Jolanda Swan
Posts: 1789
9/6/2018
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I think that the first time you do anything, you get the best possible result, which is quite nice. Then you enter the RNG normally
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Lover of all things beautiful, secret admirer of ugly truths, fond of the Parabola Sun... and always delighted to role play.
http://fallenlondon.com/profile/Jolanda%20Swan
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Dudebro Pyro
Posts: 756
9/6/2018
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Boy am I glad I haven't spent my Regnant Coins on the Judgement Egg yet!
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Dudebro Pyro, eccentric scholar
Spare Starveling Kitties always welcome. I collect them.
For that matter, send me your unwanted cat boxes too.
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Skinnyman
Posts: 2133
9/6/2018
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Dudebro Pyro wrote:
Boy am I glad I haven't spent my Regnant Coins on the Judgement Egg yet!
Thought exactly! Catssss!!! 
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ESs items and quality requirements sheet. Please check if there are errors or if something is missing
Achievement list if you're feeling bored!
I am accepting Plant battles, Neath's Mysteries card, Starveling Cats and boxed cats.
No suppers, no second chances gain and no need to cure my menaces!
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Reused NPC
Posts: 259
9/6/2018
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A Judgement's Egg from the 30-supply story?
I'm... actually really happy about this. Now I can fill my lodgings with 10 more cats guilt-free!
I will add that it feels sorta... fundamentally off to me that these expeditions don't give Unpredictable Treasures like the other two do. I miss those overpriced bags of oddites, dangit...
It's interesting that the results seem to change after the first time; it remains to be seen whether the other expeditions also give such useful items.
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ReusedNPC, a d__ned lunatic.
Edmund Viric, a rather dreamy sort.
"I won't stay long, I shan't stay long! Tell me a secret."
--the Baldomerian
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Barse
Posts: 706
9/6/2018
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Both the Chalcocite Pagoda and the Tomb of the Silken Thread end in Watchful checks that are pretty hard to fail - so of course, I tanked an alt's stats in an attempt to see some failure text.
The Chalcocite Pagoda Failure
The Tomb of the Silken Thread Failure
[spoiler]The reward for the fail-version of the Pagoda is 2x Antique Mysteries and 1x Magnificent Diamond. The reward for the fail-version of the Silken Thread is 1x Parabola Linen.[/spoiler]
I think some enterprising folks from the Discord have put my findings on the wiki already, but the extra lore from the failures is interesting!
EDIT: As the expeditions currently stand, if your Watchful is over 100 it's impossible for you to see these alternate (admittedly slightly worse) results.
edited by Barse on 9/6/2018
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 The Scorched Sailor, up for most social actions and RP. Not as scary as he looks.
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Kaigen
Posts: 530
9/6/2018
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It sounds like the Sanctuary of Crimson Petals expedition simply has two different results, one of which may be more common than the other. If the game was presenting different results based on whether you've done the expedition or not, we would expect to see it assign some quality to the player, since that's usually how the game tracks things like this. Plus, the fact that both outcomes have been reported by people apparently doing the expedition for the first time suggests it's a matter of random chance rather than a deliberate skew. Whether the odds of the different outcomes are roughly even (like the Thieves' Cache expedition having 60/40 odds of giving Glim/Souls) or one outcome is much rarer than the other will take more investigation.
Interestingly, I haven't heard any reports of alternate rewards for The Chocolate Pagoda or the Tomb of the Silken Thread, so those may be more consisent.
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Just a simple doctor with a chess habit. Publisher of The Flit Dispatch.
"One must remember that the impossible is, alas, always possible."
-Jacques Derrida
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Catherine Raymond
Posts: 2518
9/6/2018
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Slyblue wrote:
Lady Sapho Byron wrote:
Heeeeeeeyyyyyy ... wait a minute ... if the
[spoiler]Heroic Archaeologist[/spoiler]
is my rival, what does that make me?
edited by Lady Sapho Byron on 9/5/2018
The Morally Questionable Archeologist?
Possibilities abound. Perhaps the Cowardly Archaeologist? The Sensible Archaeologist?
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Cathy Raymond
http://fallenlondon.com/Profile/cathyr19355
Catherine Raymond aka Mrs. Rykar Malkus http://fallenlondon.com/Profile/Catherine%20Raymond (Gone NORTH)
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Indigo Clardmond
Posts: 60
9/6/2018
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Kaigen wrote:
Interestingly, I haven't heard any reports of alternate rewards for The Chocolate Pagoda or the Tomb of the Silken Thread, so those may be more consisent.
