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Guide to Arbor Messages in this topic - RSS

Jolanda Swan
Jolanda Swan
Posts: 1584

8/27/2019
I love the new content - love it so much I am mostly wandering around Arbor trying to discover new options. Imagine my surprise then, when I realized other players have A Plan! And making echoes out of it!
So, I have to ask... what exactly are we doing in Arbor, mechanics-wise? How does the city work? And has anyone so far reached the third city?

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phryne
phryne
Posts: 1255

8/27/2019
Like you, I mostly just wander around and play whatever opportunities arise. The layout of the city (or cities) is easy enough to remember after a few visits: both Near and Far Arbor are divided into five "sections": Centre, North, Temple, South, Palace. North is where the Embassies are in both cities. Walking further North brings you to the Temple, while by walking South you eventually end up at the Palace.

The wiki has a good overview for each section and the available actions there. I mostly use them when I'm short on Attar and looking for the nearest opportunity to gain some.

Near Arbor
Temple
North
Centre
South
Palace

Far Arbor
Temple
North
Centre
South
Palace

I'm sure some people have already figured out the most profitable course of actions. I'll leave it to them to make a more in-depth guide. For my part, I refuse to think about money in dreams wink
edited by phryne on 8/27/2019

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dov
dov
Posts: 2572

10/2/2019
Loyal Lou wrote:
Except in Flash Lay grinding, you absolutely must do those two actions. They are counted as part of the grind

Sure, but that makes for an inaccurate comparison of the numbers. For example, I could say that my "go to grind" is the Affair of the Box, so I'd be spending those 7 actions on something else *anyway*, so might as well claim that the Arbor grind doesn't cost me any actions at all (infinite EPA).

It's tricky, comparing EPA of different activities which cost different numbers of actions. You can't subtract some of the cost of one method from the cost of the other one. You need to analyze each separately, and then make the proper modifications to account for the difference in the number of actions.

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edited by dov on 10/2/2019

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Tyrconnell
Tyrconnell
Posts: 262

8/28/2019
If all you want is to maximize money, spying on the embassy is probably the best bet. There are faster deck refreshes, but even with an optimized deck the cards aren't going to get you more than 5 EPA, and in fact most will be considerably less.

If you'd rather stay indefinitely, you can spy on the embassy in the north, investigate the Near-Arbori in the south for more Permission to Linger, and loop that indefinitely for some extra Extraordinary Implications and arbitrarily high Permission to Linger. Eventually you can spend that Permission on Attar, then spend the Attar profitably in Far Arbor.

The exact chance of the rare/alternate success of gifting Attar to the queen isn't clear, but it's somewhere around 20-30%, probably. The total EPA well above 3 if you're willing to stay in Arbor and keep shuttling items around forever.

--
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Amalgamate
Amalgamate
Posts: 355

8/29/2019
Here's my attempts to figure out the EPA of some of these paths...

I believe going to Arbor to spy on the embassy gives an EPA of about 3.57. It's 2 actions to get in and out, 5 actions to get 10 extraordinary implications, so average EPA is 10*2.5/7 = 3.57.

"Looping" between investigating the near-arbori and spying on the embassy it gives a maximal EPA of 1.875. Ignoring travel time, you spend four actions to gain 3 permission to linger for 3 implications, then trade 3 permission for 6 implications. A net gain of 3 implications over 4 actions, so EPA 1.875. Of course, to get close to that you'd have to do it A LOT of implications at a time, so that the cost of traveling between the two places is negligible. This EPA isn't that good compared to expeditions in the forgotten quarter, so I don't think there's value in staying in Arbor indefinitely to do this.

Still need to figure out the EPA of investigating near-arbori -> trading that all for attar -> gifting it to the queen, or of becoming a serpent-tender -> gifting to the queen..., or of walking the walls->gifting to queen...

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Amalgamate
Amalgamate
Posts: 355

8/29/2019
"Walking the walls for attar lots of times -> gifting to the queen":

Gathering attar: you get 9 attar for 7 actions. (1 action to get in, 5 to gather attar, 1 to leave, but you lose 1 attar every time you reenter.) Then there's trading it to the queen... we don't know exactly what the probability of trading it all in at once is, but whatever it is, it means there's on average some number of actions to trade in ALL your attar for favors, regardless of how much it is. So lets say you do the gathering in huge swaths at a time, so that the actions to navigate between the centre and the temple, and to trade in the attar, is negligible... so then you get 1 favor in high places per 3 attar. So your limit is 3 favors (37.5 echoes) per 7 actions, so 5.35 EPA.

