lot and, when you do, you find yourself selling off some of that lower level stuff, losing money in the process. That's just my strategy. Urthdigger disagrees and thinks you should get the best stuff as soon as you can. I don't think he's wrong, it's just not how I would do it.
I also don't feel that having clothes on my mantelpiece is very important. It wasn't part of my game play and when I do ebzwrites or roleplay, I largely ignore what is on my mantelpiece at the time. I fully understand that other may feel differently. If putting on a hat, gloves, etc. is important to you, by all means do that. If you just want to have clothes because you feel a Victorian should be walking around in clothes, it should only cost you about 7.6 Echoes, which I don't think is beyond your reach at 30+ stats.
In the long run you won't loose out a lot and it's not like you're playing the game wrong; it's just not the particular strategy I use.
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BaronElectric
Posts: 68
7/18/2012
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Nigel Overstreet wrote:
The issue is that you don't stay at a low level for very long. I have spent far more time level capped than I have spent bellow ranks, and I feel I didn't start the game very early. You can get up through several levels very quickly if you play a lot and, when you do, you find yourself selling off some of that lower level stuff, losing money in the process. That's just my strategy. Urthdigger disagrees and thinks you should get the best stuff as soon as you can. I don't think he's wrong, it's just not how I would do it.
Speaking as a middle path (and someone who started right after the name change) I found I could get a complete set of +1 items for each stat pretty easily, and then I figured out what the best in slot items were and bought them in increasing order of price when I had a decent amount of excess stuff built up. Right now (after a week of farming in HK) I'm only missing 8 items (7 if you don't count the Overgoat) and have enough excess money to buy 1-2 more.
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Endy
Posts: 278
7/18/2012
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yeah, I did something similar. Got the +1-2 items then skipped on to the top tier ones.
if you want an actual formula you can use:
Value = Points / Echo
or more accurate
Value = (Change Points Provided) / Echo
and base your purchasing off that.
The Menace Increase/Decrease items are always useful, so at the very least pick those up.
some of the lower items you'll need later anyways. You also may be able to achieve higher rewards using the items than otherwise, but not certain.
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sonantem aeternum ad terram
Through the darker shadows.
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Cedric Appleby
Posts: 121
7/21/2012
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ZappBasker wrote:
(...)
b) add Echo rewards to many (most?) actions/storylets in the game, so you can hope to buy stuff at the bazaar without having to give up your hard-earned stuff you need for future content (essentially turning the weakness of "worthless Echoes" into a strength of the game: "here's things you can buy without fear of losing out on other stuff since Echoes are guaranteed not-useful elsewhere!"(...)
A tangent: If memory serves, Knife-and-Candle used to provide Echoes directly. Of course, that was "temporarily" removed from the game about 18 months ago (and the official pen-and-paper adaption... uh... well), but perhaps the original intention was a setup resembling your suggestion - that PvP would provide the "useless" currency, rather than the proper storylets. Of course, I have no idea how profitable Knife-and-Candle actually was, so I may be wildly mistaken.
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amaresu
Posts: 209
7/22/2012
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ZappBasker wrote:
b) add Echo rewards to many (most?) actions/storylets in the game, so you can hope to buy stuff at the bazaar without having to give up your hard-earned stuff you need for future content (essentially turning the weakness of "worthless Echoes" into a strength of the game: "here's things you can buy without fear of losing out on other stuff since Echoes are guaranteed not-useful elsewhere!"
2) or making it a unlockable location in the game (meaning low-level players don't even see the Bazaar until it starts to be worthwhile to unload stuff for Echoes)
But isn't that a bit of the fun? Debating whether or not you really, really, need this item or your hoard of stuff? And most anything you'll need later can be gotten later. Perhaps at a higher price, but that is risk you take. I mean getting my Room at the Bethlehem would have been a lot easier if I hadn't sold all my PHoney to buy a Poison-Tipped Umbrella and various other things, but I got it anyway. (This was prior to the price restructuring.)
And cutting off the Bazaar to lower leveled players would ruin that. One of the first things I did was sell my prison gear and buy a Sober Dress and Cheerful Goldfish.
edited by amaresu on 7/22/2012
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amaresu
Posts: 209
7/22/2012
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Cedric Appleby wrote:
ZappBasker wrote:
(...)
b) add Echo rewards to many (most?) actions/storylets in the game, so you can hope to buy stuff at the bazaar without having to give up your hard-earned stuff you need for future content (essentially turning the weakness of "worthless Echoes" into a strength of the game: "here's things you can buy without fear of losing out on other stuff since Echoes are guaranteed not-useful elsewhere!"(...)
A tangent: If memory serves, Knife-and-Candle used to provide Echoes directly. Of course, that was "temporarily" removed from the game about 18 months ago (and the official pen-and-paper adaption... uh... well), but perhaps the original intention was a setup resembling your suggestion - that PvP would provide the "useless" currency, rather than the proper storylets. Of course, I have no idea how profitable Knife-and-Candle actually was, so I may be wildly mistaken.
Not very profitable at all. The main appeal was in ranking, getting a new dwelling, and being able to kill random people. Also the occasional Counterfeit Head of John the Baptist, Neophite Lens, or Giggling Mandrake.