It's nice to know that I'm not the only one who automatically keeps reading "The Chalcocite Pagoda" as "The Chocolate Pagoda" 
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Indigo Clardmond - A kind-hearted Notary that is also a member of the C.V.R. And good friend to the Rubberies. And close to the Urchins. A gentleman of many talents. He is most definitely not secretly an imp of an existential nature. That would just be silly.
Vazio Solus - A broken, bitter Correspondent with a sick relationship to the Truth. Defiant to all, even in the end, as the Gate was opened.
The Luminous Orphan - A dazzling young Doctor of legendary charisma, weaving powerful Celestial imagery while she studies the form...'a star' would certainly be an appropriate way to describe her.
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MrEvil135
Posts: 39
9/6/2018
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Barse wrote:
Both the Chalcocite Pagoda and the Tomb of the Silken Thread end in Watchful checks that are pretty hard to fail - so of course, I tanked an alt's stats in an attempt to see some failure text.
The Chalcocite Pagoda Failure
The Tomb of the Silken Thread Failure
[spoiler]The reward for the fail-version of the Pagoda is 2x Antique Mysteries and 1x Magnificent Diamond. The reward for the fail-version of the Silken Thread is 1x Parabola Linen.[/spoiler]
I think some enterprising folks from the Discord have put my findings on the wiki already, but the extra lore from the failures is interesting!
EDIT: As the expeditions currently stand, if your Watchful is over 100 it's impossible for you to see these alternate (admittedly slightly worse) results.
edited by Barse on 9/6/2018
Finally a way of getting some precious gems that isn't reliant on nearly pure chance.
But wait, watchful is my highest stat....... NOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!
edited by MrEvil135 on 9/6/2018
--
This account represents the FALLEN CITIES INVESTIGATION TEAM. Our current members
Alejandro: Our proud leader, minor poet, chess piece, Midnighter, Runner of the Oft-Mendacious Gazette. Probably a vampire. Open to any and all social actions
Mr Evil: Vengeful, somewhat insane. Currently is obsessed with the northern cardinal direction. Has dead family members. Wants to go north. Manages this account. North.
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Tyrconnell
Posts: 271
9/6/2018
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Here's a recalculation of EPA:
9.75 actions to acquire 9.75 favours. (I'm ignoring the cost for the moment. Because you only spend 39 supplies, you don't need the full 40!)
9.75 actions and 487.5 rostygold to turn those into 39 supplies.
1 action to start the expedition.
13 actions of buccaneering to get to the end of the expedition, ignoring "A sign?" and rivals.
1 action to complete the expedition.
Total: 34.5 actions
Reward: Either 3 night-whispers (187.5E) or two bright brass skulls and a portfolio of skulls (132.5E). It's not clear what the ratio is, but let's say 50-50 for now, for an average of 160E. Subtract 4.875 for the rostygold spent on supplies and that's 155.125E.
155.125/34.5=4.50 EPA. "A sign?" improves this slightly. The cost of favours makes it slightly lower. Notably, this is not a grind in the classic sense because you're limited by favours.
What about the risk of getting caught by your rival? Using the binomial probability formula with a 50% chance of Rival's Progress increasing, it's 13.3%. That's definitely not negligible. 3 echoes of romantic goods and 1 supply are required. There's still a 1.1% chance of having the Heroic Archaeologist catch up again, but that's rare enough that I'll leave it out.
This also costs only 39 supplies, barring rivals and signs, and you get 40 to prepare. Between the two you'll come out very slightly ahead on supplies, but again, not so much that I think it's important to calculate exactly. Overall you'll get well over 4 EPA.
What about making this a grind? The obvious way is by using money to fund expeditions. At 10 echoes for 4 supplies, though, your profit is 160-100, or 60 echoes for the expedition. That's actually not terrible, but 60/35 will give you about 1.71 EPA, which is reasonable but not exciting.
edited by Tyrconnell on 9/6/2018
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Tyrconnell, a gentleman and doctor of diverse interests and multifarious proclivities
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Tyrconnell
Posts: 271
9/6/2018
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What about the 30 supply expedition?
7.25 actions to acquire 7.25 favours. (You only need 29 supplies, actually, because the first progress is free when starting the expedition.)
7.25 actions and 362.5 rostygold to turn those into 30 supplies.
1 action to start the expedition.
10 actions of buccaneering (or rather, 9 buccaneering and 1 bold) to get to the end of the expedition, ignoring "A sign?" and rivals.
1 action to complete the expedition.
