kaqqao
Posts: 22
9/1/2013
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Example: I managed to fail a 58% challenge 11 consecutive times. The chances for this happening are 0.00717%. I don't think anyone is this unlucky. Something must be horribly wrong with the math in the game.
Do you have similar observations?
edited by kaqqao on 9/1/2013
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kaqqao in Fallen London
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Alexis Kennedy
Posts: 1374
9/13/2013
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In the interests of transparency I've pasted the relevant code snippet below. I trust this will reassure everyone involved and end the matter.
originalResult=Random.Next(lowerBound,upperBound+1);
return MischievouslyAlterResult(originalResult, GlobalMalevolenceLevel, NSAInstructionSet, User.NexPurchasedInLifetime,User.HasEverComplainedOnTwitterAboutMe);
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+17
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Flyte
Administrator
Posts: 671
9/13/2013
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kaqqao wrote:
I've *never* so far had 10+ consecutive *successes* in anything with probability below 85% or so. Instead, I think there's either a hidden factor or the pseudorandom number generator used for the game could have a better implementation. My honest response is one of the following:
- Your luck is genuinely terrible, but this is nothing to do with Fallen London. You are being punished because you recited the Diamond Sutra with insufficient frequency in your previous lives. I urge you to walk the eightfold path, before you are incarnated as a sheep or flesh-eating toad oracle.
- I ate a raw octopus while muttering imprecations against you (backwards and in Korean, although these things were optional, and really only done as a homage to Pink Floyd and Park Chan-wook). This allowed me to steal your luck, which however turned out to be terrible, for the reason given above. I would be grateful if you would take it back by the most expeditious means at your disposal.
- The Fallen London random number generator has been compromised by the NSA, for reasons of national security. Failbetter know this, but have of course been silenced. As evidence, I adduce the absence of references to pressure cookers or fertiliser in Fallen London, which lack, as I firmly believe, impinges on the awareness of perspicacious players every day.
- The odds of succeeding ten times in a row on an 85% challenge are nearly one in five, and you have probably done so several times without noticing. Failbetter's RNG is almost certainly adequate and impartial, and has not been incited against you by a rogue intern or the first gloamy gleam of a new machine malevolence.
edited by Flyte on 9/13/2013
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+13
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Alexis Kennedy
Posts: 1374
9/13/2013
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The random number generator we use is the bog-standard C# one (System.Random). We do absolutely nothing unusual with it, and there are hundreds of thousands of other applications over two decades that use it in the same way. If that maths is broken, it's the fault of either Microsoft, God or physics. (There was a time when the first two were much more similar entities, but that time is long past.
So, I'm sorry: you've just been unlucky. The only thing I can add to the excellent. explanations below is to say, think of it this way: there are something like fifty million of these rolls made every month. If that didn't throw up some streaks of appalling luck, then it would be a remarkably benign RNG. I get about one mail every two months on this: you're not alone.
edited by Alexis on 9/13/2013
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Diptych
Administrator
Posts: 3493
9/13/2013
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I'm amazed that Alexis left out the code referencing the rat counter. And that Spacemarine9 left out mentioning being amazed that Alexis left out the code referencing the rat counter.
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Sir Frederick, the Libertarian Esotericist. Lord Hubris, the Bloody Baron.
Juniper Brown, the Ill-Fated Orphan. Esther Ellis-Hall, the Fashionable Fabian.
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Spacemarine9
Posts: 2234
9/13/2013
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Oh, come on. That's obviously not the real code snippet.
It's missing the reference for the prototype sentient AI which analyses your current position and gives you the result which would be least convenient. Don't think I don't know about it.
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my rats will blot out the sun
Ratgames
FL lore/mechanics questions and answers
#FallenLondon IRC (irc.synirc.net) Channel! Click to join via Mibbit.
#SunlessSea IRC channel! Like the above, but zee-ier.
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serguma
Posts: 65
9/1/2013
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That is how randomness works.
The chance to fail doesn't decrease each time, you have the same chance to fail after each consecutive attempt.
But well, while the chances for that exact combination (11 times in a row) are low, consider this:
If we simplify things and assume a 50% success chance, the odds of failing 11 times in a row are the same as the odds of failing 10 times in a row and then succeeding one, or for that matter any UNIQUE combination of successes/failures.
But yes, I get it can be frustrating, I just failed a similar number of times in a row.
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http://fallenlondon.storynexus.com/Profile/serguma
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