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A Comprehensive Election 1897 Survey (Second Week) Messages in this topic - RSS

Azothi
Azothi
Posts: 527

7/22/2019
For all voters, let your voice be heard, and hear the voices of your peers by being a part of the Comprehensive Election 1897 Survey! You can find the survey here.

And what good is an Election for, if not to test the strength and validity of our polls?

One year ago, our unofficial survey was conducted with 330 responses, with insights and analysis released in the week following the Election. This year, it's been refined with a more user-friendly layout, improved questions, and a form more pleasing to the eye. The survey has also been expanded with optional questions for roleplayers making decisions in-character.

This survey should take around 2-5 minutes to complete. If you're still undecided, feel free to wait until you're committed to your cause - the second week brings new revelations and twists. If you have multiple characters, you're welcome to fill out one for each. We aim for accuracy, but remember that this survey is not necessarily a representative sample of the Fallen London population: we won't know the victor until the end.

This survey is anonymous, but you and you alone can change your answers if you change your mind before the end. Save the link after you submit your survey labeled "Edit your response" and you can use that to update your form at any time.

For those interested in seeing preliminary results as the week goes along, you can view those here.

--
Azoth I, the Amaranthine Wanderer - Midnighter - A Paramount Presence (not currently accepting new Proteges)
Away to where the Chain cannot bind us.
Hesperidean.
+5 link
Jolanda Swan
Jolanda Swan
Posts: 1444

7/22/2019
That was fun!

--
Lover of all things beautiful, secret admirer of ugly truths, fond of the Parabola Sun... and always delighted to role play.
http://fallenlondon.com/profile/Jolanda%20Swan
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Lady Sapho Byron
Lady Sapho Byron
Posts: 725

7/22/2019
Excellent survey Azothi, I look forward to the results and analysis!

--
http://fallenlondon.com/Profile/Lady%20Sapho%20L%20Byron
Fighting the Menace of Corsetry Since 1892.
+1 link
Vorwoda Hawksby
Vorwoda Hawksby
Posts: 16

7/22/2019
Excellent poll! Thank you very much!

--
Ambition: Nemesis
My darling lady-love,
Lies cruelly slain above;
To track her unknown killer I've descended,
To London, in the Neath.
And though I pass Hell's teeth,
I'll see her slayer's foul existence ended!
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Doctor_Static
Doctor_Static
Posts: 55

7/24/2019
Much Appreciated - Extravagant Excellence - Excelsoir and Encore !! -
- (Yggdrasil "Drazzle" Fawlty Psmyth) -
.
edited by Doctor_Static on 7/24/2019
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Tsar Koschei
Tsar Koschei
Posts: 142

7/24/2019
If these results are to be trusted/taken as representative, it looks like we're in for a Virginia landslide.

--
https://www.fallenlondon.com/profile/Tsar%20Koschei

No chess, loitering, friendly sparring, coffee at Caligula's or Affluent Photographer, please.
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Azothi
Azothi
Posts: 527

7/26/2019
For determining how representative this sample is (currently at a size of 303), there are a few points for and against its reliability worth noting:

FOR
  • Huffam's poll results line up with in-game descriptions. The first three polls are all led by Virginia, followed by Plenty, and lastly with Shoshana. Importantly, Huffam's polls are very poor predictors of Shoshana's performance.

  • Among the (currently) 138 reported participants in Election 1895, the results match Failbetter's, with a slight overrepresentation of Dauntless supporters (23% vs 21%) that lowers the respective shares of both Implacable (32% vs 33%) and Feducci (44% vs 45%).

AGAINST
  • Self-reported Tier 3 professions make up nearly 2/3 of the sample, and only 18.2% reported as having no Notability, indicating that the survey consists primarily of Persons of Some Importance, thereby not accurately reflecting the opinions of newer players with less experience with these candidates.

  • Support for the Contrarian is overrepresented in Election 1896 (61% vs 48%).

Essentially, determining to what extent the survey represents the population is only something that we can do in hindsight with Failbetter's officially released statistics; there is both reason to be optimistic and pessimistic about your preferred candidate.

(And this is an obligatory bump for those who haven't yet filled out the survey)

--
Azoth I, the Amaranthine Wanderer - Midnighter - A Paramount Presence (not currently accepting new Proteges)
Away to where the Chain cannot bind us.
Hesperidean.
+4 link
Diptych
Diptych
Administrator
Posts: 3402

7/26/2019
I'm keen to see what patterns emerge in terms of people's preferred candidate from year to year. I mean, there must be people who out there who supported both the Bishop and Virginia, I suppose, but were there many?
edited by Diptych on 7/26/2019

--
Sir Frederick, the Libertarian Esotericist. Lord Hubris, the Bloody Baron.
Juniper Brown, the Ill-Fated Orphan. Esther Ellis-Hall, the Fashionable Fabian.
+1 link
Doctor_Static
Doctor_Static
Posts: 55

7/26/2019
- Azothi - excellent analysis! - Further, as to ""For determining how representative this sample is (currently at a size of 303)..."" - That is what ratio to the whole citizenry? - What numbers might one tally the 'active' population of Neathly London - I'm assuming there might be many solo-play or epic play members that eshew the social / electoral scene - There are such hidden depths, and braided layers to this fractal kaleidescopic narrative-causal gameworld / milleau - that it's vastness is never truly appearant until apotheosis levels of play.. . . But, not to boggle and blather - How does the polling scale, overall? ((Definitely think your clarification might be appended to the magnificent google-docs version of the poll result pie-charts)) . . .

