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Major bug in the card drawing mechanism Messages in this topic - RSS

mp
mp
Posts: 40

1/13/2019
Cards with 2 (or more) unlocking conditions turn out to be 2 (or more) times more likely to be drawn. Now, I know that this is an outlandish claim, but I've procured hard evidence for it, so please bear with me!
Before anything else, I'd like to direct you to this study done previously on the opportunity deck: https://www.reddit.com/r/fallenlondon/comments/50ctcr/card_draw_probabilities_an_exhaustive_study/
It found some highly improbable anomalies in the deck, and - what's relevant here - all the affected cards have 2 unlocking conditions, and the biggest offenders (SMHS...) have 3.

(for the sake of full disclosure, I should note a flaw in this study: "each card progressed through all five slots of the lodging before it was played" - this had a flattening effect on the graph, as any anomalously common/rare cards would spend more/less time in the hand, thus reducing/increasing their draw rate. So, in reality, the anomalies should be expected to be even bigger than what was found out)

Also of relevance is this post by someone who peeked at the source code of the app: https://www.reddit.com/r/fallenlondon/comments/83aocr/opportunity_deck_research/

They've ruled out card mislabeling as unlikely, and also described the drawing mechanism in a way that shows how the bug could be happening: presumably for each condition after the first, a card gets duplicated, and thus gets an additional roll.

Of course, so far this is all circumstantial, which is why I made a series of my own Storynexus experiments with the help of Passionario#5970
You can also verify our results by yourself, in Passionario's Nexus World: http://shenanigans.storynexus.com/s

Phase One: the control
First Card: standard frequency, no unlocks
Second Card: standard frequency, no unlocks
Sample: 100 drawings to a 1-card hand (2 permanent blocker cards were used)
Results: 56 first, 44 second
Conclusion: the world works as expected, no inherent anomalies

Phase Two: main experiment
First Card: standard frequency, no unlocks
Second Card: standard frequency, two unlocks
Sample: 300 drawings to a 1-card hand (2 permanent blocker cards were used)
Results: 108 first, 192 second (interesting partial results: 33:67 and 66:134 - right on the money!)
Conclusion: the bug is real

Phase Three: testing for scaling
First Card: standard frequency, no unlocks
Second Card: standard frequency, ten unlocks (yes, 10 - you can only see 4 in the world 'cos 6 are of the "at most" variety)
Sample: 100 drawings to a 1-card hand (2 permanent blocker cards were used)
Results: 11 first, 89 second
Conclusion: the bug is definitely real AND scales with the number of unlocks

(Also, the Remote Lodgings made things worse for those not using them...)
edited by mp on 1/13/2019

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Flyte
Flyte
Administrator
Posts: 671

1/28/2019
Thanks, this is persuasive. We'll implement a fix for this, but it will be some weeks from now – we're going to need to think a bit about whether to alter any card frequencies at the same time or shortly afterwards, and as a couple of you mentioned, we're a little preoccupied with a certain other game this week...
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mp
mp
Posts: 40

1/23/2019
Just a quick update, 'cos I got an initial reply from the support:
Support wrote:
Thanks for the report and for the thoroughness of your investigations.

I will look into this when I have time.

So they'll look into it, but no ETA (we probably shouldn't expect much 'till Skies are out).
edited by mp on 1/23/2019

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Jolanda Swan
Jolanda Swan
Posts: 1604

10/21/2019
Sigh.
This is what we were talking about on the PSA: Halowmass thread. There is this thread here, waiting for months, with us speculating on whether the bug is fixed or not. And we get an answer from a screengrab from Discord.
I do feel like quite a nag right now, sorry for that.

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mp
mp
Posts: 40

1/28/2019
I've also received a further reply from the Support about the nature of the bug:

Support wrote:

I've had a look at the code and can see where what you have described could happen. You may have seen a response to your forum post - we will look at resolving it but we are currently quite busy at the moment.
The problem manifests somewhere between the database and an ORM layer so this will take a bit of thought regarding how to re-implement. And as you've pointed out, there may be some balancing considerations.


Also,
Skinnyman wrote:

In these tests, does not having a quality count towards card draw rate? For example, does the Amanuensis count for 2 x 80% because it requires to have no obscurity?

Yes, based on the test we did on the Storynexus world, unlocks and locks have the same effect.
edited by mp on 1/28/2019

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Jermaine Vendredi
Jermaine Vendredi
Posts: 563

10/22/2019
Don't feel like that, Jolanda. I'm pretty sure quite a few people here agree with you. This is the most easily accessible forum, straight from the game, and enables the kind of discussion players here want to have.

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Kaijyuu
Kaijyuu
Posts: 1037

1/13/2019
Ah yes, this explains many things, such as Slowcake's showing up commonly despite its listed rarity.

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genesis
genesis
Posts: 920

1/14/2019
Mp, you should file a support ticket with Failbetter. They don’t always read the forums and with something of this magnitude it would be good to have an explicit tab on their awareness of the issue

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mp
mp
Posts: 40

1/14/2019
genesis wrote:
Mp, you should file a support ticket with Failbetter. They don’t always read the forums and with something of this magnitude it would be good to have an explicit tab on their awareness of the issue



I did, even before making this thread!