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"Many" Chin
Posts: 383
2/5/2014
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hope nobody minds me replying to an old topic, but i'll like to post my calculations for earning echos with the "fidgeting writer" storylet for future reference.
assuming "pretty good odds" is 75% chance of success, and you don't try the further options that "could go either way" that would mean--
~31.6% chance of getting "pretty good odds" 4 X in a row, and then "exchange" your Tales of Terror and a few items(you've already used up) for 2 Antique Mysteries. that's about 1.9 echos per action.
pretty good echos/action but that's quite high risk. less than 1 out of 3 chances of succeeding.
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now if you don't have much of an appetite for risk, 2X of "pretty good odds" should mean an overall chance of ~56.2%, and 1 more action to exchange for 2X Collated Research. that's only about 1.33 echos per action.
not very efficient for a POSI, but it is a cheap and fast way to get Collated Research for only 3 actions UNLESS you get unlucky. but if you already have lots of Tales of Terror and Appalling Secrets sitting around, converting in Bazaar Sidestreets is far more sensible than dealing with almost 50/50 odds.
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edit: the recorded results for the luck challenges ,for 3 of the "pretty good odds" tests in fidgeting writer does suggest it should be about 75% each.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AswToOataxZxdFBpQm5rT1ZNOTRSd0lGZGhwb3hPN3c&richtext=true#gid=1
edited by Paya Danceswithporngroove Chin on 2/5/2014
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Mordaine Barimen
Posts: 670
2/5/2014
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I'm not sure if I've seen anything with a better rate than the following: Announce "a Spot of Hunting" during the endgame of the "Big Rat" storyline- zero chance of failure, nets you +3CP Running Battle, 3 Secluded Addresses, and +1CP Scandal. When you have enough Running Battle, cash in on a duel with Chi Lan for 3000 Rostygold.
Lather rinse repeat. You will have to manage Scandal some, but the Tomb Colonies are pretty gentle, really.
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Nigel Overstreet
Posts: 1220
2/6/2014
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Paya Chin wrote:
assuming "pretty good odds" is 75% chance of success,
Not a safe assumption. 70% is probably more accurate.
Vyrlokar added up a good number of results here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/pub?key=0AlbwjlynOB13dDQtelhZdm9LQlpJQ1JXa0FnMlFPamc&single=true&gid=6&output=html
In my experience, that list is extremely liberal in it's calculations.
However, using those calculations, you would get about 44 Antique Mysteries for 100 Tales of Terror. This will cost you 100 Tales of Terror, 71 Visions of the Surface, 100 Correspondence Plaques, 72 Brilliant Souls and 257 actions.
So you would gain 550 Echoes worth of Antique Mysteries. Minus the 171.5 Echoes worth of items you're burning, that's 1.47 Echoes per action and that's if you already have the materials.
While that's not nothing, it's about on par with Affair of the Box and it's a far cry from your 1.9 estimate.
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Cordial
Posts: 36
2/6/2014
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Would you be willing to detail your calculations a little further, Nigel Overstreet? I think I've messed up somewhere, but I can't figure out where.
5 possible final results for each cycle:
chance of getting Royal Beth: 0.6155*0.7227*0.7069*0.7123, wins you 25E minus 3.02E in items paid to advance over 5 actions
losing at 4th luck check: (1-0.6155)*0.7227*0.7069*0.7123, loses 3E in items paid over 4 actions
losing 3rd: (1-0.7227)*0.7069*0.7123 for -2E over 3 actions
losing 2nd: (1-0.7069)*0.7123 for -1E over 2 actions
losing 1st: 1-0.7123 for -0.5E over 1 action
Weighted average of actions needed for one cycle = summa(prob of [result] * actions needed for [result]) = 0.6155*0.7227*0.7069*0.7123*5+(1-0.6155)*0.7227*0.7069*0.7123*4+(1-0.7227)*0.7069*0.7123*3+(1-0.7069)*0.7123*2+1-0.7123*1 = 2.803701158
Percentage of total actions that culminate in [result] if you try repeatedly back to back = prob of type * actions needed for that type / average per cycle for all types
% culminating in Mysteries: 0.6155*0.7227*0.7069*0.7123*5/2.803701158 = .399434268
% culminating in losing at 4th luck check: (1-0.6155)*0.7227*0.7069*0.7123*4/2.803701158 = .19961979,
% 3rd: .149403348, % 2nd: .148928233, % 1st: .10261436
Total echo/action ratio = summa(proportion of your actions spent on [result] * average return per action for [result])
= .399434268*4.396+.19961979*-0.75+.149403348*-0.666666667+(.148928233+.10261436)*-0.5
= 1.380E/action
Assuming you always try for Antique Mysteries, and your results match the exact percentages at the top of that spreadsheet.
ETA: Removed some infelicities of language.
edited by Cordial on 2/6/2014
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Sackville
Posts: 295
2/6/2014
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Nigel, don't forget the 22 actions to actually turn those FW items into mysteries! That brings it down to ~1.36, and if we round those odds to .7, .7, .7, and .6 we're down again to ~1.26 (and personally, the last time I tried the FW, with my admittedly small sample, I got much closer to 40% on Deals with a Devil than the 60% people seem to expect).
Anyway, I might as well throw my own spreadsheet into the mix. There's no empirical data here, but you can tweak the odds to whatever you think is appropriate and the math ought to be sound.
The calculations have also been done for cashing out at each level, so in that fourth row of numbers for example I've replaced my rounded odds with Vyrlokar's empirical data, and the result is quite close to what Nigel got.
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