...of course, how close you can get to this depends on how many actions it takes to cash in everything. The cost to cash in is both the actions to get from centre to palace and back, the actions to trade in attar for favors 3 at a time until you get the rare success, gathering more attar to get into far arbor after you've cashed in once. The EPA is G*(12.5*3/7)/(G+C), where G is the number of actions you spend Gathering attar and C is the number of actions it takes to Cash in all your attar. As an example, if we say you spend 100 actions gathering attar and it takes 10 to cash it in, the EPA would end up 4.87. If you spend 1000 actions gathering attar and it takes 50 to cash it in, the EPA is 5.1.

I don't know exactly how many actions C is, it depends on the rare success probability and on how many actions it takes to get between the two places and get back to far-arbor amounts of attar. But it seems like if you're going for the long term, just spend all your time gathering attar by walking the walls and cash in only at the last possible moment, you'll get decently close to ~5 EPA.

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My profile is at http://www.fallenlondon.com/Profile/amalgamate .

Social invitations of all kinds welcome, especially games of chess, deadly sparring, and plant battles! Let me know if you need help with nightmares; I'm always happy for any social actions which increase my nightmares. Or give me Sudden Insights.
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dov
dov
Posts: 2572

8/29/2019
Without spending actions and resources (Extraordinary Implications) to remain longer in Arbor (i.e., raise Permission to Linger), you're limited to 5 actions per card draw. And since you need a high number of actions to make travel actions (and regular successes with the Queen) to be negligible, this means you'd have to play this strategy over thousands of card-draws. Being a standard frequency card, you'll see it every few days on average. So this isn't a viable grinding strategy.

Going with the strategy of Increasing Permission to Linger as needed to remain in Arbor for however long you want the grind to continue gives 3.125 EPA (which you *can* grind as much as you want when drawing the card once).

FYI - going in with pre-existing Extraordinary Implications to spend gives ~4.26 EPA (though this strategy is limited by your existing stash of Implications you can spare).


Also, regarding the rare success: for those interested, I'm tracking down this number, and for now I've received this rare success 18 out of 78 attempts, which is ~23%. These numbers are still too low to draw any statistically sound conclusions, but I'll keep working on it.

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edited by dov on 8/29/2019

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dov
dov
Posts: 2572

9/2/2019
Skinnyman wrote:
dov wrote:
The persistent strategy, of course, lets you decide how many actions to invest (no limit), and the average will be 3.125 EPA.

The "only Walk the Walls" strategy only fully pays after many card draws, which could take months (or years, if you want to raise Attar to thousands).
Maybe I got something wrong, but cashing in every 3 cards puts you to 3.767. Maybe I missed some Attar/Permission loss on the way.

I was referencing the proposed ideal 5 EPA strategy, which relies on collecting a lot of Attar before gifting to the Queen.

I haven't run the numbers on all options, though. If by "cashing in every 3 cards" you mean collect Attar for 2 cards and then try to cash in (since it's not guaranteed), let's check it out:

Card #1: Go into Near-Arbor, Explore the market 3 times, enter Far-Arbor, Walk the Walls twice and then leave.
Total 8 actions (because of the travel to Far-Arbor), Attar: 10

Card #2:Go directly to Far-Arbor (I'm assuming(!) no extra action cost here), but lose one Attar when entering. Walk the Walls 5 times and leave.
Total 7 actions, Attar: 19

Card #3: Go south twice and start gifting Attar to the Queen. If you're unlucky, you'll need to continue in the next card draw:
This is trickier to calculate. Assuming 20% for the rare success, you'll need 5 attempt on average to get the rare success. You only have enough Attar to do this action 5 times before this option locks for you.

Absolutely best case scenario (20% chance): Succeed on first attempt, converting your 19 Attar into 6 x Favours in High Places. You'll move to Near-Arbor with still 1 x Permission to Linger . You can use that to move North (and spend yet one more travel action point next round to get to the Center and start fresh). One more action to leave (total 7). But since we now know you'll lose an action the next time around, you'll actually get less Attar than 10 in that first card draw.

Total EPA of best case: 75 Echoes over 22 actions = ~3.41 EPA.

Of course, that's the best case (20% chance). We'll need to write a simulation to get the real average. But it will certainly be lower than 3.767 EPA.

