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11/26/2018
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So it didn't occur to me until recently, but come the tail end of my orphan echo grind the process of flogging all my tribute will take somewhere in the ballpark of *twenty four straight days* so I have to ask:
If you leave your professional reward/perks untouched for a week, do they stack up? Or am I gonna have to jet back & forth once a week to avoid losing them?
edited by Isaac Gates on 11/27/2018
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+1
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Optimatum
Posts: 3666
11/27/2018
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Not sure about perks, but the professional reward doesn't stack. You only have to make the trip every other week though, if you time it right: return shortly before TtH, claim your existing payment, TtH hits, claim your new payment, then set sail again.
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+3
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Azothi
Posts: 586
11/27/2018
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Professional perks stack up to 4.
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Azoth I, the Emissary of Cardinals - A Paramount Presence (not currently accepting new Proteges)
Away to where the Chain cannot bind us.
 Hesperidean.
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+3
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dov
Posts: 2580
11/27/2018
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Skinnyman wrote:
Still have some doubts about the new expeditions, but I need to run the numbers just to be sure.
Actually doing the math is always appreciated. It gets complicated due to corner cases (e.g. if "A Sign" appears as the last action in the expedition it might only save you 3 supplies and not 4).
But if you do the math, consider:
- Rhav7's calculations show that you get ~1.98 EPA if you don't encounter "A Sign". Since the expedition itself takes 10 steps, the probability for that is almost 60%.
- Encountering "A Sign" exactly once during those 10 steps has a ~31.5% probability. This gives about ~2.613 EPA (if my math is right), since you save on 4 supplies (actions and material cost).
- This still leaves ~8.5% chance of encountering "A Sign" at least twice during the expedition, and this is where things get even better, because with twice "A Sign" you need only 9 actions to complete the expedition instead of 10. If my math is right, encountering "A Sign" exactly twice during those 9 actions has a probability of ~6.28%, which would give 3.52 EPA.
- This, of course, still leaves a non-insignificant ~2.35% probability to encounter "A Sign" at least 3 times, and so on...
Also notice that you can't just take each of the above EPA numbers, multiply by its probability and add it all together, since each of these events has a different number of actions (the first case is a 23.6 action cycle, the second is a 22 action cycle, the third has 19.4 actions, etc.).
This is why running the simulation hundreds of thousands of times (reddit discussion in the link I've provided above) bypasses that to get to an actual result. I've reviewed the simulation's code and didn't catch any errors, and it consolidates to ~2.27 EPA all said and done, even accounting for the above mentioned corner cases.
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edited by dov on 11/27/2018
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 Want a sip of Hesperidean Cider? Send me a request in-game. Here's an_ocelot's guide how.
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+3
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Azothi
Posts: 586
11/27/2018
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Optimatum wrote:
Azothi wrote:
Professional perks stack up to 4.
But do you get another if you haven't picked up the previous week's professional payment? Yes. Professional perks are added via TTH, whereas professional payments are controlled by the "Earnest of Payment" quality. TTH always sets "Earnest of Payment" to 1, which makes the professional payment storylet visible. Collecting the payment sets it to 0, which makes it invisible regardless of spending perks. On the other hand, TTH increments Professional Perks by 1 until it hits 4, so it behaves more like the Menace reductions than the professional payments.
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Azoth I, the Emissary of Cardinals - A Paramount Presence (not currently accepting new Proteges)
Away to where the Chain cannot bind us.
Hesperidean.
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+2
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dov
Posts: 2580
11/27/2018
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dov wrote:
Actually, expeditions have been shown to be more profitable on average than offering Tribute, if you have the Watchful needed to 100% the Buccaneering approach.
It's about 2.27 EPA vs the 2.22 of offering Tribute at the Court, plus it lets you stay in London.
To clarify: this is about the Tomb of the Silken Thread expedition, getting supplies via buying Strong-Backed Labour at the Bazaar sidestreets.
The trick is that while normally such an approach will only give you ~1.98 EPA, once you factor in encountering A Sign (~40% chance of encountering at least once in a given expedition), the EPA goes much higher, and on average it's ~2.27.
Details are here.
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edited by dov on 11/27/2018
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Want a sip of Hesperidean Cider? Send me a request in-game. Here's an_ocelot's guide how.
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+2
mark as "accepted answer"
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dov
Posts: 2580
11/27/2018
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Actually, expeditions have been shown to be more profitable on average than offering Tribute, if you have the Watchful needed to 100% the Buccaneering approach.
It's about 2.27 EPA vs the 2.22 of offering Tribute at the Court, plus it lets you stay in London.
--
Want a sip of Hesperidean Cider? Send me a request in-game. Here's an_ocelot's guide how.
(Most social actions are welcome. Please no requests to Loiter Suspiciously and no investigations of the Affluent Photographer)
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+1
mark as "accepted answer"
link
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