-:- Drazzle Psmyth -:-


-:- VOTE SHOSHANA - FOR FUTURE AND FORTUNE !! -:-
.
edited by Doctor_Static on 7/26/2019
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Azothi
Azothi
Posts: 527

7/26/2019
Doctor_Static wrote:
- Azothi - excellent analysis! - Further, as to ""For determining how representative this sample is (currently at a size of 303)..."" - That is what ratio to the whole citizenry? - What numbers might one tally the 'active' population of Neathly London - I'm assuming there might be many solo-play or epic play members that eshew the social / electoral scene - There are such hidden depths, and braided layers to this fractal kaleidescopic narrative-causal gameworld / milleau - that it's vastness is never truly appearant until apotheosis levels of play.. . . But, not to boggle and blather - How does the polling scale, overall?
Only Failbetter knows.

--
Azoth I, the Amaranthine Wanderer - Midnighter - A Paramount Presence (not currently accepting new Proteges)
Away to where the Chain cannot bind us.
Hesperidean.
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Doctor_Static
Doctor_Static
Posts: 55

7/26/2019
. . . Ahhh - OK - Thanks, much.
smile
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Tsar Koschei
Tsar Koschei
Posts: 142

7/26/2019
Azothi, do you suppose you could compile the results by first dividing respondents by chosen candidate, then adding together the notability and election career progress of all the respondents in each candidate group respectively, and finally calculating percentages of the total number of "support points" for each candidate, so we could compare their actual relative support?

--
https://www.fallenlondon.com/profile/Tsar%20Koschei

No chess, loitering, friendly sparring, coffee at Caligula's or Affluent Photographer, please.
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Azothi
Azothi
Posts: 527

7/26/2019
Tsar Koschei wrote:
Azothi, do you suppose you could compile the results by first dividing respondents by chosen candidate, then adding together the notability and election career progress of all the respondents in each candidate group respectively, and finally calculating percentages of the total number of "support points" for each candidate, so we could compare their actual relative support?
This is something I plan on doing as part of the analysis once the Election is over, but I already had all the data processing set up, so here's a sneak peek.
[spoiler]
If it looks like there's not really any change, you'd be right.[/spoiler](Remember, the basic disclaimer that this is not necessarily a representative sample still applies.)

--
Azoth I, the Amaranthine Wanderer - Midnighter - A Paramount Presence (not currently accepting new Proteges)
Away to where the Chain cannot bind us.
Hesperidean.
0 link
Tsar Koschei
Tsar Koschei
Posts: 142

7/26/2019
Great, thanks! So yeah, tracks very well with the result just based on candidate choice.

--
https://www.fallenlondon.com/profile/Tsar%20Koschei

No chess, loitering, friendly sparring, coffee at Caligula's or Affluent Photographer, please.
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Raccoonajr
Raccoonajr
Posts: 67

7/27/2019
Thanks for setting up the survey. Lots of fun!

--
http://fallenlondon.com/Profile/Raccoonajr
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JaneAnkhVeos
JaneAnkhVeos
Posts: 54

7/27/2019
(The polls are wrong. The polls are wrong.)

Interesting results. Also thanks for reminding me to play The Silver Tree.
+4 link
Winthropx
Winthropx
Posts: 83

7/28/2019
I’m curious about how the Paramount Presences of Fallen London are voting. For no other reason then academic curiosity, of course.

--
Bishop Winthrop, a kind-hearted soul
A Paramount Presence
I accept all social actions
His Appearance
http://community.failbettergames.com/topic9363-your-characters-appearances.aspx?messageid=229809&Page=10#post#post229809
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Azothi
Azothi
Posts: 527

7/29/2019
Today's the day! This is a last push for anyone who hasn't filled the survey out yet to do so. More data is always appreciated.

--
Azoth I, the Amaranthine Wanderer - Midnighter - A Paramount Presence (not currently accepting new Proteges)
Away to where the Chain cannot bind us.
Hesperidean.
+1 link
Jolanda Swan
Jolanda Swan
Posts: 1444

7/29/2019
I am a bit startled by the results of the survey in the following regard. Most people choose magnanimous as their most defining quirk - and yet most vote for Virginia or Feducci.
I am by no means implying that you cannot be good-hearted AND vote for them, but... I would love it if some magnanimous gentleperson, who voted in this manner, explained how they combined their support for Feducci, with their inclination towards magnanimity.
Again, I am not being holier-than-thou. I am curious.
edited by Jolanda Swan on 7/29/2019

--
Lover of all things beautiful, secret admirer of ugly truths, fond of the Parabola Sun... and always delighted to role play.
http://fallenlondon.com/profile/Jolanda%20Swan
+4 link
Azothi
Azothi
Posts: 527

7/29/2019
Jolanda Swan wrote:
I am a bit startled by the results of the survey in the following regard. Most people choose magnanimous as their most defining quirk - and yet most vote for Virginia or Feducci.
I am by no means implying that you cannot be good-hearted AND vote for them, but... I would love it if some magnanimous gentleperson, who voted in this manner, explained how they combined their support for Feducci, with their inclination towards magnanimity.
Again, I am not being holier-than-thou. I am curious.
edited by Jolanda Swan on 7/29/2019
For fun, I decided to look into the numbers a bit. A total of 23 responses reported listing "Magnanimous" as one of their character's defining quirks while also reporting voting for Feducci; this is just over one third of the total reported support for Feducci, which surprised me as well, and I too would like someone to answer this question.

(As a Dauntless campaigner back in 1895, though, I've stated that my reasons for choosing Dauntless then are the same for choosing Virginia now; and I'm happy to note that despite our fewer numbers, former Dauntless supporters report the highest levels of magnanimity of any 1895 candidate.)

--
Azoth I, the Amaranthine Wanderer - Midnighter - A Paramount Presence (not currently accepting new Proteges)
Away to where the Chain cannot bind us.
Hesperidean.
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