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dov
dov
Posts: 2572

9/3/2019
Dudebro Pyro wrote:
So if I'm getting this right, and using ballpark figures: in 30 card draws, you get 300 Permission. Assuming a perfectly spherical Arbor in a frictionless vacuum, that's 600 Attar (more realistically that would be more like 586, but let's ignore that for now). On the other hand, purely Walking the Walls instead of gathering implications will give 300 Attar over the same 30 cards. That makes the EI strategy give almost double the EPC!
Another way to look at it: only Walking the Walls gives 600 Attar in about 60 cards and 420-ish actions (I think?... the script from rahv7 on reddit, corrected for a constant 5 actions per cash-in, gives 475 total, but on the other hand it should take 7 actions per card for 60 cards), while this method takes around 620 actions for the same but in almost half as many cards.
I'd honestly take an EPA approaching 4 over an EPA approaching 5.25 but requiring double the card draws. (Assuming the fully persistant strategy isn't used for whatever reason, of course.)

Also, I've been able to draw it a few times per day so far (until I went and moved there permanently, and stopped drawing cards), so unless I've been having unreal luck, I'd say 30 cards is more a matter of weeks rather than months (with a properly maintained deck).

From my own observation, you've been lucky with the card draws. I've managed to draw the card twice in one day, but I've also seen more than a week go by without seeing it. I'd say twice a week to be a decent average for a standard-frequency card.

And you're right that 4 EPA over 30 cards is better (or, at least more practical) than 5 EPA over 60 cards. But I'd argue that even the "naive" 3.57 EPA approach (just get Implications and forget about Attar) is probably more practical/useful, since it pays off immediately and not after weeks/months.



I need to sit down when I have some time and write a normal guide for the wiki on this...

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Want a sip of Hesperidean Cider? Send me a request in-game. Here's an_ocelot's guide how.
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dov
dov
Posts: 2572

9/25/2019
How do you get to 7.4 EPA?

Basically, this is about using the first X card draws to raise Attar and then gift to the queen until hitting the rare success.

Raising Attar: 9X Attar over 7X actions.

Gifting to the queen: currently recorded success rate is ~22%. So let's assume that on average you'll get it on the fifth attempt, which means on average you'll need one card draw for this step: 3X Favours (worth 37.5X Echoes) over 7 actions.

Given high enough values of X, we can ignore the fixed 7 actions of gifting to the queen. The max theoretical EPA of this is 37.5X / 7X = ~5.35

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edited by dov on 9/25/2019

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Want a sip of Hesperidean Cider? Send me a request in-game. Here's an_ocelot's guide how.
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Optimatum
Optimatum
Posts: 3550

9/25/2019
They're saying that, as part of Flash Lay grinding, the two actions spent to enter and exit are equivalent to the two actions otherwise spent on refreshing the deck. That way you get 9 Attar for effectively 5 actions, which approaches 7.5 EPA.

--
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D
D
Posts: 31

8/27/2019
I wandered till I had mapped the entire place. Now, since I've pretty much checked out every area, my usual dip is to stay in the furthest southern area. If you have enough Attar to be in Far Arbor when you get there, immediately trade it all to the Roseate Queen for FiHP, if you don't have enough to be in Far Arbor, immediately do Serpent Tending and trade all your Permission to Linger for Attar. Either way, it's 2-3 actions for a deck refill, and usually 2 FiHP every other draw. There are almost certainly more profitable ways to go about it (in particular I suspect staying in Near Arbor and farming Extraordinary Implications may have a better EPA, at the cost of more actions before you drop out of Arbor and refill your deck), but this is minimal effort.

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Optimatum
Optimatum
Posts: 3550

8/28/2019
I think the ideal monetary strategy, barring cashing in on Extraordinary Implications you already own, is to hang out in Far Arbor and walk the walls every time you visit, slowly building up Attar. Eventually you trade it all in at once via the queen, as doing it in large enough batches makes the action costs for travel, switching Arbors, and cashing in negligible. For more immediate profit, grind Extraordinary Implications in Near Arbor, which is less efficient long-term but has the advantage of giving the profit up front. (And of course, since Arbor is a full deck refresh, make sure to draw all your other cards before entering.)

Either way, I'd recommend fully exploring Arbor before worrying about optimizing it. I believe the third city refers to Arbor's physical location in the Elder Continent, which is not accessible through our dream travels, but I could be wrong!

--
Optimatum, a ruthless and merciful gentleman. No plant battles, Affluent Photographer requests, or healing offers; all other social actions welcome.

Want a sip of Cider? Just say hi! Christmas Cards appreciated though, especially the Fogscape with Tentacles.

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