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Skinnyman
Skinnyman
Posts: 1948

1/28/2019
So it's NOT worth to move to a remote location if:
- you don't know the Struggling Artist AND
- you keep your Nightmares to 0 AND
- you keep your Bohemians favours to 0

I'm ignoring the weasel card as it doesn't have any other requirements and it's at 20% frequency. Should be enough to counter the AP costs to move between the lodgings when needed (if needed).


As many had the luck of meeting the artist, I would recommend to go for a remote location! Entering the Nadir before and right after TtH will surely improve the outcome.

EDIT: As much as I look at retired companions, I think someone may deserve something... rubbery!
edited by Skinnyman on 1/28/2019

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Jolanda Swan
Jolanda Swan
Posts: 1604

9/29/2019
True. I used to keep seven favors at hand, since conflict cards came really often; this is not the case for about a month now. Though it doesn't affect gameplay a lot, I would love a blog post or a forum post detailing the changes.

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Jolanda Swan
Jolanda Swan
Posts: 1604

9/10/2019
I am also not getting the artist as often as I used to (I had already gotten rid of the Devil using Fate at the Feast of the Rose). However, I miss the singer. The MW and the presbyterate paraphrases were helpful.

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Skinnyman
Skinnyman
Posts: 1948

9/11/2019
Was she that good? 3.35 E and 1.8 MW for 2 AP. I admit I used that card a lot of times, but only to a point; after that it didn't seem that useful. Specially after maxing out the connection.

Back to the cards, I see that the conflict cards and Evening Zailing don't show up that much. Alas, maybe it's time to progress the Lab. upset Can't say that I enjoy these changes, but this is how it's mean to be!

--
ESs items and quality requirements sheet. Please check if there are errors or if something is missing
Achievement list if you're feeling bored!
I am accepting Plant battles, Neath's Mysteries card, Starveling Cats and boxed cats.
No suppers, no second chances gain and no need to cure my menaces!
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Jolanda Swan
Jolanda Swan
Posts: 1604

9/11/2019
I admit that getting the two singer cards thrice in a ten-card hand was getting spammy. Now I get all kinds of cards and none too frequently, which feels like an improvement to be sure, as it adds variety to your game. I am missing the Amanuensis and the Singer, but I am happy to draw a truly random hand every time.

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phryne
phryne
Posts: 1257

9/12/2019
I have been living in Remote Addresses exclusively for ages, so I'm not noticing a big difference so far. Intimate of Devils cards might be sliiightly rarer but only very slightly. Amanuensis still turns up quite a lot.

I still quite often experience drawing the same card two or three times in a ten-card-deck. Sometimes this is fine, when it's a useful card, sometimes less so. In any case, it makes drawing seem a tad unbalanced still.

The new Arbor card seems very frequent. I'm not sure this is a good thing. Visiting Arbor shouldn't become daily routine, even for a character who is Ambassador.

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Optimatum
Optimatum
Posts: 3551

9/12/2019
Interestingly, the Arbor card has been fairly rare for me. I usually see it twice a week at most.

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Want a sip of Cider? Just say hi! Christmas Cards appreciated though, especially the Fogscape with Tentacles.

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Vryl
Vryl
Posts: 52

9/15/2019
Jolanda Swan wrote:
I notice that I get to play almost all the cards I get, while I used to discard half the hand. Of course the RNG might be RNG-ing, but I will be very surprised if there haven't been tweaks.




I know I am still discarding the vast majority of cards, so I think that RNG is just RNG-ing. Still, it is nice to not discard a devil who has taken an interest in me three times out of six draws.

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Dudebro Pyro
Dudebro Pyro
Posts: 723

9/3/2019
Amanuensis, definitely. FB did state repeatedly they'd be open to looking over the entire deck from a modern balace point of view, with this change very much being one of the factors that would be looked at, so it's not inconceivable they'd simply make it slightly more frequent to compensate.
The singer, though, is the sole reason I've spent the last couple of years living in a temple carved into a stalagmite. She gives less MW than even simply side-converting.

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Skinnyman
Skinnyman
Posts: 1948

1/28/2019
Flyte wrote:
Thanks, this is persuasive. We'll implement a fix for this, but it will be some weeks from now – we're going to need to think a bit about whether to alter any card frequencies at the same time or shortly afterwards, and as a couple of you mentioned, we're a little preoccupied with a certain other game this week...
It is nice to go shopping with my Noman and have an evening's zailing, but that singer can sometimes... well, you know!

In these tests, does not having a quality count towards card draw rate? For example, does the Amanuensis count for 2 x 80% because it requires to have no obscurity?

--
ESs items and quality requirements sheet. Please check if there are errors or if something is missing
Achievement list if you're feeling bored!
I am accepting Plant battles, Neath's Mysteries card, Starveling Cats and boxed cats.
No suppers, no second chances gain and no need to cure my menaces!
+1 link
NotaWalrus
NotaWalrus
Posts: 183

1/14/2019
Discovering this in the weeks leading up to Sunless Skies's full release means it will likely be a while before this gets fixed, but I hope it does get addressed eventually.
edited by NotaWalrus on 1/14/2019

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