Total: 26.5 actions
Reward: 125 echoes (-3.625 for supplies)
121.375/26.5=4.58
And while your rival, the Lugubrious Seamstress, can catch up, it's very unlikely at 1.1%.
Conclusion: you're better off pursuing the shorter expedition, both for safety and for profitability.
If you buy your supplies with echoes, you spend an extra 7.50E on the way and your eventual profit is 1.887 EPA. That's quite respectable still, but still outdone by selling winsome orphans by a full third of an echo per action.
edited by Tyrconnell on 9/6/2018
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Tyrconnell, a gentleman and doctor of diverse interests and multifarious proclivities
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Tyrconnell
Posts: 271
9/6/2018
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What about the 20 supply expedition?
4.75 actions to acquire favours for 19 supplies
4.75 actions and 237.5 rostygold to turn those into 19 supplies.
1 action to start the expedition.
7 actions of buccaneering to get to the end of the expedition, ignoring "A sign?" (your rival can't catch up.)
1 action to complete the expedition.
Total: 18.5 actions
Reward: 62.5 echoes (-2.375 for supplies)
60.125/18.5=3.25
Still good, but outdone by the others.
edited by Tyrconnell on 9/6/2018
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Tyrconnell, a gentleman and doctor of diverse interests and multifarious proclivities
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Catherine Raymond
Posts: 2518
9/7/2018
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Reused NPC wrote:
A Judgement's Egg from the 30-supply story?
I'm... actually really happy about this. Now I can fill my lodgings with 10 more cats guilt-free!
I will add that it feels sorta... fundamentally off to me that these expeditions don't give Unpredictable Treasures like the other two do. I miss those overpriced bags of oddites, dangit...
It's interesting that the results seem to change after the first time; it remains to be seen whether the other expeditions also give such useful items.
I have mixed feelings about getting such a rare item from a relatively inexpensive story. However, it's a great consolation for those of us who didn't receive enough Regnant Coins to obtain a Judgements' Egg that way.
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Cathy Raymond
http://fallenlondon.com/Profile/cathyr19355
Catherine Raymond aka Mrs. Rykar Malkus http://fallenlondon.com/Profile/Catherine%20Raymond (Gone NORTH)
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Bitty
Posts: 234
9/7/2018
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A WAY TO GRIND SEARING ENIGMAS MY SEEKER ALT IS SO HAPPY
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Tyrconnell
Posts: 271
9/7/2018
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An earlier way. Enigmas were already easily grindable in the Court of the Wakeful Eye. The only problem is getting access to it. Every seeker has to be at least a semi-seasoned expeditioneer.
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Tyrconnell, a gentleman and doctor of diverse interests and multifarious proclivities
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Plynkes
Posts: 631
9/7/2018
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Pardon my ignorance, but what use is a Judgement's Egg beyond its monetary value? The wiki says it has no use, but a couple of people on this thread have made cryptic references to cats. What's that all about?
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"Then tell Wind and Fire where to stop, but don't tell me."
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Parvorus
Posts: 42
9/7/2018
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Use-wise Judgement's Eggs are worthless, but until recently they used to be a Fate-locked item. Then, when the Mysteries were solved, one of the available items to buy was a Judgement's Egg, while the cheapest item was a cat companion.
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Feel free to send me anything other than Photographers.
►My Profile◄
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Dudebro Pyro
Posts: 756
9/7/2018
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Tyrconnell wrote:
What about the 30 supply expedition?
[...]
If you buy your supplies with echoes, you spend an extra 7.50E on the way and your eventual profit is 1.887 EPA.
How about buying strong-backed labour? Isn't that a lot more efficient than raw echoes?
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Dudebro Pyro, eccentric scholar
Spare Starveling Kitties always welcome. I collect them.
For that matter, send me your unwanted cat boxes too.
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Plynkes
Posts: 631
9/7/2018
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Parvorus wrote:
Use-wise Judgement's Eggs are worthless, but until recently they used to be a Fate-locked item. Then, when the Mysteries were solved, one of the available items to buy was a Judgement's Egg, while the cheapest item was a cat companion.
Ah, thank you. So it was the mysteries, then. Didn't pay heed to any of that, perhaps I should have. Oh well. I think I have enough companions already.
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"Then tell Wind and Fire where to stop, but don't tell me."
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Jolanda Swan
Posts: 1789
9/7/2018
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Does anyone have the echoes for the "failed" options? My Watchful is too high to get them.
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Lover of all things beautiful, secret admirer of ugly truths, fond of the Parabola Sun... and always delighted to role play.
http://fallenlondon.com/profile/Jolanda%20Swan
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