This is the place to discuss playing the game. Find tips, debate the best places to find certain items and share advice.
Optimizing Silken Thread Expeditions
Optimatum
Posts: 3666
6/7/2019
|
By now, it's widely known that expeditions to the Tomb of the Silken Thread are one of the most profitable grinds available in the game. There's some debate around the precise profit, or how it compares to other grinds, but in general everyone accepts that Docks Favours are ideal and Strong-Backed Labour is the next best thing. However, there's very little analysis looking beyond which resource is used to buy supplies.
I want to compare not only the different sources of Expedition Supplies, but also the effects of different sources of those items. Expeditions are difficult to model statistically, so I've written a script to simulate expeditions, which can be found here. The script includes comparisons of all the reasonable ways of grinding Supplies I could think of. (If you have suggestions to improve the code or logic, please share.) Assumptions are as follows:
- The player has enough Watchful to guarantee success on all Watchful checks.
- The player has at least 39 supplies at the start of each expedition, so can always confront the rival if needed.
- Confronting a rival is rare enough that the Absinthe cost does not require grinding and can be treated as a flat echo cost.
- Confronting a rival is rare enough that the Nightmares gain is irrelevant and is dealt with by Time, the Healer.
- The player optimizes their choice of expedition action to both not overshoot the goal and maximize possible value from "A sign?".
- Rostygold costs do not require grinding and can be treated as flat echo costs. (Using the Regretful Soldier option on A Visit gives large quantities of rats, which can be efficiently exchanged for Rostygold at the Department of Menace Eradication.)
Notable results:
- Strong-Backed Labour is about 2.269 EPA.
- Docks Favours are 4.768 EPA if obtained for free, and other card sources are well above 4 EPA at worst.
- Whispered Hints that the player has on hand are 2.790 EPA.
- Trading owned Jade, Amber, or Rostygold* for Hints via the Tiger-Keeper is 2.609 EPA.
- Grinding Jade or Rostygold at court and trading it for Hints is 2.132 EPA.
- Sources that give 150 Hints per action, including various cards, are 2.207 EPA. Hints become better than SBL at 160 Hints per action.
- The Respectable Landeau card gives bonus Appalling Secrets and comes to 2.478 EPA.
* I haven't decided whether using Rostygold for Hints is worthwhile. Because trading rats for Rostygold scales in profit with the number of rats owned, and A Visit provides rats faster than expeditions and Docks Favours consume Rostygold, it might be better to just ignore the Tiger-Keeper for higher rat-to-Rostygold trade efficiency. Thoughts?
edited by Optimatum on 6/7/2019
--
Optimatum, a ruthless and merciful gentleman. No plant battles, Affluent Photographer requests, or healing offers; all other social actions welcome.
 Want a sip of Cider? Just say hi!
PM me for information enigmatic or Fated. Though the forum please, not FL itself.
|
|
|
+8
link
|
Optimatum
Posts: 3666
6/7/2019
|
Kittenpox wrote:
Quick question - Does the on-hand Whispered Hints calculation include the chance of getting 1x Crate of Expedition Supplies + 1x Map Scrap ?
It does indeed. I have it as a 60% chance.
--
Optimatum, a ruthless and merciful gentleman. No plant battles, Affluent Photographer requests, or healing offers; all other social actions welcome.
Want a sip of Cider? Just say hi!
PM me for information enigmatic or Fated. Though the forum please, not FL itself.
|
|
|
+3
link
|
Tystefy
Posts: 450
6/11/2019
|
I always wanted to know this information but never had the mathematical bravery to find out for myself.
Thank you.
A not-so-quick question: any suggestions on the best way to go about acquiring the items needed to buy expedition supplies (most action-efficient method)?
--
Will sometimes return to post absurdity.
|
|
|
+1
link
|